Oil & Gas Stocks

EOG Resources Inc Valuation – February 2019 $EOG

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): EOG Resources, Inc. (EOG), incorporated on June 12, 1985, together with its subsidiaries, explores for, develops, produces and markets crude oil and natural gas in major producing basins in the United States, The Republic of Trinidad and Tobago (Trinidad), the United Kingdom, The People’s Republic of China (China), Canada and, from time to time, select other international areas. The Company’s operations are all crude oil and natural gas exploration and production related. As of December 31, 2016, the Company’s total estimated net proved reserves were 2,147 million barrels of oil equivalent (MMBoe), of which 1178 million barrels (MMBbl) were crude oil and condensate reserves, 416 MMBbl were natural gas liquids (NGLs) reserves and 3318 billion cubic feet, or 553 MMBoe were natural gas reserves.

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of EOG – February 2019

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $55,966,430,117 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.09 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 126.67% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 52.95 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 3.03 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.09 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 13.20 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $1.82
MG Growth Estimate -4.25%
MG Value $0.00
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade F
MG Value based on 3% Growth $26.43
MG Value based on 0% Growth $15.49
Market Implied Growth Rate 22.22%
Current Price $96.51
% of Intrinsic Value N/A

EOG Resources Inc does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets, and the lack of earnings stability or growth over the last five years. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $3.35 in 2014 to an estimated $1.82 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 22.22% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into EOG Resources Inc revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $58.15. The company pays a dividend of $0.67 per share, for a yield of 0.7% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 52.95, which was above the industry average of 43.92. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-17.68.

EOG Resources Inc scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of F.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$17.68
Graham Number $58.15
PEmg 52.95
Current Ratio 1.09
PB Ratio 3.03
Current Dividend $0.67
Dividend Yield 0.69%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 9/1/2018
Total Current Assets $4,817,092,000
Total Current Liabilities $4,425,147,000
Long-Term Debt $5,171,949,000
Total Assets $33,637,736,000
Intangible Assets $0
Total Liabilities $15,099,266,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 581,559,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $5.34
Dec2017 $4.46
Dec2016 -$1.98
Dec2015 -$8.29
Dec2014 $5.32
Dec2013 $4.02
Dec2012 $1.05
Dec2011 $2.05
Dec2010 $0.32
Dec2009 $1.09
Dec2008 $4.86
Dec2007 $2.19
Dec2006 $2.62
Dec2005 $2.57
Dec2004 $1.29
Dec2003 $0.90
Dec2002 $0.16
Dec2001 $0.83
Dec2000 $0.81
Dec1999 $1.00
Dec1998 $0.09

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.82
Dec2017 $0.28
Dec2016 -$1.20
Dec2015 -$0.26
Dec2014 $3.35
Dec2013 $2.14
Dec2012 $1.43
Dec2011 $1.78
Dec2010 $1.83
Dec2009 $2.62
Dec2008 $3.15
Dec2007 $2.17
Dec2006 $1.95
Dec2005 $1.46
Dec2004 $0.87
Dec2003 $0.68
Dec2002 $0.58

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

EOG Resources Inc Valuation – April 2018 $EOG
EOG Resources Inc Valuation – July 2016 $EOG
EOG Resources Analysis – 2015 Annual Update $EOG
15 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 5/31/14
EOG Resources Inc. 2014 Annual Valuation $EOG

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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