Financial Services Stocks

Goldman Sachs Group Inc Valuation – November 2018 $GS

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., incorporated on July 21, 1998, is an investment banking, securities and investment management company that provides a range of financial services to corporations, financial institutions, governments and individuals. The Company operates in four business segments: Investment Banking, Institutional Client Services, Investing & Lending, and Investment Management. As of December 2016, it had offices in over 30 countries.

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of GS – November 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass all 6 of the following tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $75,183,330,715 Pass
2. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
3. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
4. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 26.44% Fail
5. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 12.05 Pass
6. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 0.91 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass all 3 of the following tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
2. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
3. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $16.77
MG Growth Estimate 2.81%
MG Value $236.89
Opinion Fairly Valued
MG Grade B
MG Value based on 3% Growth $243.13
MG Value based on 0% Growth $142.52
Market Implied Growth Rate 1.78%
Current Price $202.12
% of Intrinsic Value 85.32%

Goldman Sachs Group Inc is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Fairly Valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $14.12 in 2014 to an estimated $16.77 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 1.78% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value within a margin of safety relative to the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Goldman Sachs Group Inc revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $325.35. The company pays a dividend of $2.9 per share, for a yield of 1.4% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 12.05, which was below the industry average of 20.05, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Graham Number $325.35
PEmg 12.05
PB Ratio 0.91
Dividend Yield 1.43%
TTM Dividend $2.90
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 6

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 9/1/2018
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation $255,886,000,000
Total Assets $957,190,000,000
Intangible Assets $4,101,000,000
Total Liabilities $870,428,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 390,500,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $25.05
Dec2017 $9.01
Dec2016 $16.29
Dec2015 $12.14
Dec2014 $17.07
Dec2013 $15.46
Dec2012 $14.13
Dec2011 $4.51
Dec2010 $13.18
Dec2009 $22.13
Nov2008 $4.47
Nov2007 $24.73
Nov2006 $19.69
Nov2005 $11.21
Nov2004 $8.92
Nov2003 $5.87
Nov2002 $4.03
Nov2001 $4.26
Nov2000 $6.00
Nov1999 $5.57

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $16.77
Dec2017 $13.08
Dec2016 $15.08
Dec2015 $13.88
Dec2014 $14.12
Dec2013 $13.06
Dec2012 $11.80
Dec2011 $11.69
Dec2010 $15.80
Dec2009 $16.89
Nov2008 $14.11
Nov2007 $17.32
Nov2006 $12.39
Nov2005 $8.11
Nov2004 $6.31
Nov2003 $5.05
Nov2002 $4.42

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Goldman Sachs Group Inc Valuation – February 2018 $GS
Goldman Sachs Group Inc Valuation – June 2016 $GS
10 Low PE Stocks for the Enterprising Investor – June 2016
Stocks Trading Below Their Graham Number – May 2016
Stocks Trading Below Their Graham Number – March 2016

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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