Pharmaceuticals Stocks

Zoetis Inc Valuation – January 2019 $ZTS

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Zoetis Inc., incorporated on July 25, 2012, is engaged in the discovery, development, manufacture and commercialization of animal health medicines and vaccines, with a focus on both livestock and companion animals. The Company has a business, commercializing products across eight core species: cattle, swine, poultry, sheep and fish (collectively, livestock) and dogs, cats and horses (collectively, companion animals), and within five product categories: anti-infectives, vaccines, parasiticides, medicated feed additives and other pharmaceuticals. The Company’s segments include the United States and International. Within each of these operating segments, it offers a product portfolio for both livestock and companion animal customers. As of December 31, 2016, the Company had approximately 300 product lines, including products for both livestock and companion animals across each of its product categories. As of December 31, 2016, the Company marketed its products to veterinarians and livestock producers located in approximately 45 countries across North America, Europe, Africa, Asia, Australia and South America.

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of ZTS – January 2019

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $41,107,369,275 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 4.06 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 1571.05% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 43.92 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 19.62 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 4.06 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 2.10 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $1.95
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $75.00
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade C-
MG Value based on 3% Growth $28.25
MG Value based on 0% Growth $16.56
Market Implied Growth Rate 17.71%
Current Price $85.56
% of Intrinsic Value 114.08%

Zoetis Inc is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the level of debt relative to the net current assets. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $0.88 in 2014 to an estimated $1.95 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 17.71% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Zoetis Inc revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $15.55. The company pays a dividend of $0.42 per share, for a yield of 0.5% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 43.92, which was above the industry average of 35.4. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-8.78.

Zoetis Inc receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C-.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$8.78
Graham Number $15.55
PEmg 43.92
Current Ratio 4.06
PB Ratio 19.62
Current Dividend $0.42
Dividend Yield 0.49%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 5

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 9/1/2018
Total Current Assets $4,076,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $1,003,000,000
Long-Term Debt $6,441,000,000
Total Assets $10,459,000,000
Intangible Assets $4,657,000,000
Total Liabilities $8,341,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 485,800,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.95
Dec2017 $1.75
Dec2016 $1.65
Dec2015 $0.68
Dec2014 $1.16
Dec2013 $1.01
Dec2012 $0.87
Dec2011 $0.38

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.95
Dec2017 $1.38
Dec2016 $1.16
Dec2015 $0.88
Dec2014 $0.88
Dec2013 $0.64
Dec2012 $0.39
Dec2011 $0.13

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Zoetis Inc Valuation – March 2018 $ZTS
Zoetis Inc Valuation – June 2016 $ZTS
Zoetis Inc. Valuation – October 2015 Update $ZTS
The Best Companies of the Pharmaceuticals Industry – August 2015
The 16 Best Stocks For Value Investors This Week – 8/1/15

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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