Canadian Medical Stocks

Chartwell Retirement Residences Valuation – August 2018 $TSE:CSH.UN

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Chartwell Retirement Residences is an unincorporated, open-ended trust. The Company indirectly owns, manages and operates a range of seniors housing communities from independent living through assisted living to long term care. Its segments include Canadian Retirement Operations and Canadian Long Term Care Operations. It owns and operates senior residences in Canada. Its portfolio of residences includes independent living residences for seniors that include retirement units/townhouses/bungalows providing meals and general services; independent supported living residences for seniors that include retirement units/townhouses/bungalows with household general services; assisted living residences for seniors requiring personal care services; memory care units for seniors having Alzheimer’s or other form of dementia and requiring personal care services, and Long term care residences for people requiring professional nursing care on a daily basis and over 24-hour supervision.

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of TSE-CSH.UN – August 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $3,254,692,829 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 0.14 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -112.80% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 48.07 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 3.30 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 0.14 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 -5.89 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $0.32
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $12.36
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade D
MG Value based on 3% Growth $4.65
MG Value based on 0% Growth $2.73
Market Implied Growth Rate 19.78%
Current Price $15.43
% of Intrinsic Value 124.85%

Chartwell Retirement Residences does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets, and the lack of earnings stability over the last five years. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $-0.22 in 2014 to an estimated $0.32 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 19.78% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Chartwell Retirement Residences revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $3.45. The company pays a dividend of $0.57 per share, for a yield of 3.7%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 48.07, which was above the industry average of 44.66. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-10.83.

Chartwell Retirement Residences scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$10.83
Graham Number $3.45
PEmg 48.07
Current Ratio 0.14
PB Ratio 3.30
Current Dividend $0.57
Dividend Yield 3.71%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 3

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 6/1/2018
Total Current Assets $52,301,000
Total Current Liabilities $378,657,000
Long-Term Debt $1,923,491,000
Total Assets $3,311,179,000
Intangible Assets $55,343,000
Total Liabilities $2,328,737,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 210,226,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $0.11
Dec2017 $0.06
Dec2016 $0.03
Dec2015 $1.99
Dec2014 -$0.05
Dec2013 $0.14
Dec2012 -$0.80
Dec2011 -$0.43
Dec2010 -$0.43
Dec2009 -$0.68
Dec2008 -$1.03
Dec2007 -$0.76
Dec2006 -$0.24
Dec2005 -$0.28
Dec2004 -$0.19
Dec2003 -$0.06

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $0.32
Dec2017 $0.43
Dec2016 $0.50
Dec2015 $0.54
Dec2014 -$0.22
Dec2013 -$0.36
Dec2012 -$0.63
Dec2011 -$0.58
Dec2010 -$0.65
Dec2009 -$0.70
Dec2008 -$0.64
Dec2007 -$0.40
Dec2006 -$0.20
Dec2005 -$0.15
Dec2004 -$0.08
Dec2003 -$0.02

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Chartwell Retirement Residences Valuation – Initial Coverage $TSE:CSH.UN

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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