American Express Co Valuation – November 2018 $AXP
Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): American Express Company, incorporated on June 10, 1965, together with its subsidiaries, is a global services company. The Company’s principal products and services are charge and credit card products, and travel-related services offered to consumers and businesses around the world. The Company’s segments include the Global Consumer Services Group (GCSG), Global Merchant and Network Services (GMNS), and Global Commercial Services (GCS). The Company’s range of products and services includes network services; merchant acquisition and processing, servicing and settlement, and point-of-sale marketing and information products and services for merchants; other fee services, including fraud prevention services and the design and operation of customer loyalty programs; expense management products and services, and stored value/prepaid products.
Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:
ModernGraham Valuation of AXP – November 2018
Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?
What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?
| Defensive Investor; must pass all 6 of the following tests. | ||||
| 1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise | Market Cap > $2Bil | $92,499,471,317 | Pass | |
| 2. Earnings Stability | Positive EPS for 10 years prior | Pass | ||
| 3. Dividend Record | Dividend Payments for 10 years prior | Pass | ||
| 4. Earnings Growth | Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end | 78.47% | Pass | |
| 5. Moderate PEmg Ratio | PEmg < 20 | 19.86 | Pass | |
| 6. Moderate Price to Assets | PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 | 4.34 | Fail | |
| Enterprising Investor; must pass all 3 of the following tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor. | ||||
| 1. Earnings Stability | Positive EPS for 5 years prior | Pass | ||
| 2. Dividend Record | Currently Pays Dividend | Pass | ||
| 3. Earnings Growth | EPSmg greater than 5 years ago | Pass | ||
Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value
| EPSmg | $5.45 |
| MG Growth Estimate | 2.38% |
| MG Value | $72.33 |
| Opinion | Overvalued |
| MG Grade | C |
| MG Value based on 3% Growth | $79.06 |
| MG Value based on 0% Growth | $46.35 |
| Market Implied Growth Rate | 5.68% |
| Current Price | $108.28 |
| % of Intrinsic Value | 149.71% |
American Express Company is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the high PB ratio. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.
As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $4.71 in 2014 to an estimated $5.45 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 5.68% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.
At the time of valuation, further research into American Express Company revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $59.68. The company pays a dividend of $1.34 per share, for a yield of 1.2% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 19.86, which was below the industry average of 33.02, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry.
American Express Company receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C.
Stage 3: Information for Further Research
| Graham Number | $59.68 |
| PEmg | 19.86 |
| PB Ratio | 4.34 |
| Dividend Yield | 1.24% |
| TTM Dividend | $1.34 |
| Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth | 2 |
Useful Links:
| ModernGraham tagged articles | Morningstar |
| Google Finance | MSN Money |
| Yahoo Finance | Seeking Alpha |
| GuruFocus | SEC Filings |
Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures
| Balance Sheet Information | 9/1/2018 |
| Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation | $55,300,000,000 |
| Total Assets | $189,092,000,000 |
| Intangible Assets | $0 |
| Total Liabilities | $167,632,000,000 |
| Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) | 860,000,000 |
Earnings Per Share History
| EPS History | |
| Next Fiscal Year Estimate | $7.46 |
| Dec2017 | $2.97 |
| Dec2016 | $5.65 |
| Dec2015 | $5.05 |
| Dec2014 | $5.56 |
| Dec2013 | $4.88 |
| Dec2012 | $3.89 |
| Dec2011 | $4.12 |
| Dec2010 | $3.35 |
| Dec2009 | $1.54 |
| Dec2008 | $2.32 |
| Dec2007 | $3.36 |
| Dec2006 | $2.99 |
| Dec2005 | $2.97 |
| Dec2004 | $2.68 |
| Dec2003 | $2.30 |
| Dec2002 | $2.01 |
| Dec2001 | $0.98 |
| Dec2000 | $2.07 |
| Dec1999 | $1.81 |
| Dec1998 | $1.54 |
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History
| EPSmg History | |
| Next Fiscal Year Estimate | $5.45 |
| Dec2017 | $4.57 |
| Dec2016 | $5.25 |
| Dec2015 | $4.94 |
| Dec2014 | $4.71 |
| Dec2013 | $4.04 |
| Dec2012 | $3.43 |
| Dec2011 | $3.11 |
| Dec2010 | $2.64 |
| Dec2009 | $2.40 |
| Dec2008 | $2.84 |
| Dec2007 | $3.02 |
| Dec2006 | $2.77 |
| Dec2005 | $2.50 |
| Dec2004 | $2.18 |
| Dec2003 | $1.90 |
| Dec2002 | $1.69 |
Recommended Reading:
Other ModernGraham posts about the company
Other ModernGraham posts about related companies
Disclaimer:
The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.
