Oil & Gas Stocks

Helmerich & Payne Inc Valuation – January 2019 $HP

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Helmerich & Payne, Inc., incorporated on February 29, 1944, is engaged in contract drilling of oil and gas wells for others. The Company operates in the contract drilling industry. The Company’s contract drilling business consists of three segments: U.S. Land, Offshore and International Land. The Company is also engaged in the ownership, development and operation of commercial real estate and the research and development of rotary steerable technology. Its real estate investments are located within Tulsa, Oklahoma, and include a shopping center containing approximately 441,000 leasable square feet, multi-tenant industrial warehouse properties containing approximately one million leasable square feet and approximately 210 acres of undeveloped real estate. The Company’s subsidiaries include Helmerich & Payne International Drilling Co. and Helmerich & Payne de Venezuela, C.A.

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of HP – January 2019

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

 

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $5,825,900,373 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 2.96 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -63.64% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 39.29 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.34 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 2.96 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.67 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $1.36
MG Growth Estimate -4.25%
MG Value $0.00
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade C
MG Value based on 3% Growth $19.72
MG Value based on 0% Growth $11.56
Market Implied Growth Rate 15.39%
Current Price $53.43
% of Intrinsic Value N/A

Helmerich & Payne, Inc. does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the high PEmg ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the lack of earnings stability or growth over the last five years. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $5.34 in 2015 to an estimated $1.36 for 2019. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 15.39% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Helmerich & Payne, Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $26.06. The company pays a dividend of $2.81 per share, for a yield of 5.3%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 39.29, which was below the industry average of 41.28, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-6.54.

Helmerich & Payne, Inc. receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$6.54
Graham Number $26.06
PEmg 39.29
Current Ratio 2.96
PB Ratio 1.34
Current Dividend $2.81
Dividend Yield 5.26%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 20

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 9/1/2018
Total Current Assets $1,115,550,000
Total Current Liabilities $377,168,000
Long-Term Debt $493,968,000
Total Assets $6,214,867,000
Intangible Assets $137,984,000
Total Liabilities $1,832,132,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 109,534,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $0.75
Sep2018 $4.37
Sep2017 -$1.20
Sep2016 -$0.54
Sep2015 $3.85
Sep2014 $6.44
Sep2013 $6.79
Sep2012 $5.34
Sep2011 $3.99
Sep2010 $1.45
Sep2009 $3.31
Sep2008 $4.34
Sep2007 $4.27
Sep2006 $2.77
Sep2005 $0.62
Sep2004 $0.05
Sep2003 $0.09
Sep2002 $0.27
Sep2001 $0.79
Sep2000 $0.82
Sep1999 $0.43

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.36
Sep2018 $1.97
Sep2017 $1.54
Sep2016 $3.40
Sep2015 $5.34
Sep2014 $5.65
Sep2013 $4.90
Sep2012 $3.86
Sep2011 $3.24
Sep2010 $2.99
Sep2009 $3.53
Sep2008 $3.22
Sep2007 $2.30
Sep2006 $1.13
Sep2005 $0.32
Sep2004 $0.25
Sep2003 $0.40

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Helmerich & Payne Inc Valuation – March 2018 $HP
Helmerich & Payne Inc Valuation – June 2016 $HP
Helmerich & Payne Inc Valuation – November 2015 Update $HP
Dividend Growth Stocks for the Intelligent Investor – November 2015
10 Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Dividend Stock Investor – November 2015

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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