Company ProfileÂ (excerpt from Reuters): Eli Lilly and Company, incorporated on January 17, 1901, is engaged in drug manufacturing business. The Company discovers, develops, manufactures and markets products in two segments: human pharmaceutical products and animal health products. The Company’s human pharmaceutical business segment sells medicines, which are discovered or developed by its scientists. Its animal health business segment operates through the Company’s Elanco division, which develops, manufactures and markets products for both food animals and companion animals. As of December 31, 2016, the Company manufactured and distributed its products through facilities in the United States, Puerto Rico and 14 other countries.
Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:
ModernGraham Valuation of LLY – January 2019
Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?
What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?
|Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.|
|1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise||Market Cap > $2Bil||$124,957,622,150||Pass|
|2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Current Ratio > 2||1.91||Fail|
|3. Earnings Stability||Positive EPS for 10 years prior||Fail|
|4. Dividend Record||Dividend Payments for 10 years prior||Pass|
|5. Earnings Growth||Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end||-53.78%||Fail|
|6. Moderate PEmg Ratio||PEmg < 20||58.07||Fail|
|7. Moderate Price to Assets||PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50||8.56||Fail|
|Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.|
|1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Current Ratio > 1.5||1.91||Pass|
|2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Debt to NCA < 1.1||1.18||Fail|
|3. Earnings Stability||Positive EPS for 5 years prior||Fail|
|4. Dividend Record||Currently Pays Dividend||Pass|
|5. Earnings Growth||EPSmg greater than 5 years ago||Fail|
Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value
|MG Growth Estimate||-4.25%|
|MG Value based on 3% Growth||$29.46|
|MG Value based on 0% Growth||$17.27|
|Market Implied Growth Rate||24.78%|
|% of Intrinsic Value||N/A|
Eli Lilly And Co does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the net current assets, and the lack of earnings stability or growth over the last five years. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.
As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $3.45 in 2014 to an estimated $2.03 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 24.78% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.
At the time of valuation, further research into Eli Lilly And Co revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $28.18. The company pays a dividend of $2.08 per share, for a yield of 1.8% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 58.07, which was above the industry average of 35.4. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-9.54.
Eli Lilly And Co scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of F.
Stage 3: Information for Further Research
|Net Current Asset Value (NCAV)||-$9.54|
|Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth||3|
|ModernGraham tagged articles||Morningstar|
|Google Finance||MSN Money|
|Yahoo Finance||Seeking Alpha|
Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures
|Balance Sheet Information||9/1/2018|
|Total Current Assets||$20,685,900,000|
|Total Current Liabilities||$10,826,700,000|
|Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)||1,026,300,000|
Earnings Per Share History
|Next Fiscal Year Estimate||$3.35|
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History
|Next Fiscal Year Estimate||$2.03|
Other ModernGraham posts about the company
|Eli Lilly and Co. Valuation â€“ March 2018 $LLY|
|Eli Lilly and Company Valuation â€“ July 2016 $LLY|
|47 Companies in the Spotlight This Week â€“ 5/16/15|
|Eli Lilly & Co. Annual Valuation â€“ 2015 $LLY|
|58 Companies in the Spotlight This Week â€“ 1/31/15|
Other ModernGraham posts about related companies
The author did not hold aÂ position in any company mentioned in this articleÂ at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours. Â See my current holdings here. Â This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to aÂ registeredÂ investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions. Â ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner. Â Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.
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