Exelon Corp Valuation – January 2019 $EXC

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Exelon Corporation, incorporated on February 4, 1999, is a utility services holding company. The Company, through its subsidiary, Exelon Generation Company, LLC (Generation), is engaged in the energy generation business. The Company, through its subsidiaries, Commonwealth Edison Company (ComEd), PECO Energy Company (PECO), Baltimore Gas and Electric Company (BGE), Pepco Holdings LLC (PHI), Potomac Electric Power Company (Pepco), Delmarva Power & Light Company (DPL) and Atlantic City Electric Company (ACE), is engaged in the energy delivery businesses. The Company operates through 12 segments: Generation’s six segments: Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, New England, New York, ERCOT and Other Power Regions; ComEd; PECO; BGE, and PHI’s three utility segments: Pepco, DPL and ACE. Generation, ComEd, PECO, BGE, Pepco, DPL and ACE participate in energy markets that are administered by regional transmission organizations (RTOs) and independent system operators (ISOs).


Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of EXC – January 2019

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $44,675,862,737 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.33 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -34.76% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 17.88 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.34 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.33 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 10.47 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass


Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $2.58
MG Growth Estimate 2.60%
MG Value $35.38
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade D+
MG Value based on 3% Growth $37.46
MG Value based on 0% Growth $21.96
Market Implied Growth Rate 4.69%
Current Price $46.20
% of Intrinsic Value 130.58%

Exelon Corporation does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.2 in 2014 to an estimated $2.58 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 4.69% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Exelon Corporation revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $41.34. The company pays a dividend of $1.31 per share, for a yield of 2.8%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 17.88, which was below the industry average of 21.62, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-74.87.

Exelon Corporation scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D+.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$74.87
Graham Number $41.34
PEmg 17.88
Current Ratio 1.33
PB Ratio 1.34
Current Dividend $1.31
Dividend Yield 2.84%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 2

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 9/1/2018
Total Current Assets $13,473,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $10,140,000,000
Long-Term Debt $34,909,000,000
Total Assets $119,485,000,000
Intangible Assets $6,677,000,000
Total Liabilities $86,097,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 970,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.45
Dec2017 $3.97
Dec2016 $1.22
Dec2015 $2.54
Dec2014 $1.88
Dec2013 $2.00
Dec2012 $1.42
Dec2011 $3.75
Dec2010 $3.87
Dec2009 $4.09
Dec2008 $4.13
Dec2007 $4.05
Dec2006 $2.35
Dec2005 $1.36
Dec2004 $2.78
Dec2003 $1.38
Dec2002 $2.22
Dec2001 $2.21
Dec2000 $0.92
Dec1999 $1.45
Dec1998 $1.12

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.58
Dec2017 $2.54
Dec2016 $1.82
Dec2015 $2.19
Dec2014 $2.20
Dec2013 $2.58
Dec2012 $3.07
Dec2011 $3.92
Dec2010 $3.90
Dec2009 $3.68
Dec2008 $3.29
Dec2007 $2.71
Dec2006 $2.03
Dec2005 $1.91
Dec2004 $2.09
Dec2003 $1.71
Dec2002 $1.78

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Exelon Corp Valuation – March 2018 $EXC
Exelon Corporation Valuation – July 2016 $EXC
23 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 3/9/15
Exelon Corporation Annual Valuation – 2015 $EXC
22 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 11/29/14

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The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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