Just Energy Group Inc Valuation – August 2018 $TSE:JE

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Just Energy Group Inc. (Just Energy) is an energy management solutions provider engaged in electricity, natural gas, solar and green energy. The Company’s segments include Consumer Energy and Commercial Energy. The Company operates in the United States, Canada and the United Kingdom, offering a range of energy products, including long-term fixed-price, variable rate and flat bill programs; home energy management services, including smart thermostats and tools to manage energy use at the appliance level, and residential solar panel installations. It markets under the brands, such as Just Energy, Hudson Energy, Amigo Energy, GreenStar Energy, Just Solar, Tara Energy and TerraPass. Just Energy’s commercial business is operated primarily through Hudson Energy. Hudson Energy offers fixed and variable rate natural gas and electricity contracts, as well as customized products. Just Energy also offers green products through its JustGreen Electricity and Natural Gas and TerraPass programs.


Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of TSE-JE – August 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $557,962,000 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.25 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 64.83% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 4.35 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 5.09 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.25 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 1.94 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass


Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value


EPSmg $1.15
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $44.35
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade C
MG Value based on 3% Growth $16.70
MG Value based on 0% Growth $9.79
Market Implied Growth Rate -2.08%
Current Price $5.01
% of Intrinsic Value 11.30%

Just Energy Group Inc does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the small size, low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets, and the lack of earnings stability over the last five years. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $-0.08 in 2015 to an estimated $1.15 for 2019. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 2.08% annual earnings loss over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Just Energy Group Inc revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $3.5. The company pays a dividend of $0.5 per share, for a yield of 10%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 4.35, which was below the industry average of 23.61, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-1.37.

Just Energy Group Inc receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$1.37
Graham Number $3.50
PEmg 4.35
Current Ratio 1.25
PB Ratio 5.09
Current Dividend $0.50
Dividend Yield 9.98%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0



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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 3/1/2018
Total Current Assets $1,095,578,000
Total Current Liabilities $877,875,000
Long-Term Debt $422,053,000
Total Assets $1,646,809,000
Intangible Assets $401,926,000
Total Liabilities $1,416,066,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 234,433,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $0.35
Mar2018 $2.62
Mar2017 $2.42
Mar2016 $0.43
Mar2015 -$3.07
Mar2014 $0.94
Mar2013 $3.27
Mar2012 -$0.92
Mar2011 $2.40
Mar2010 $1.79
Mar2009 -$10.03
Mar2008 $1.41
Mar2007 $0.88
Mar2006 $0.48
Mar2005 $0.35

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.15
Mar2018 $1.26
Mar2017 $0.65
Mar2016 -$0.11
Mar2015 -$0.08
Mar2014 $1.44
Mar2013 $0.89
Mar2012 -$0.55
Mar2011 -$0.48
Mar2010 -$1.65
Mar2009 -$2.70
Mar2008 $0.85
Mar2007 $0.49
Mar2006 $0.25
Mar2005 $0.12

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Just Energy Group Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $TSE-JE

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The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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