Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc Valuation – August 2018 $SUPN

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc., incorporated on March 30, 2005, is a pharmaceutical company focused on developing and commercializing products for the treatment of central nervous system (CNS) diseases. The Company offers Oxtellar XR (extended-release oxcarbazepine) and Trokendi XR (extended-release topiramate), its two treatments for patients with epilepsy. In addition, it is developing multiple product candidates in psychiatry to address unmet medical needs and market opportunities for the treatment of impulsive aggression (IA) and for the treatment of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). It is developing SPN-810 (molindone hydrochloride) to treat IA in patients having ADHD. It is developing SPN-812 (viloxazine hydrochloride) as a candidate to treat patients having ADHD.


Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of SUPN – August 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $2,246,336,172 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 2.74 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 21.91% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 33.72 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 6.04 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 2.74 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 1.78 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Fail
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass


Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $1.29
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $49.67
Opinion Fairly Valued
MG Grade D+
MG Value based on 3% Growth $18.71
MG Value based on 0% Growth $10.97
Market Implied Growth Rate 12.61%
Current Price $43.50
% of Intrinsic Value 87.59%

Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the net current assets, and the lack of earnings stability over the last five years, and the lack of dividends. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Fairly Valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $-0.89 in 2014 to an estimated $1.29 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 12.61% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value within a margin of safety relative to the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $14.89. The company does not pay a dividend. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 33.72, which was below the industry average of 42.68, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-3.28.

Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D+.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$3.28
Graham Number $14.89
PEmg 33.72
Current Ratio 2.74
PB Ratio 6.04
Current Dividend $0.00
Dividend Yield 0.00%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 6/1/2018
Total Current Assets $284,516,000
Total Current Liabilities $103,934,000
Long-Term Debt $321,920,000
Total Assets $852,799,000
Intangible Assets $33,794,000
Total Liabilities $462,307,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 54,203,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.89
Dec2017 $1.08
Dec2016 $1.76
Dec2015 $0.28
Dec2014 -$0.26
Dec2013 -$2.90
Dec2012 -$2.72
Dec2011 $3.88

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.29
Dec2017 $0.66
Dec2016 $0.04
Dec2015 -$0.66
Dec2014 -$0.89
Dec2013 -$0.92
Dec2012 $0.13
Dec2011 $1.29

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $SUPN

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The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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