Food Processing Stocks

Lancaster Colony Corp Valuation – August 2018 $LANC

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Lancaster Colony Corporation, incorporated on October 11, 1991, is a manufacturer and marketer of specialty food products for the retail and foodservice channels. The Company’s food products include Salad dressings and sauces, Vegetable dips and fruit dips, Frozen garlic breads, Frozen Parkerhouse style yeast rolls and dinner rolls, Premium dry egg noodles, Frozen specialty noodles, Croutons and salad toppings, Flatbread wraps and pizza crusts, and Caviar. Its brands include Marzetti, Marzetti Simply Dressed, Cardini’s, Girard’s, Katherine’s Kitchen, New York BRAND Bakery, Mamma Bella, Mamma Bella’s, Sister Schubert’s, Mary B’s, Inn Maid, Amish Kitchen, Reames, Aunt Vi’s, Flatout and Romanoff.

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of LANC – August 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $4,225,881,575 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 4.04 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 23.38% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 33.08 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 6.48 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 4.04 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.00 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $4.65
MG Growth Estimate 4.96%
MG Value $85.67
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade C+
MG Value based on 3% Growth $67.41
MG Value based on 0% Growth $39.51
Market Implied Growth Rate 12.29%
Current Price $153.79
% of Intrinsic Value 179.51%

Lancaster Colony Corp. is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $3.49 in 2015 to an estimated $4.65 for 2019. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 12.29% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Lancaster Colony Corp. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $51.52. The company pays a dividend of $2.35 per share, for a yield of 1.5% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 33.08, which was above the industry average of 26.3. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $8.25.

Lancaster Colony Corp. receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C+.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) $8.25
Graham Number $51.52
PEmg 33.08
Current Ratio 4.04
PB Ratio 6.48
Current Dividend $2.35
Dividend Yield 1.53%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 20

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 6/1/2018
Total Current Assets $378,877,000
Total Current Liabilities $93,767,000
Long-Term Debt $0
Total Assets $804,491,000
Intangible Assets $0
Total Liabilities $152,209,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 27,467,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $4.97
Jun2018 $4.92
Jun2017 $4.20
Jun2016 $4.44
Jun2015 $3.72
Jun2014 $2.74
Jun2013 $3.99
Jun2012 $3.51
Jun2011 $3.84
Jun2010 $4.07
Jun2009 $3.17
Jun2008 $1.28
Jun2007 $1.45
Jun2006 $2.48
Jun2005 $2.56
Jun2004 $2.04
Jun2003 $3.11
Jun2002 $2.49
Jun2001 $2.37
Jun2000 $2.51
Jun1999 $2.28

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $4.65
Jun2018 $4.33
Jun2017 $3.96
Jun2016 $3.79
Jun2015 $3.49
Jun2014 $3.46
Jun2013 $3.79
Jun2012 $3.52
Jun2011 $3.27
Jun2010 $2.82
Jun2009 $2.19
Jun2008 $1.79
Jun2007 $2.14
Jun2006 $2.50
Jun2005 $2.51
Jun2004 $2.49
Jun2003 $2.66

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Lancaster Colony Corp Valuation – Initial Coverage $LANC

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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