Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): LyondellBasell Industries N.V., incorporated on October 15, 2009, is a plastics, chemicals and refining company. The Company operates through its Advanced Polymer Solutions segment. It produces olefins and polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), high density polyethylene (HDPE), low density polyethylene (LDPE) and linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE). It produces PP homopolymers, PP impact copolymers and PP random copolymers. PP compounds are produced from blends of polyolefins and additives and are sold to the automotive and home appliances industries. Its engineered composites are lightweight, materials that are used in infrastructure, aerospace and automotive applications such as headlamps. It also manufactures powders, which is a specialty particle materials used in coatings, rotational molding, toll compounding and other technical applications. Masterbatches is a coloring and additive materials used in the production of paper, paint and plastic goods around the world.
Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:
ModernGraham Valuation of LYB – January 2019
Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?
What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?
| Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests. | ||||
| 1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise | Market Cap > $2Bil | $31,908,835,157 | Pass | |
| 2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition | Current Ratio > 2 | 1.82 | Fail | |
| 3. Earnings Stability | Positive EPS for 10 years prior | Fail | ||
| 4. Dividend Record | Dividend Payments for 10 years prior | Fail | ||
| 5. Earnings Growth | Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end | -100.47% | Fail | |
| 6. Moderate PEmg Ratio | PEmg < 20 | 7.68 | Pass | |
| 7. Moderate Price to Assets | PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 | 2.93 | Pass | |
| Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor. | ||||
| 1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition | Current Ratio > 1.5 | 1.82 | Pass | |
| 2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition | Debt to NCA < 1.1 | 1.45 | Fail | |
| 3. Earnings Stability | Positive EPS for 5 years prior | Pass | ||
| 4. Dividend Record | Currently Pays Dividend | Pass | ||
| 5. Earnings Growth | EPSmg greater than 5 years ago | Pass | ||
Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value
| EPSmg | $10.84 |
| MG Growth Estimate | 11.51% |
| MG Value | $341.49 |
| Opinion | Undervalued |
| MG Grade | B |
| MG Value based on 3% Growth | $157.11 |
| MG Value based on 0% Growth | $92.10 |
| Market Implied Growth Rate | -0.41% |
| Current Price | $83.17 |
| % of Intrinsic Value | 24.36% |
LyondellBasell Industries NV is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the level of debt relative to the net current assets. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.
As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $6.13 in 2014 to an estimated $10.84 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 0.41% annual earnings loss over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.
At the time of valuation, further research into LyondellBasell Industries NV revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $77.64. The company pays a dividend of $3.55 per share, for a yield of 4.3%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 7.68, which was below the industry average of 20.47, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-16.01.
LyondellBasell Industries NV performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B.
Stage 3: Information for Further Research
| Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) | -$16.01 |
| Graham Number | $77.64 |
| PEmg | 7.68 |
| Current Ratio | 1.82 |
| PB Ratio | 2.93 |
| Current Dividend | $3.55 |
| Dividend Yield | 4.27% |
| Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth | 7 |
Useful Links:
| ModernGraham tagged articles | Morningstar |
| Google Finance | MSN Money |
| Yahoo Finance | Seeking Alpha |
| GuruFocus | SEC Filings |
Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures
| Balance Sheet Information | 9/1/2018 |
| Total Current Assets | $11,383,000,000 |
| Total Current Liabilities | $6,242,000,000 |
| Long-Term Debt | $7,471,000,000 |
| Total Assets | $28,696,000,000 |
| Intangible Assets | $2,801,000,000 |
| Total Liabilities | $17,627,000,000 |
| Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) | 390,000,000 |
Earnings Per Share History
| EPS History | |
| Next Fiscal Year Estimate | $11.81 |
| Dec2017 | $12.23 |
| Dec2016 | $9.13 |
| Dec2015 | $9.59 |
| Dec2014 | $7.99 |
| Dec2013 | $6.75 |
| Dec2012 | $4.92 |
| Dec2011 | $3.74 |
| Dec2010 | $2.78 |
| Dec2009 | -$7,105.20 |
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History
| EPSmg History | |
| Next Fiscal Year Estimate | $10.84 |
| Dec2017 | $9.94 |
| Dec2016 | $8.43 |
| Dec2015 | $7.58 |
| Dec2014 | $6.13 |
| Dec2013 | -$469.00 |
| Dec2012 | -$944.17 |
| Dec2011 | -$1,419.05 |
| Dec2010 | -$1,893.79 |
| Dec2009 | -$2,368.40 |
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Disclaimer:
The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.
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