Stocks Telecom

Consolidated Communications Holdings Inc Valuation – August 2018 $CNSL

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Consolidated Communications Holdings, Inc., incorporated on March 22, 2002, is a holding company with operating subsidiaries that provide integrated communications services in consumer, commercial and carrier channels in California, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Texas and Wisconsin. The Company operates as both an Incumbent Local Exchange Carrier (ILEC) and a Competitive Local Exchange Carrier (CLEC) dependent upon the territory served. The Company provides a range of services and products that include local and long-distance service, broadband Internet access, video services, Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP), private line services, carrier grade access services, network capacity services over its regional fiber optic networks, cloud data services, data center and managed services, directory publishing, equipment sales and cloud data services. The Company markets services to its residential customers either individually or as a bundled package.

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of CNSL – August 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $778,590,711 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 0.84 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -72.95% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 66.16 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.41 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 0.84 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 -51.80 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $0.16
MG Growth Estimate -4.25%
MG Value $0.00
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade D
MG Value based on 3% Growth $2.38
MG Value based on 0% Growth $1.39
Market Implied Growth Rate 28.83%
Current Price $10.85
% of Intrinsic Value N/A

Consolidated Communications Holdings Inc does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the small size, low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the high PEmg ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets, and the lack of earnings stability or growth over the last five years. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $0.54 in 2014 to an estimated $0.16 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 28.83% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Consolidated Communications Holdings Inc revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $0. The company pays a dividend of $1.55 per share, for a yield of 14.3%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 66.16, which was above the industry average of 37.58. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-41.59.

Consolidated Communications Holdings Inc scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$41.59
Graham Number $0.00
PEmg 66.16
Current Ratio 0.84
PB Ratio 1.41
Current Dividend $1.55
Dividend Yield 14.29%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 3/1/2018
Total Current Assets $228,853,000
Total Current Liabilities $273,591,000
Long-Term Debt $2,317,398,000
Total Assets $3,708,864,000
Intangible Assets $1,325,472,000
Total Liabilities $3,164,761,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 70,598,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate -$0.60
Dec2017 $1.07
Dec2016 $0.29
Dec2015 -$0.02
Dec2014 $0.35
Dec2013 $0.76
Dec2012 $0.15
Dec2011 $0.88
Dec2010 $1.09
Dec2009 $0.84
Dec2008 $0.42
Dec2007 $0.44
Dec2006 $0.47
Dec2005 -$0.83
Dec2004 -$1.79
Dec2003 -$0.33

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $0.16
Dec2017 $0.53
Dec2016 $0.27
Dec2015 $0.32
Dec2014 $0.54
Dec2013 $0.67
Dec2012 $0.64
Dec2011 $0.84
Dec2010 $0.76
Dec2009 $0.49
Dec2008 $0.12
Dec2007 -$0.15
Dec2006 -$0.47
Dec2005 -$0.82
Dec2004 -$0.68
Dec2003 -$0.11

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Consolidated Communications Holdings Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $CNSL

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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