Union Pacific Corp Valuation – February 2019 $UNP
Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Union Pacific Corporation, incorporated on February 3, 1969, is a railroad operating company in the United States. The Company operates through its principal operating company, Union Pacific Railroad Company (UPRR). Its business mix includes Agricultural Products, Automotive, Chemicals, Coal, Industrial Products and Intermodal. As of December 31, 2016, its network included 32,070 route miles, linking Pacific Coast and Gulf Coast ports with the Midwest and Eastern United States gateways. As of December 31, 2016, the Company owned 26,053 miles and operated on the remainder pursuant to trackage rights or leases. It serves the western two-thirds of the country and maintains coordinated schedules with other rail carriers for the handling of freight to and from the Atlantic Coast, the Pacific Coast, the Southeast, the Southwest, Canada and Mexico. Export and import traffic is moved through Gulf Coast and Pacific Coast ports and across the Mexican and Canadian borders.
Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:
ModernGraham Valuation of UNP – February 2019
Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?
What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?
| Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests. | ||||
| 1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise | Market Cap > $2Bil | $119,153,679,699 | Pass | |
| 2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition | Current Ratio > 2 | 0.90 | Fail | |
| 3. Earnings Stability | Positive EPS for 10 years prior | Pass | ||
| 4. Dividend Record | Dividend Payments for 10 years prior | Pass | ||
| 5. Earnings Growth | Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end | 193.52% | Pass | |
| 6. Moderate PEmg Ratio | PEmg < 20 | 18.43 | Pass | |
| 7. Moderate Price to Assets | PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 | 5.80 | Fail | |
| Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor. | ||||
| 1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition | Current Ratio > 1.5 | 0.90 | Fail | |
| 2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition | Debt to NCA < 1.1 | -45.19 | Fail | |
| 3. Earnings Stability | Positive EPS for 5 years prior | Pass | ||
| 4. Dividend Record | Currently Pays Dividend | Pass | ||
| 5. Earnings Growth | EPSmg greater than 5 years ago | Pass | ||
Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value
| EPSmg | $8.78 |
| MG Growth Estimate | 10.91% |
| MG Value | $266.08 |
| Opinion | Undervalued |
| MG Grade | C- |
| MG Value based on 3% Growth | $127.26 |
| MG Value based on 0% Growth | $74.60 |
| Market Implied Growth Rate | 4.96% |
| Current Price | $161.72 |
| % of Intrinsic Value | 60.78% |
Union Pacific Corporation does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, high PB ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.
As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $5.08 in 2015 to an estimated $8.78 for 2019. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 4.96% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.
At the time of valuation, further research into Union Pacific Corporation revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $74.34. The company pays a dividend of $3.06 per share, for a yield of 1.9% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 18.43, which was below the industry average of 19.16, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-47.15.
Union Pacific Corporation receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C-.
Stage 3: Information for Further Research
| Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) | -$47.15 |
| Graham Number | $74.34 |
| PEmg | 18.43 |
| Current Ratio | 0.90 |
| PB Ratio | 5.80 |
| Current Dividend | $3.06 |
| Dividend Yield | 1.89% |
| Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth | 12 |
Useful Links:
| ModernGraham tagged articles | Morningstar |
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| GuruFocus | SEC Filings |
Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures
| Balance Sheet Information | 12/1/2018 |
| Total Current Assets | $4,163,000,000 |
| Total Current Liabilities | $4,626,000,000 |
| Long-Term Debt | $20,925,000,000 |
| Total Assets | $59,147,000,000 |
| Intangible Assets | $0 |
| Total Liabilities | $38,724,000,000 |
| Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) | 733,000,000 |
Earnings Per Share History
| EPS History | |
| Next Fiscal Year Estimate | $8.86 |
| Dec2018 | $7.91 |
| Dec2017 | $13.36 |
| Dec2016 | $5.07 |
| Dec2015 | $5.49 |
| Dec2014 | $5.75 |
| Dec2013 | $4.71 |
| Dec2012 | $4.14 |
| Dec2011 | $3.36 |
| Dec2010 | $2.77 |
| Dec2009 | $1.87 |
| Dec2008 | $2.27 |
| Dec2007 | $1.73 |
| Dec2006 | $1.48 |
| Dec2005 | $0.96 |
| Dec2004 | $0.58 |
| Dec2003 | $1.51 |
| Dec2002 | $1.26 |
| Dec2001 | $0.94 |
| Dec2000 | $0.84 |
| Dec1999 | $0.81 |
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History
| EPSmg History | |
| Next Fiscal Year Estimate | $8.78 |
| Dec2018 | $8.33 |
| Dec2017 | $7.98 |
| Dec2016 | $5.21 |
| Dec2015 | $5.08 |
| Dec2014 | $4.63 |
| Dec2013 | $3.84 |
| Dec2012 | $3.23 |
| Dec2011 | $2.65 |
| Dec2010 | $2.20 |
| Dec2009 | $1.83 |
| Dec2008 | $1.68 |
| Dec2007 | $1.34 |
| Dec2006 | $1.15 |
| Dec2005 | $1.01 |
| Dec2004 | $1.03 |
| Dec2003 | $1.19 |
Recommended Reading:
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Disclaimer:
The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.
