Fertilizer Stocks

Scotts Miracle Gro Co Valuation – August 2018 $SMG

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (Scotts Miracle-Gro), incorporated on November 22, 2004, is a manufacturer and marketer of branded consumer lawn and garden products. The Company’s segments include Global Consumer. In North America, its brands include Scotts and Turf Builder lawn and grass seed products; Miracle-Gro, Nature’s Care, Scotts, LiquaFeed and Osmocote gardening and landscape products; and Ortho, Roundup, Home Defense and Tomcat branded insect control, weed control and rodent control products. In the United Kingdom, its brands include Miracle-Gro plant fertilizers; Roundup, Weedol and Pathclear herbicides; EverGreen lawn fertilizers, and Levington gardening and landscape products.


Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of SMG – August 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $4,517,601,716 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.81 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 9.14% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 31.94 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 9.12 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.81 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 2.64 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass


Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $2.47
MG Growth Estimate 0.09%
MG Value $21.40
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade D
MG Value based on 3% Growth $35.75
MG Value based on 0% Growth $20.96
Market Implied Growth Rate 11.72%
Current Price $78.75
% of Intrinsic Value 368.03%

Scotts Miracle-Gro Co does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the net current assets, and the lack of earnings stability over the last five years. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.45 in 2014 to an estimated $2.47 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 11.72% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Scotts Miracle-Gro Co revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $0. The company pays a dividend of $2.03 per share, for a yield of 2.6%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 31.94, which was above the industry average of 30.86. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-25.09.

Scotts Miracle-Gro Co scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$25.09
Graham Number $0.00
PEmg 31.94
Current Ratio 1.81
PB Ratio 9.12
Current Dividend $2.03
Dividend Yield 2.58%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 8

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 3/1/2018
Total Current Assets $1,639,300,000
Total Current Liabilities $906,100,000
Long-Term Debt $1,937,700,000
Total Assets $3,575,500,000
Intangible Assets $1,244,400,000
Total Liabilities $3,079,600,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 57,400,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate -$0.12
Sep2017 $3.63
Sep2016 $5.09
Sep2015 $2.57
Sep2014 $2.65
Sep2013 $2.57
Sep2012 $1.71
Sep2011 $2.54
Sep2010 $3.02
Sep2009 $2.32
Sep2008 -$0.17
Sep2007 $1.69
Sep2006 $1.91
Sep2005 $1.47
Sep2004 $1.52
Sep2003 $1.62
Sep2002 $1.31
Sep2001 $0.25
Sep2000 $1.13
Sep1999 $1.04
Sep1998 $0.60

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.47
Sep2017 $3.61
Sep2016 $3.37
Sep2015 $2.47
Sep2014 $2.45
Sep2013 $2.38
Sep2012 $2.15
Sep2011 $2.21
Sep2010 $1.94
Sep2009 $1.42
Sep2008 $1.07
Sep2007 $1.68
Sep2006 $1.64
Sep2005 $1.41
Sep2004 $1.31
Sep2003 $1.16
Sep2002 $0.91

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

12 Best Stocks for Value Investors This Week – 2/4/17
Scotts Miracle-Gro Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $SMG

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Scotts Miracle-Gro Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $SMG
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CF Industries Holdings Inc Valuation – August 2016 $CF
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The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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