Apparel Stocks

VF Corp Valuation – February 2019 $VFC

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): V.F. Corporation (VF), incorporated in December 4, 1899, is engaged in the design, production, procurement, marketing and distribution of branded lifestyle apparel, footwear and related products. The Company’s segments include Outdoor & Action Sports, Jeanswear, Imagewear and Sportswear. It owns a portfolio of brands in the outerwear, footwear, denim, backpack, luggage, accessory, sportswear, occupational and performance apparel categories. Its products are marketed to consumers shopping in specialty stores, department stores, national chains, mass merchants and its own direct-to-consumer operations. Its direct-to-consumer business includes VF-operated stores, concession retail stores and e-commerce sites. Its brands sell products in international markets through licensees, distributors and independently-operated partnership stores. Its products were obtained from 27 VF-operated manufacturing facilities. Its brands primarily include The North Face, Vans, Timberland, Wrangler, Lee, and Kipling.

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of VFC – February 2019

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $33,935,030,729 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.80 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 79.99% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 31.33 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 7.97 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.80 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 1.04 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $2.74
MG Growth Estimate 0.99%
MG Value $28.70
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade B
MG Value based on 3% Growth $39.70
MG Value based on 0% Growth $23.27
Market Implied Growth Rate 11.41%
Current Price $85.78
% of Intrinsic Value 298.89%

VF Corp is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.57 in 2014 to an estimated $2.74 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 11.41% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into VF Corp revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $28.08. The company pays a dividend of $1.72 per share, for a yield of 2% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 31.33, which was below the industry average of 44.2, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-3.43.

VF Corp performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$3.43
Graham Number $28.08
PEmg 31.33
Current Ratio 1.80
PB Ratio 7.97
Current Dividend $1.72
Dividend Yield 2.01%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 20

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2018
Total Current Assets $4,612,091,000
Total Current Liabilities $2,563,047,000
Long-Term Debt $2,135,240,000
Total Assets $10,284,310,000
Intangible Assets $3,812,121,000
Total Liabilities $5,983,686,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 399,767,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.73
Dec2017 $1.52
Dec2016 $2.54
Dec2015 $2.85
Dec2014 $3.02
Dec2013 $2.71
Dec2012 $2.43
Dec2011 $2.00
Dec2010 $1.30
Dec2009 $1.03
Dec2008 $1.36
Dec2007 $1.31
Dec2006 $1.18
Dec2005 $1.11
Dec2004 $1.05
Dec2003 $0.90
Dec2002 -$0.37
Dec2001 $0.30
Dec2000 $0.55
Dec1999 $0.75
Dec1998 $0.78

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.74
Dec2017 $2.34
Dec2016 $2.73
Dec2015 $2.75
Dec2014 $2.57
Dec2013 $2.19
Dec2012 $1.83
Dec2011 $1.49
Dec2010 $1.23
Dec2009 $1.20
Dec2008 $1.25
Dec2007 $1.17
Dec2006 $1.00
Dec2005 $0.80
Dec2004 $0.59
Dec2003 $0.38
Dec2002 $0.22

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

VF Corp Valuation – April 2018 $VFC
Best Dividend Paying Stocks for Dividend Growth Investors – August 2017
Best Dividend Paying Stocks for Dividend Growth Investors – March 2017
Best Dividend Paying Stocks for Dividend Growth Investors – February 2017
Best Dividend Paying Stocks for Dividend Growth Investors – January 2017

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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