Coherent Inc Valuation – August 2018 $COHR

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Coherent, Inc., incorporated on January 11, 1989, is a photonics manufacturer. The Company is engaged in designing, manufacturing, servicing and marketing of lasers and related accessories for a range of scientific, commercial and industrial applications. The Company operates through two segments: Specialty Lasers and Systems (SLS) and Commercial Lasers and Components (CLC). The Specialty Lasers and Systems segment develops and manufactures configurable products serving the microelectronics, scientific research and government programs, and original equipment manufacturer (OEM) components and instrumentation markets. The Commercial Lasers and Components segment focuses on higher volume products that are offered in set configurations. The product architectures are designed for exchange at the point of use such that substantially all product service and repairs are based upon advanced replacement and depot (that is factory) repair. CLC’s primary markets include materials processing, OEM components, and instrumentation and microelectronics.


Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of COHR – August 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $3,994,005,261 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 3.10 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 515.49% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 25.72 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 3.53 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 3.10 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.53 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Fail
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass


Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $7.08
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $272.61
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade B-
MG Value based on 3% Growth $102.67
MG Value based on 0% Growth $60.19
Market Implied Growth Rate 8.61%
Current Price $182.10
% of Intrinsic Value 66.80%

Coherent, Inc. is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the lack of dividends. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.62 in 2014 to an estimated $7.08 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 8.61% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Coherent, Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $106.68. The company does not pay a dividend. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 25.72, which was below the industry average of 53.7, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $8.02.

Coherent, Inc. performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B-.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) $8.02
Graham Number $106.68
PEmg 25.72
Current Ratio 3.10
PB Ratio 3.53
Current Dividend $0.00
Dividend Yield 0.00%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 3/1/2018
Total Current Assets $1,247,407,000
Total Current Liabilities $401,968,000
Long-Term Debt $449,653,000
Total Assets $2,336,585,000
Intangible Assets $641,563,000
Total Liabilities $1,046,904,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 25,010,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $10.71
Sep2017 $8.36
Sep2016 $3.58
Sep2015 $3.06
Sep2014 $2.36
Sep2013 $2.70
Sep2012 $2.62
Sep2011 $3.66
Sep2010 $1.47
Sep2009 -$1.45
Sep2008 $0.83
Sep2007 $0.50
Sep2006 $1.44
Sep2005 $1.23
Sep2004 $0.55
Sep2003 -$1.56
Sep2002 -$2.40
Sep2001 $3.50
Sep2000 $2.24
Sep1999 $0.66
Sep1998 $0.73

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $7.08
Sep2017 $4.85
Sep2016 $3.02
Sep2015 $2.78
Sep2014 $2.62
Sep2013 $2.43
Sep2012 $2.01
Sep2011 $1.47
Sep2010 $0.43
Sep2009 $0.11
Sep2008 $0.90
Sep2007 $0.77
Sep2006 $0.55
Sep2005 $0.16
Sep2004 -$0.10
Sep2003 -$0.12
Sep2002 $0.72

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

12 Best Stocks for Value Investors This Week – 2/4/17
Coherent Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $COHR

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The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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