Financial Services Stocks

Invesco Ltd Valuation – January 2019 $IVZ

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Invesco Ltd. (Invesco), incorporated on September 12, 2007, is an independent investment management company. The Company provides a range of investment capabilities and outcomes, which are delivered through a set of investment vehicles, to help clients achieve their investment objectives. The Company has a presence in the retail and institutional markets within the investment management industry in North America; Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA), and Asia-Pacific. It served clients in more than 100 countries, as of December 31, 2016. The Company’s Jemstep solution provides wealth management home offices and their advisors with a suite of technology solutions that are customizable and are integrated into existing systems. The solution offers advisors an open architecture platform that includes Invesco’s fundamental and factor-based investment strategies.

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of IVZ – January 2019

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass all 6 of the following tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $7,099,659,454 Pass
2. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
3. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
4. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 115.57% Pass
5. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 7.21 Pass
6. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 0.77 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass all 3 of the following tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
2. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
3. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $2.39
MG Growth Estimate 3.99%
MG Value $39.47
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade A
MG Value based on 3% Growth $34.72
MG Value based on 0% Growth $20.35
Market Implied Growth Rate -0.65%
Current Price $17.26
% of Intrinsic Value 43.73%

Invesco Ltd. qualifies for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor. In fact, the company meets all of the requirements of both investor types, a rare accomplishment indicative of the company’s strong financial position . The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.89 in 2014 to an estimated $2.39 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 0.65% annual earnings loss over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Invesco Ltd. revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $33.89. The company pays a dividend of $1.15 per share, for a yield of 6.7%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 7.21, which was below the industry average of 18, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry.

Invesco Ltd. fares extremely well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring an A.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Graham Number $33.89
PEmg 7.21
PB Ratio 0.77
Dividend Yield 6.66%
TTM Dividend $1.15
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 8

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 9/1/2018
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation $7,635,100,000
Total Assets $32,503,800,000
Intangible Assets $9,468,000,000
Total Liabilities $23,185,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 414,400,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.39
Dec2017 $2.75
Dec2016 $2.06
Dec2015 $2.26
Dec2014 $2.27
Dec2013 $2.10
Dec2012 $1.49
Dec2011 $1.57
Dec2010 $1.01
Dec2009 $0.76
Dec2008 $1.21
Dec2007 $1.64
Dec2006 $1.19
Dec2005 $0.54
Dec2004 -$0.10
Dec2003 $0.61
Dec2002 $0.03
Dec2001 $0.28
Dec2000 $0.63
Dec1999 $0.44
Dec1998 $0.10

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.39
Dec2017 $2.36
Dec2016 $2.12
Dec2015 $2.08
Dec2014 $1.89
Dec2013 $1.60
Dec2012 $1.30
Dec2011 $1.22
Dec2010 $1.08
Dec2009 $1.10
Dec2008 $1.14
Dec2007 $1.00
Dec2006 $0.60
Dec2005 $0.30
Dec2004 $0.21
Dec2003 $0.38
Dec2002 $0.27

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

5 Low P/E Companies In The S&P 500 – August 2018
Best Stocks Below Their Graham Number – August 2018
10 Low PE Stock Picks for the Defensive Investor – August 2018
10 Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Dividend Stock Investor – July 2018
Best Stocks Below Their Graham Number – June 2018

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Disclaimer:

The author held a long position in IVZ but did not hold a position in any other company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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