Stocks Travel

TripAdvisor Inc Valuation – January 2019 $TRIP

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): TripAdvisor, Inc., incorporated on July 20, 2011, is an online travel company which owns and operates a portfolio of online travel brands. TripAdvisor, the Company’s brand, is a travel site. The Company operates through two segments: Hotel and Non-Hotel. The Company’s platform also enables users to compare real-time pricing and availability for these experiences, as well as to book hotels, flights, cruises, vacation rentals, tours, activities and attractions, and restaurants, on either a TripAdvisor site or application, or a travel partner site or application. As of December 31, 2017, the Company’s TripAdvisor-branded Websites included tripadvisor.com in the United States and localized versions of the TripAdvisor Website in 48 markets and 28 languages around the world. As of December 31, 2017, the Company featured approximately 600 million reviews and opinions on 7.5 million places to stay, places to eat and things to do, including 1,060,000 hotels and accommodations and 835,000 vacation rentals, 4.6 million restaurants and 915,000 activities and attractions around the world.

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of TRIP – January 2019

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $7,712,066,189 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 2.04 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 9.09% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 84.28 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 5.48 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 2.04 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.00 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Fail
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $0.66
MG Growth Estimate -4.25%
MG Value $1.25
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade F
MG Value based on 3% Growth $9.64
MG Value based on 0% Growth $5.65
Market Implied Growth Rate 37.89%
Current Price $56.02
% of Intrinsic Value 4487.97%

Tripadvisor Inc Common Stock does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the lack of earnings stability or growth over the last five years, and the lack of dividends. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $1.34 in 2014 to an estimated $0.66 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 37.89% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Tripadvisor Inc Common Stock revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $12.95. The company does not pay a dividend. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 84.28, which was above the industry average of 38.01. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $1.25.

Tripadvisor Inc Common Stock scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of F.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) $1.25
Graham Number $12.95
PEmg 84.28
Current Ratio 2.04
PB Ratio 5.48
Current Dividend $0.00
Dividend Yield 0.00%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 9/1/2018
Total Current Assets $926,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $453,000,000
Long-Term Debt $0
Total Assets $2,192,000,000
Intangible Assets $889,000,000
Total Liabilities $750,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 141,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $0.76
Dec2017 -$0.14
Dec2016 $0.82
Dec2015 $1.36
Dec2014 $1.55
Dec2013 $1.41
Dec2012 $1.37
Dec2011 $1.32

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $0.66
Dec2017 $0.74
Dec2016 $1.23
Dec2015 $1.42
Dec2014 $1.34
Dec2013 $1.10
Dec2012 $0.81
Dec2011 $0.44

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

10 Most Overvalued Stocks of the S&P 500 – July 2018
TripAdviser Inc Valuation – March 2018 $TRIP
TripAdvisor Inc Valuation – June 2016 $TRIP
TripAdvisor Inc. Valuation – November 2015 Update $TRIP
Tripadvisor Stock Analysis – August 2015 Update $TRIP

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

ILG Inc Valuation – July 2018 $ILG
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd Valuation – Initial Coverage June 2018 $RCL
Expedia Group Inc Valuation – May 2018 $EXPE
Booking Holdings Inc Valuation – April 2018 $BKNG
TripAdviser Inc Valuation – March 2018 $TRIP
Expedia Inc Valuation – February 2017 $EXPE
Priceline Group Inc Valuation – July 2016 $PCLN
TripAdvisor Inc Valuation – June 2016 $TRIP
TripAdvisor Inc. Valuation – November 2015 Update $TRIP
Expedia Inc. Analysis – October 2015 Update $EXPE

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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