Media Entertainment Stocks

Viacom Inc Valuation – January 2019 $VIAB

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Viacom Inc., incorporated on September 22, 2005, offers global media brands that create television programs, motion pictures, short-form content, applications, games, consumer products, social media experiences and other entertainment content. As of September 30, 2016, the Company offered its services for audiences in more than 180 countries. The Company operates through two segments: Media Networks and Filmed Entertainment. The Company’s Media Networks segment provides entertainment content and related branded products for advertisers, content distributors and retailers. The Company’s Filmed Entertainment segment produces, finances, acquires and distributes motion pictures, television programming and other entertainment content under the Paramount Pictures, Paramount Vantage, Paramount Classics, Paramount Animation, Insurge Pictures, Nickelodeon Movies, MTV Films and Paramount Television brands.

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of VIAB – January 2019

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $11,636,179,217 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.50 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 31.12% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 6.86 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.57 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.50 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 4.71 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $4.23
MG Growth Estimate -1.57%
MG Value $22.62
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade C
MG Value based on 3% Growth $61.31
MG Value based on 0% Growth $35.94
Market Implied Growth Rate -0.82%
Current Price $28.99
% of Intrinsic Value 128.16%

Viacom, Inc. Class B does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets, and the lack of earnings growth over the last five years. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $4.72 in 2015 to an estimated $4.23 for 2019. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 0.82% annual earnings loss over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Viacom, Inc. Class B revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $41.02. The company pays a dividend of $0.8 per share, for a yield of 2.8%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 6.86, which was below the industry average of 27.83, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-25.4.

Viacom, Inc. Class B receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$25.40
Graham Number $41.02
PEmg 6.86
Current Ratio 1.50
PB Ratio 1.57
Current Dividend $0.80
Dividend Yield 2.76%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 9/1/2018
Total Current Assets $6,076,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $4,054,000,000
Long-Term Debt $9,515,000,000
Total Assets $23,783,000,000
Intangible Assets $11,922,000,000
Total Liabilities $16,318,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 403,300,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $4.07
Sep2018 $4.27
Sep2017 $4.68
Sep2016 $3.61
Sep2015 $4.73
Sep2014 $5.43
Sep2013 $4.84
Sep2012 $3.69
Sep2011 $3.59
Dec2009 $2.65
Dec2008 $2.00
Dec2007 $2.72
Dec2006 $2.22
Dec2005 $1.73
Dec2004 $1.84
Dec2003 $1.52
Dec2002 $1.19
Dec2001 $0.58

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $4.23
Sep2018 $4.39
Sep2017 $4.52
Sep2016 $4.44
Sep2015 $4.72
Sep2014 $4.49
Sep2013 $3.80
Sep2012 $3.17
Sep2011 $2.81
Dec2009 $2.37
Dec2008 $2.19
Dec2007 $2.19
Dec2006 $1.85
Dec2005 $1.57
Dec2004 $1.33
Dec2003 $0.94
Dec2002 $0.55

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Viacom Inc Valuation – March 2018 $VIAB
Viacom Inc Valuation – June 2016 $VIAB
Viacom Inc. Annual Valuation – 2015 $VIAB
5 Undervalued Companies for the Enterprising Investor Near 52 Week Lows – November 2014
5 Undervalued Companies for the Enterprising Investor Near 52 Week Lows – October 2014

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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