Stocks Utilities

Spire Inc Valuation – August 2018 $SR

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Spire Inc., formerly The Laclede Group, Inc., incorporated on October 18, 2000, is engaged to transform its business and pursue growth by growing its gas utility business through prudent investment in infrastructure upgrades and organic growth initiatives; acquire and integrate gas utilities; modernize its gas assets, and invest in innovation. The Company has two business segments, which include gas utility and gas marketing. The gas utility segment includes the regulated operations of Laclede Gas Company (Laclede Gas), Alabama Gas Corporation (Alagasco) and EnergySouth, Inc. (EnergySouth). The gas marketing segment includes Laclede Energy Resources, Inc. (LER), a subsidiary engaged in the marketing of natural gas and related activities on a non-regulated basis.

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of SR – August 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $3,798,503,176 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 0.72 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 33.99% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 20.93 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 0.80 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 0.72 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 -8.83 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $3.57
MG Growth Estimate 7.10%
MG Value $81.07
Opinion Fairly Valued
MG Grade C-
MG Value based on 3% Growth $51.77
MG Value based on 0% Growth $30.35
Market Implied Growth Rate 6.22%
Current Price $74.75
% of Intrinsic Value 92.21%

Spire Inc does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, high PEmg ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Fairly Valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.42 in 2014 to an estimated $3.57 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 6.22% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value within a margin of safety relative to the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Spire Inc revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $63.11. The company pays a dividend of $2.1 per share, for a yield of 2.8%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 20.93, which was below the industry average of 23.61, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-27.86.

Spire Inc receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C-.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$27.86
Graham Number $63.11
PEmg 20.93
Current Ratio 0.72
PB Ratio 0.80
Current Dividend $2.10
Dividend Yield 2.81%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 14

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 6/1/2018
Total Current Assets $584,900,000
Total Current Liabilities $814,100,000
Long-Term Debt $2,024,500,000
Total Assets $6,584,900,000
Intangible Assets $1,171,600,000
Total Liabilities $1,969,500,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 49,700,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $4.29
Sep2017 $3.43
Sep2016 $3.24
Sep2015 $3.16
Sep2014 $2.35
Sep2013 $2.02
Sep2012 $2.79
Sep2011 $2.86
Sep2010 $2.43
Sep2009 $2.89
Sep2008 $3.58
Sep2007 $2.31
Sep2006 $2.30
Sep2005 $0.02
Sep2004 $0.02
Sep2003 $1.82
Sep2002 $1.18
Sep2001 $1.61
Sep2000 $1.37
Sep1999 $1.43
Sep1998 $1.58

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.57
Sep2017 $3.09
Sep2016 $2.85
Sep2015 $2.65
Sep2014 $2.42
Sep2013 $2.51
Sep2012 $2.80
Sep2011 $2.81
Sep2010 $2.76
Sep2009 $2.69
Sep2008 $2.27
Sep2007 $1.51
Sep2006 $1.10
Sep2005 $0.64
Sep2004 $1.03
Sep2003 $1.52
Sep2002 $1.39

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Spire Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $SR

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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