Xcel Energy Inc Valuation – December 2018 $XEL

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Xcel Energy Inc., incorporated on June 17, 1909, is a public utility holding company. The Company’s operations include the activity of four utility subsidiaries that serve electric and natural gas customers in eight states. Its segments include regulated electric utility, regulated natural gas utility and all other. Its utility subsidiaries include NSP-Minnesota, NSP-Wisconsin, Public Service Company of Colorado (PSCo) and Southwestern Public Service Co. (SPS), which serve customers in portions of Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas and Wisconsin. Along with WYCO Development LLC (WYCO), a joint venture formed with Colorado Interstate Gas Company, LLC (CIG) to develop and lease natural gas pipelines storage and compression facilities, and WestGas InterState, Inc. (WGI), an interstate natural gas pipeline company, these companies comprise the regulated utility operations.

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of XEL – December 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $26,564,708,796 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 0.78 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 43.15% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 23.00 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 2.17 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 0.78 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 -18.57 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass


Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $2.25
MG Growth Estimate 2.82%
MG Value $31.81
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade D
MG Value based on 3% Growth $32.62
MG Value based on 0% Growth $19.12
Market Implied Growth Rate 7.25%
Current Price $51.73
% of Intrinsic Value 162.63%

Xcel Energy Inc does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, high PEmg ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.89 in 2014 to an estimated $2.25 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 7.25% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Xcel Energy Inc revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $35.19. The company pays a dividend of $1.44 per share, for a yield of 2.8%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 23, which was above the industry average of 22.27. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-58.06.

Xcel Energy Inc scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$58.06
Graham Number $35.19
PEmg 23.00
Current Ratio 0.78
PB Ratio 2.17
Current Dividend $1.44
Dividend Yield 2.78%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 14

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 9/1/2018
Total Current Assets $3,003,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $3,838,000,000
Long-Term Debt $15,508,000,000
Total Assets $44,835,000,000
Intangible Assets $0
Total Liabilities $32,670,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 511,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.44
Dec2017 $2.25
Dec2016 $2.21
Dec2015 $1.94
Dec2014 $2.03
Dec2013 $1.91
Dec2012 $1.85
Dec2011 $1.72
Dec2010 $1.62
Dec2009 $1.48
Dec2008 $1.46
Dec2007 $1.35
Dec2006 $1.36
Dec2005 $1.23
Dec2004 $0.87
Dec2003 $1.50
Dec2002 -$5.82
Dec2001 $2.30
Dec2000 $1.54
Dec1999 $1.70
Dec1998 $1.91

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.25
Dec2017 $2.13
Dec2016 $2.04
Dec2015 $1.93
Dec2014 $1.89
Dec2013 $1.79
Dec2012 $1.69
Dec2011 $1.59
Dec2010 $1.50
Dec2009 $1.42
Dec2008 $1.34
Dec2007 $1.27
Dec2006 $0.77
Dec2005 $0.32
Dec2004 -$0.06
Dec2003 -$0.27
Dec2002 -$0.66

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Xcel Energy Inc Valuation – February 2018 $XEL
Xcel Energy Inc Valuation – May 2016 $XEL
Xcel Energy Inc. Analysis – September 2015 Update $XEL
The 10 Best Stocks For Value Investors This Week – 6/20/15
Xcel Energy Analysis – June 2015 Update $XEL

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The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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