Banks Stocks

Zions Bancorp Valuation – January 2019 $ZION

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Zions Bancorporation, incorporated on April 25, 1955, is a financial holding company. The Company conducts its banking operations through separately managed and branded segments, including Zions Bank, Amegy Bank, California Bank & Trust, National Bank of Arizona, Nevada State Bank (NSB), Vectra Bank Colorado, The Commerce Bank of Washington (TCBW) and Other. The Company provides a range of banking and related services, primarily in Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Texas, Utah, Washington and Wyoming.

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of ZION – January 2019

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass all 6 of the following tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $8,880,873,295 Pass
2. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
3. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
4. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -173.64% Fail
5. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 17.29 Pass
6. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.26 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass all 3 of the following tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
2. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
3. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $2.67
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $102.92
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade B
MG Value based on 3% Growth $38.76
MG Value based on 0% Growth $22.72
Market Implied Growth Rate 4.39%
Current Price $46.21
% of Intrinsic Value 44.90%

Zions Bancorp is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.12 in 2014 to an estimated $2.67 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 4.39% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Zions Bancorp revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $56.43. The company pays a dividend of $0.44 per share, for a yield of 1% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 17.29, which was above the industry average of 14.65.

Zions Bancorp performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Graham Number $56.43
PEmg 17.29
PB Ratio 1.26
Dividend Yield 0.95%
TTM Dividend $0.44
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 5

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 9/1/2018
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation $879,000,000
Total Assets $66,731,000,000
Intangible Assets $1,015,000,000
Total Liabilities $59,178,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 205,765,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.93
Dec2017 $2.60
Dec2016 $1.99
Dec2015 $1.20
Dec2014 $1.68
Dec2013 $1.58
Dec2012 $0.97
Dec2011 $0.83
Dec2010 -$2.48
Dec2009 -$9.92
Dec2008 -$2.68
Dec2007 $4.42
Dec2006 $5.36
Dec2005 $5.16
Dec2004 $4.47
Dec2003 $3.72
Dec2002 $2.78
Dec2001 $3.07
Dec2000 $1.86
Dec1999 $2.26
Dec1998 $1.75

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.67
Dec2017 $1.97
Dec2016 $1.59
Dec2015 $1.35
Dec2014 $1.12
Dec2013 -$0.04
Dec2012 -$1.45
Dec2011 -$2.43
Dec2010 -$3.06
Dec2009 -$2.08
Dec2008 $2.34
Dec2007 $4.78
Dec2006 $4.74
Dec2005 $4.23
Dec2004 $3.57
Dec2003 $2.99
Dec2002 $2.54

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Zions Bancorp Valuation – June 2016 $ZION
40 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 2/21/15
Zions Bancorporation Annual Valuation – 2015 $ZION
14 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 2/15/14
Zions Bancorporation (ZION) Annual Valuation

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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