Software Stocks

SPS Commerce Inc Valuation – August 2018 $SPSC

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): SPS Commerce, Inc., incorporated on April 17, 2001, is a provider of cloud-based supply chain management solutions, providing network-proven fulfillment, sourcing and item assortment management solutions, along with retail performance analytics. The Company provides its solutions through the SPS Commerce platform, a cloud-based product suite that manages the way suppliers, retailers, distributors and logistics firms orchestrate the sourcing, set up of new vendors and items, and fulfillment of products that customers buy from retailers and suppliers. The Fulfillment solution provides fulfillment automation and replaces or augments an organization’s existing trading partner electronic communication infrastructure, enabling suppliers to have visibility into the journey of an order and comply with retailers’ rule books and enabling the electronic exchange of information among various trading partners through various protocols.

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of SPSC – August 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $1,599,063,521 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 4.96 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 0.68% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 187.29 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 5.60 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 4.96 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.00 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Fail
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $0.50
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $19.33
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade F
MG Value based on 3% Growth $7.28
MG Value based on 0% Growth $4.27
Market Implied Growth Rate 89.40%
Current Price $94.02
% of Intrinsic Value 486.47%

SPS Commerce, Inc. does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the small size, insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the lack of earnings stability over the last five years, and the lack of dividends. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $0.25 in 2014 to an estimated $0.5 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 89.4% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into SPS Commerce, Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $21.57. The company does not pay a dividend. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 187.29, which was above the industry average of 47.04. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $10.42.

SPS Commerce, Inc. scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of F.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) $10.42
Graham Number $21.57
PEmg 187.29
Current Ratio 4.96
PB Ratio 5.60
Current Dividend $0.00
Dividend Yield 0.00%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 6/1/2018
Total Current Assets $239,886,000
Total Current Liabilities $48,378,000
Long-Term Debt $0
Total Assets $351,673,000
Intangible Assets $64,757,000
Total Liabilities $56,984,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 17,549,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.28
Dec2017 -$0.14
Dec2016 $0.33
Dec2015 $0.27
Dec2014 $0.16
Dec2013 $0.07
Dec2012 $0.09
Dec2011 $1.08
Dec2010 $0.25
Dec2009 $0.13
Dec2008 -$6.45

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $0.50
Dec2017 $0.12
Dec2016 $0.23
Dec2015 $0.23
Dec2014 $0.25
Dec2013 $0.31
Dec2012 -$0.04
Dec2011 -$0.41
Dec2010 -$1.17
Dec2009 -$1.68
Dec2008 -$2.15

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

SPS Commerce Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $SPSC

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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