Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Canadian National Railway Company, incorporated on August 24, 1995, is engaged in the rail and related transportation business. The Company’s network of approximately 20,000 route miles of track spans Canada and mid-America, connecting approximately three coasts, including the Atlantic, the Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico and serving the cities and ports of Vancouver, Prince Rupert (British Columbia), Montreal, Halifax, New Orleans, and Mobile (Alabama), and the metropolitan areas of Toronto, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Calgary, Chicago, Memphis, Detroit, Duluth (Minnesota)/Superior (Wisconsin), and Jackson (Mississippi), with connections to all points in North America. The Company’s network and connections to all Class I railroads provide its customers access to the three North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) nations. The Company carries over 300 million tons of cargo, serving exporters, importers, retailers, farmers and manufacturers. The Company’s freight includes seven commodity groups representing a portfolio of goods, including petroleum and chemicals, metals and minerals, forest products, coal, grain and fertilizers, intermodal and automotive.
Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:
Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?
|Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.|
|1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise||Market Cap > $2Bil||$78,467,470,000||Pass|
|2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Current Ratio > 2||0.64||Fail|
|3. Earnings Stability||Positive EPS for 10 years prior||Pass|
|4. Dividend Record||Dividend Payments for 10 years prior||Pass|
|5. Earnings Growth||Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end||151.70%||Pass|
|6. Moderate PEmg Ratio||PEmg < 20||20.74||Fail|
|7. Moderate Price to Assets||PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50||4.88||Fail|
|Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.|
|1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Current Ratio > 1.5||0.64||Fail|
|2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Debt to NCA < 1.1||-5.93||Fail|
|3. Earnings Stability||Positive EPS for 5 years prior||Pass|
|4. Dividend Record||Currently Pays Dividend||Pass|
|5. Earnings Growth||EPSmg greater than 5 years ago||Pass|
Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value
|MG Growth Estimate||10.69%|
|MG Value based on 3% Growth||$80.19|
|MG Value based on 0% Growth||$47.01|
|Market Implied Growth Rate||6.12%|
|% of Intrinsic Value||69.42%|
Canadian National Railway (USA) does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.
As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $3.23 in 2014 to an estimated $5.53 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 6.12% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.
At the time of valuation, further research into Canadian National Railway (USA) revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $52.54. The company pays a dividend of $1.65 per share, for a yield of 1.4% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 20.74, which was below the industry average of 21.35, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-26.51.
Canadian National Railway (USA) receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C+.
Stage 3: Information for Further Research
|Net Current Asset Value (NCAV)||-$26.51|
|Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth||20|
|ModernGraham tagged articles||Morningstar|
|Google Finance||MSN Money|
|Yahoo Finance||Seeking Alpha|
Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures
|Balance Sheet Information||6/1/2018|
|Total Current Assets||$2,842,000,000|
|Total Current Liabilities||$4,430,000,000|
|Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)||739,100,000|
Earnings Per Share History
|Next Fiscal Year Estimate||$5.47|
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History
|Next Fiscal Year Estimate||$5.53|
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The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours. See my current holdings here. This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions. ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner. Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.