Software Stocks

Intuit Inc Valuation – February 2019 $INTU

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Intuit Inc., incorporated on February 1, 1993, is a provider of business and financial management solutions for small businesses, consumers and accounting professionals. The Company operates through three segments: Small Business, Consumer Tax and ProConnect. The Small Business segment serves and advises small businesses and the accounting professionals and includes QuickBooks financial and business management online services and desktop software, payroll solutions, and payment processing solutions. The Small Business segment also includes third-party applications that integrate with the Company’s offerings. The Consumer Tax segment targets consumers and includes TurboTax income tax preparation products and services. The ProConnect segment targets professional accountants in the United States and Canada. Its ProConnect professional tax offerings include Lacerte, ProSeries, ProFile and ProConnect Tax Online.

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of INTU – February 2019

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $57,448,073,834 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.41 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 132.03% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 47.20 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 21.05 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.41 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.58 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $4.70
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $180.90
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade C
MG Value based on 3% Growth $68.13
MG Value based on 0% Growth $39.94
Market Implied Growth Rate 19.35%
Current Price $221.79
% of Intrinsic Value 122.60%

Intuit Inc. is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, poor dividend history, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the low current ratio. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.3 in 2015 to an estimated $4.7 for 2019. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 19.35% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Intuit Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $36.26. The company pays a dividend of $1.56 per share, for a yield of 0.7% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 47.2, which was below the industry average of 56.55, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $0.33.

Intuit Inc. receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) $0.33
Graham Number $36.26
PEmg 47.20
Current Ratio 1.41
PB Ratio 21.05
Current Dividend $1.56
Dividend Yield 0.70%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 4

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 10/1/2018
Total Current Assets $2,232,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $1,586,000,000
Long-Term Debt $375,000,000
Total Assets $4,928,000,000
Intangible Assets $1,665,000,000
Total Liabilities $2,146,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 264,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $6.42
Jul2018 $4.64
Jul2017 $3.72
Jul2016 $3.69
Jul2015 $1.28
Jul2014 $3.12
Jul2013 $2.83
Jul2012 $2.60
Jul2011 $2.00
Jul2010 $1.77
Jul2009 $1.35
Jul2008 $1.41
Jul2007 $1.24
Jul2006 $1.16
Jul2005 $1.01
Jul2004 $0.79
Jul2003 $0.81
Jul2002 $0.32
Jul2001 -$0.20
Jul2000 $0.73
Jul1999 $0.97

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $4.70
Jul2018 $3.66
Jul2017 $3.08
Jul2016 $2.75
Jul2015 $2.30
Jul2014 $2.70
Jul2013 $2.36
Jul2012 $2.03
Jul2011 $1.68
Jul2010 $1.47
Jul2009 $1.30
Jul2008 $1.22
Jul2007 $1.08
Jul2006 $0.94
Jul2005 $0.74
Jul2004 $0.57
Jul2003 $0.48

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Intuit Inc Valuation – April 2018 $INTU
Intuit Inc Valuation – March 2017 $INTU
Intuit Inc Valuation – January 2016 Update $INTU
Intuit Inc. Analysis – October 2015 Update $INTU
Intuit Inc. Analysis – July 2015 Update $INTU

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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