HollyFrontier Corp Valuation – January 2019 $HFC

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): HollyFrontier Corporation, incorporated on January 25, 1947, is an independent petroleum refiner. The Company produces various light products, such as gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel, specialty lubricant products, and specialty and modified asphalt. The Company operates through two segments: Refining and Holly Energy Partners, L.P. (HEP). The Refining segment includes the operations of the Company’s El Dorado, Kansas (the El Dorado Refinery); refinery facilities located in Tulsa, Oklahoma (collectively, the Tulsa Refineries); a refinery in Artesia, New Mexico that is operated in conjunction with crude oil distillation and vacuum distillation and other facilities situated 65 miles away in Lovington, New Mexico (collectively, the Navajo Refinery); refinery located in Cheyenne, Wyoming (the Cheyenne Refinery); a refinery in Woods Cross, Utah (the Woods Cross Refinery), and HollyFrontier Asphalt Company (HFC Asphalt). The HEP segment involves all of the operations of HEP.

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of HFC – January 2019

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $9,387,931,192 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 2.50 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 33.29% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 13.96 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.46 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 2.50 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 1.04 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail


Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $3.88
MG Growth Estimate -0.59%
MG Value $28.38
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade C
MG Value based on 3% Growth $56.27
MG Value based on 0% Growth $32.99
Market Implied Growth Rate 2.73%
Current Price $54.18
% of Intrinsic Value 190.94%

HollyFrontier Corp does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the lack of earnings stability or growth over the last five years. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $4.04 in 2014 to an estimated $3.88 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 2.73% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into HollyFrontier Corp revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $69.4. The company pays a dividend of $1.32 per share, for a yield of 2.4%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 13.96, which was below the industry average of 41.28, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-6.07.

HollyFrontier Corp receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$6.07
Graham Number $69.40
PEmg 13.96
Current Ratio 2.50
PB Ratio 1.46
Current Dividend $1.32
Dividend Yield 2.44%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 7

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 9/1/2018
Total Current Assets $3,857,725,000
Total Current Liabilities $1,540,635,000
Long-Term Debt $2,409,148,000
Total Assets $11,495,126,000
Intangible Assets $2,691,357,000
Total Liabilities $4,931,614,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 176,927,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $7.07
Dec2017 $4.52
Dec2016 -$1.48
Dec2015 $3.90
Dec2014 $1.42
Dec2013 $3.64
Dec2012 $8.38
Dec2011 $6.42
Dec2010 $0.97
Dec2009 $0.20
Dec2008 $1.19
Dec2007 $2.99
Dec2006 $2.29
Dec2005 $1.33
Dec2004 $0.65
Dec2003 $0.36
Jul2002 $0.25
Jul2001 $0.60
Jul2000 $0.09
Jul1999 $0.15
Jul1998 $0.12

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.88
Dec2017 $2.32
Dec2016 $1.87
Dec2015 $3.95
Dec2014 $4.04
Dec2013 $4.87
Dec2012 $4.80
Dec2011 $2.80
Dec2010 $1.16
Dec2009 $1.37
Dec2008 $1.87
Dec2007 $1.98
Dec2006 $1.31
Dec2005 $0.76
Dec2004 $0.45
Dec2003 $0.33
Jul2002 $0.29

Recommended Reading:

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None. This is the first time ModernGraham has covered the company.

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The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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