Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc., incorporated on March 30, 2005, is a pharmaceutical company focused on developing and commercializing products for the treatment of central nervous system (CNS) diseases. The Company offers Oxtellar XR (extended-release oxcarbazepine) and Trokendi XR (extended-release topiramate), its two treatments for patients with epilepsy. In addition, it is developing multiple product candidates in psychiatry to address unmet medical needs and market opportunities for the treatment of impulsive aggression (IA) and for the treatment of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). It is developing SPN-810 (molindone hydrochloride) to treat IA in patients having ADHD. It is developing SPN-812 (viloxazine hydrochloride) as a candidate to treat patients having ADHD.
Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:
Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?
|Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.|
|1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise||Market Cap > $2Bil||$2,246,336,172||Pass|
|2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Current Ratio > 2||2.74||Pass|
|3. Earnings Stability||Positive EPS for 10 years prior||Fail|
|4. Dividend Record||Dividend Payments for 10 years prior||Fail|
|5. Earnings Growth||Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end||21.91%||Fail|
|6. Moderate PEmg Ratio||PEmg < 20||33.72||Fail|
|7. Moderate Price to Assets||PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50||6.04||Fail|
|Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.|
|1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Current Ratio > 1.5||2.74||Pass|
|2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Debt to NCA < 1.1||1.78||Fail|
|3. Earnings Stability||Positive EPS for 5 years prior||Fail|
|4. Dividend Record||Currently Pays Dividend||Fail|
|5. Earnings Growth||EPSmg greater than 5 years ago||Pass|
Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value
|MG Growth Estimate||15.00%|
|MG Value based on 3% Growth||$18.71|
|MG Value based on 0% Growth||$10.97|
|Market Implied Growth Rate||12.61%|
|% of Intrinsic Value||87.59%|
Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the net current assets, and the lack of earnings stability over the last five years, and the lack of dividends. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.
As for a valuation, the company appears to be Fairly Valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $-0.89 in 2014 to an estimated $1.29 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 12.61% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value within a margin of safety relative to the price.
At the time of valuation, further research into Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $14.89. The company does not pay a dividend. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 33.72, which was below the industry average of 42.68, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-3.28.
Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D+.
Stage 3: Information for Further Research
|Net Current Asset Value (NCAV)||-$3.28|
|Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth||0|
|ModernGraham tagged articles||Morningstar|
|Google Finance||MSN Money|
|Yahoo Finance||Seeking Alpha|
Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures
|Balance Sheet Information||6/1/2018|
|Total Current Assets||$284,516,000|
|Total Current Liabilities||$103,934,000|
|Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)||54,203,000|
Earnings Per Share History
|Next Fiscal Year Estimate||$1.89|
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History
|Next Fiscal Year Estimate||$1.29|
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The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours. See my current holdings here. This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions. ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner. Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.