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Food Processing Stocks

Core-Mark Holding Co Inc Valuation – August 2018 $CORE

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Core-Mark Holding Company, Inc., incorporated on August 20, 2004, is a wholesale distributor to the convenience retail industry in North America. The Company provides sales, marketing, distribution and logistics services. As of December 31, 2016, the Company offered services to over 43,000 customer locations across the United States and Canada through 30 distribution centers (excluding two distribution facilities that are operated by it as a third party logistics provider). The Company’s segments include the United States, Canada and Corporate. The Company’s primary customer base consists of traditional convenience stores, as well as alternative outlets selling consumer packaged goods. The Company’s traditional convenience store customers include various national and super-regional convenience store operators, as well as independently owned convenience stores. Its alternative outlet customers include a range of store formats, including grocery stores, drug stores, liquor stores, cigarette and tobacco shops, hotel gift shops, military exchanges, college and corporate campuses, casinos, hardware stores, airport concessions, and other specialty and small format stores that carry convenience products.

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of CORE – August 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $1,149,736,390 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 2.09 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 48.48% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 24.22 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 2.08 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 2.09 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.64 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $1.01
MG Growth Estimate 4.18%
MG Value $17.05
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade C
MG Value based on 3% Growth $14.67
MG Value based on 0% Growth $8.60
Market Implied Growth Rate 7.86%
Current Price $24.51
% of Intrinsic Value 143.71%

Core-Mark Holding Company, Inc. is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the small size, poor dividend history, and the high PEmg ratio. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $0.79 in 2014 to an estimated $1.01 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 7.86% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Core-Mark Holding Company, Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $17.49. The company pays a dividend of $0.37 per share, for a yield of 1.5% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 24.22, which was below the industry average of 26.3, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $3.16.

Core-Mark Holding Company, Inc. receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) $3.16
Graham Number $17.49
PEmg 24.22
Current Ratio 2.09
PB Ratio 2.08
Current Dividend $0.37
Dividend Yield 1.51%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 4

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 3/1/2018
Total Current Assets $1,270,200,000
Total Current Liabilities $609,200,000
Long-Term Debt $420,000,000
Total Assets $1,669,500,000
Intangible Assets $129,800,000
Total Liabilities $1,124,400,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 46,200,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.13
Dec2017 $0.72
Dec2016 $1.17
Dec2015 $1.11
Dec2014 $0.92
Dec2013 $0.90
Dec2012 $0.73
Dec2011 $0.56
Dec2010 $0.39
Dec2009 $1.09
Dec2008 $0.41
Dec2007 $0.54
Dec2006 $0.47
Dec2005 $0.34
Dec2004 $1.43
Dec2003 -$6.84
Dec2002 $1.02
Dec2001 $0.45

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.01
Dec2017 $0.96
Dec2016 $1.04
Dec2015 $0.93
Dec2014 $0.79
Dec2013 $0.73
Dec2012 $0.64
Dec2011 $0.60
Dec2010 $0.60
Dec2009 $0.66
Dec2008 $0.51
Dec2007 $0.11
Dec2006 -$0.31
Dec2005 -$0.71
Dec2004 -$1.08
Dec2003 -$1.92
Dec2002 $0.46

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Core-Mark Holding Company Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $CORE

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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