Company ProfileÂ (excerpt from Reuters): Cray Inc., incorporated on December 7, 1987, is engaged in designing, developing, manufacturing, marketing and servicing the high performance computing (HPC) market, primarily categories of systems known as supercomputers. The Company provides data analytics, artificial intelligence and storage solutions. The Company’s segments include Supercomputing, Storage and Data Management, Maintenance and Support, and Engineering Services and Other. The Supercomputing segment includes a suite of supercomputer systems, which are used by research and engineering centers in universities, government laboratories and commercial institutions. The Storage and Data Management segment includes Cray Data Warp and Sonexion, as well as other third-party storage products and their ongoing maintenance and system analysts. The Maintenance and Support segment provides ongoing maintenance of Cray supercomputers, big data storage and analytics systems, as well as system analysts. The Engineering Services and Other segment includes the Company’s analytics business and Custom Engineering.
Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:
Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?
|Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.|
|1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise||Market Cap > $2Bil||$911,171,772||Fail|
|2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Current Ratio > 2||4.15||Pass|
|3. Earnings Stability||Positive EPS for 10 years prior||Fail|
|4. Dividend Record||Dividend Payments for 10 years prior||Fail|
|5. Earnings Growth||Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end||-651.85%||Fail|
|6. Moderate PEmg Ratio||PEmg < 20||-19.34||Fail|
|7. Moderate Price to Assets||PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50||2.35||Fail|
|Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.|
|1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Current Ratio > 1.5||4.15||Pass|
|2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Debt to NCA < 1.1||0.00||Pass|
|3. Earnings Stability||Positive EPS for 5 years prior||Fail|
|4. Dividend Record||Currently Pays Dividend||Fail|
|5. Earnings Growth||EPSmg greater than 5 years ago||Fail|
Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value
|MG Growth Estimate||-4.25%|
|MG Value based on 3% Growth||-$16.09|
|MG Value based on 0% Growth||-$9.43|
|Market Implied Growth Rate||-13.92%|
|% of Intrinsic Value||312.34%|
Cray Inc. does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the small size, insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the lack of earnings stability or growth over the last five years, and the lack of dividends. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.
As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $1.67 in 2014 to an estimated $-1.11 for 2018. This level of negative earnings does not support a positive valuation.As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.
At the time of valuation, further research into Cray Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $0. The company does not pay a dividend. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was -19.34, which was below the industry average of 53.7, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $6.87.
Cray Inc. scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D.
Stage 3: Information for Further Research
|Net Current Asset Value (NCAV)||$6.87|
|Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth||0|
|ModernGraham tagged articles||Morningstar|
|Google Finance||MSN Money|
|Yahoo Finance||Seeking Alpha|
Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures
|Balance Sheet Information||6/1/2018|
|Total Current Assets||$427,882,000|
|Total Current Liabilities||$103,212,000|
|Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)||40,616,000|
Earnings Per Share History
|Next Fiscal Year Estimate||-$1.40|
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History
|Next Fiscal Year Estimate||-$1.11|
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The author did not hold aÂ position in any company mentioned in this articleÂ at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours. Â See my current holdings here. Â This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to aÂ registeredÂ investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions. Â ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner. Â Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.