Banks Stocks

JPMorgan Chase & Co Valuation – November 2018 $JPM

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPMorgan Chase), incorporated on October 28, 1968, is a financial holding company. The Company is engaged in investment banking, financial services for consumers and small businesses, commercial banking, financial transaction processing and asset management. JPMorgan Chase’s activities are organized into four business segments, as well as a Corporate segment. The Company’s segments include Consumer & Community Banking, Corporate & Investment Bank, Commercial Banking, and Asset & Wealth Management. Its principal bank subsidiaries include JPMorgan Chase Bank, National Association (JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A.), a national banking association, and Chase Bank USA, National Association (Chase Bank USA, N.A.), a national banking association that is the Company’s credit card-issuing bank. JPMorgan Chase’s principal nonbank subsidiary is J.P. Morgan Securities LLC (JPMorgan Securities), the United States investment banking firm. The bank and nonbank subsidiaries of JPMorgan Chase operate nationally, as well as through overseas branches and subsidiaries, representative offices and subsidiary foreign banks. The Company’s principal operating subsidiary in the United Kingdom is J.P. Morgan Securities plc, a subsidiary of JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A.

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of JPM – November 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass all 6 of the following tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $365,761,960,005 Pass
2. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
3. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
4. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 103.55% Pass
5. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 15.35 Pass
6. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.44 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass all 3 of the following tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
2. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
3. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $7.17
MG Growth Estimate 7.29%
MG Value $165.46
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade A-
MG Value based on 3% Growth $103.92
MG Value based on 0% Growth $60.92
Market Implied Growth Rate 3.42%
Current Price $109.99
% of Intrinsic Value 66.48%

JPMorgan Chase & Co. qualifies for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor. In fact, the company meets all of the requirements of both investor types, a rare accomplishment indicative of the company’s strong financial position . The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $4.82 in 2014 to an estimated $7.17 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 3.42% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into JPMorgan Chase & Co. revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $118.31. The company pays a dividend of $2.12 per share, for a yield of 1.9% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 15.35, which was below the industry average of 16.94, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. fares extremely well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring an A-.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Graham Number $118.31
PEmg 15.35
PB Ratio 1.44
Dividend Yield 1.93%
TTM Dividend $2.12
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 7

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 9/1/2018
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation $270,124,000,000
Total Assets $2,615,183,000,000
Intangible Assets $54,697,000,000
Total Liabilities $2,356,227,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 3,394,300,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $9.28
Dec2017 $6.31
Dec2016 $6.19
Dec2015 $6.00
Dec2014 $5.29
Dec2013 $4.34
Dec2012 $5.20
Dec2011 $4.48
Dec2010 $3.96
Dec2009 $2.26
Dec2008 $1.35
Dec2007 $4.38
Dec2006 $4.04
Dec2005 $2.38
Dec2004 $1.55
Dec2003 $3.24
Dec2002 $0.80
Dec2001 $0.80
Dec2000 $2.86
Dec1999 $3.69
Dec1998 $2.83

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $7.17
Dec2017 $5.95
Dec2016 $5.65
Dec2015 $5.27
Dec2014 $4.82
Dec2013 $4.41
Dec2012 $4.11
Dec2011 $3.47
Dec2010 $3.05
Dec2009 $2.69
Dec2008 $2.85
Dec2007 $3.44
Dec2006 $2.78
Dec2005 $2.01
Dec2004 $1.84
Dec2003 $2.08
Dec2002 $1.73

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

JPMorgan Chase & Co Valuation – February 2018 $JPM
10 Best Dividend Paying Stocks for the Defensive Investor – August 2016
5 Most Undervalued Stocks in the Dow – August 2016
10 Low PE Stock Picks for the Defensive Investor – August 2016
Best Stocks to Invest In: the Bank Industry – August 2016

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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