Software Stocks

Autodesk Inc Valuation – February 2019 $ADSK

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Autodesk, Inc. (Autodesk), incorporated on May 10, 1994, is a design software and services company, offering customers productive business solutions through technology products and services. The Company serves customers in the architecture, engineering and construction; product design and manufacturing, and digital media and entertainment industries. The Company’s segments include Architecture, Engineering and Construction (AEC), Platform Solutions and Emerging Business (PSEB), Manufacturing (MFG), and Media and Entertainment (M&E). The Company’s software products enable its customers to experience their ideas before they are real by allowing them to imagine, design and create the ideas and to visualize, simulate and analyze performance early in the design process by creating digital prototypes. The Company’s product development and manufacturing software provides manufacturers in automotive, transportation, industrial machinery, consumer products and building products with digital engineering solutions. The Company’s product offerings include AutoCAD, AutoCAD LT, Industry Collections, 3ds Max, Maya, Revit, Inventor, AutoCAD Civil 3D, CAM Solutions, Fusion 360, BIM 360 and Shotgun.

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of ADSK – February 2019

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $33,313,459,123 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 0.80 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -330.80% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 -103.19 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 -98.46 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 0.80 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 -4.01 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Fail
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg -$1.47
MG Growth Estimate -4.25%
MG Value $0.00
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade D
MG Value based on 3% Growth -$21.38
MG Value based on 0% Growth -$12.53
Market Implied Growth Rate -55.84%
Current Price $152.17
% of Intrinsic Value N/A

Autodesk, Inc. does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets, and the lack of earnings stability or growth over the last five years, and the lack of dividends. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $0.82 in 2015 to an estimated $-1.47 for 2019. This level of negative earnings does not support a positive valuation.As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Autodesk, Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $0. The company does not pay a dividend. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was -103.19, which was below the industry average of 56.55, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-11.52.

Autodesk, Inc. scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$11.52
Graham Number $0.00
PEmg -103.19
Current Ratio 0.80
PB Ratio -98.46
Current Dividend $0.00
Dividend Yield 0.00%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 10/1/2018
Total Current Assets $1,590,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $1,985,500,000
Long-Term Debt $1,587,800,000
Total Assets $3,774,400,000
Intangible Assets $1,694,700,000
Total Liabilities $4,112,700,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 218,900,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate -$0.28
Jan2018 -$2.58
Jan2017 -$2.61
Jan2016 -$1.46
Jan2015 $0.35
Jan2014 $1.00
Jan2013 $1.07
Jan2012 $1.22
Jan2011 $0.90
Jan2010 $0.25
Jan2009 $0.80
Jan2008 $1.47
Jan2007 $1.19
Jan2006 $1.35
Jan2005 $0.90
Jan2004 $0.52
Jan2003 $0.14
Jan2002 $0.40
Jan2001 $0.40
Jan2000 $0.04
Jan1999 $0.41

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate -$1.47
Jan2018 -$1.73
Jan2017 -$0.98
Jan2016 $0.03
Jan2015 $0.82
Jan2014 $1.00
Jan2013 $0.95
Jan2012 $0.90
Jan2011 $0.80
Jan2010 $0.84
Jan2009 $1.14
Jan2008 $1.23
Jan2007 $1.02
Jan2006 $0.84
Jan2005 $0.55
Jan2004 $0.35
Jan2003 $0.27

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Autodesk Inc Valuation – April 2018 $ADSK
Autodesk Inc Valuation – December 2016 $ADSK
5 Speculative and Overvalued Companies to Avoid – August 2015
Autodesk Inc. Analysis – August 2015 Update $ADSK
47 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 5/16/15

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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