Stocks Utilities

AES Corp Valuation – January 2019 $AES

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): The AES Corporation, incorporated on January 28, 1981, is a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries and affiliates, operates a diversified portfolio of electricity generation and distribution businesses. The Company is organized into six strategic business units (SBUs): the United States; Andes; Brazil; Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean (MCAC); Europe, and Asia. Within these SBUs, the Company has two lines of business: generation and utilities. As of December 31, 2016, its United States SBU had 18 generation facilities and two integrated utilities in the United States. As of December 31, 2016, its Andes SBU had generation facilities in three countries, Chile, Colombia and Argentina. Its Brazil SBU has generation and distribution businesses, Eletropaulo and Tiete. As of December 31, 2016, its MCAC SBU had a portfolio of distribution businesses and generation facilities, including renewable energy, in five countries, with a total capacity of 3,239 megawatts (MW) and distribution networks. As of December 31, 2016, its Europe SBU had generation facilities in five countries with an installed capacity of 6,619 MW. As of December 31, 2016, its Asia SBU had generation facilities in three countries with an installed capacity of 2,300 MW.

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of AES – January 2019

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $10,252,357,256 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.24 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -246.23% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 -380.66 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.80 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.24 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 18.69 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg -$0.04
MG Growth Estimate -4.25%
MG Value $0.00
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade D+
MG Value based on 3% Growth -$0.59
MG Value based on 0% Growth -$0.35
Market Implied Growth Rate -194.58%
Current Price $15.48
% of Intrinsic Value N/A

AES Corp does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets, and the lack of earnings stability or growth over the last five years. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $0.16 in 2014 to an estimated $-0.04 for 2018. This level of negative earnings does not support a positive valuation.As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into AES Corp revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $12.73. The company pays a dividend of $0.48 per share, for a yield of 3.1%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was -380.66, which was below the industry average of 21.62, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-32.73.

AES Corp scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D+.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$32.73
Graham Number $12.73
PEmg -380.66
Current Ratio 1.24
PB Ratio 1.80
Current Dividend $0.48
Dividend Yield 3.10%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 6

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 9/1/2018
Total Current Assets $5,015,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $4,047,000,000
Long-Term Debt $18,088,000,000
Total Assets $32,489,000,000
Intangible Assets $1,459,000,000
Total Liabilities $26,780,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 665,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.93
Dec2017 -$1.76
Dec2016 -$1.72
Dec2015 $0.44
Dec2014 $1.06
Dec2013 $0.15
Dec2012 -$1.21
Dec2011 $0.07
Dec2010 $0.01
Dec2009 $0.98
Dec2008 $1.82
Dec2007 -$0.14
Dec2006 $0.37
Dec2005 $0.83
Dec2004 $0.46
Dec2003 -$0.78
Dec2002 -$7.50
Dec2001 $0.36
Dec2000 $1.69
Dec1999 $0.58
Dec1998 $0.85

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate -$0.04
Dec2017 -$0.81
Dec2016 -$0.30
Dec2015 $0.30
Dec2014 $0.16
Dec2013 -$0.19
Dec2012 -$0.13
Dec2011 $0.46
Dec2010 $0.63
Dec2009 $0.89
Dec2008 $0.78
Dec2007 $0.23
Dec2006 -$0.17
Dec2005 -$0.73
Dec2004 -$1.39
Dec2003 -$1.92
Dec2002 -$1.93

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

The AES Corp Valuation – March 2018 $AES
AES Corporation Valuation – July 2016 $AES
AES Corporation Annual Valuation – 2015 $AEP
14 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 1/11/14
ModernGraham Valuation: AES Corp (AES)

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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