Retail Stocks

Tapestry Inc Valuation – February 2019 $TPR

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Tapestry, Inc., formerly Coach, Inc., incorporated on June 1, 2000, is a design house of luxury accessories and lifestyle collections. The Company’s product offering uses a range of leathers, fabrics and materials. The Company’s segments include North America, International and Stuart Weitzman. The Company’s product offering uses a range of leathers, fabrics and materials. The Company’s brands include Coach, Kate Spade, and Stuart Weitzman. The North America segment includes sales of Tapestry brand products to North American customers through Tapestry-operated stores (including the Internet) and sales to North American wholesale customers. The International segment includes sales to consumers through Tapestry-branded stores and concession shop-in-shops in Japan, mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, Singapore, Taiwan, Malaysia, South Korea, the United Kingdom, France, Ireland, Spain, Portugal, Germany, Italy, Austria, Belgium, the Netherlands and Switzerland. The Stuart Weitzman segment includes sales across the world generated by the Stuart Weitzman brand, primarily through department stores in North America and international locations, and within Stuart Weitzman operated stores (including the Internet) in the United States, Canada and Europe.

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of TPR – February 2019

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $9,818,655,256 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 2.74 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -31.44% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 17.34 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 2.99 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 2.74 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 1.02 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $1.95
MG Growth Estimate -3.80%
MG Value $1.77
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade C+
MG Value based on 3% Growth $28.31
MG Value based on 0% Growth $16.60
Market Implied Growth Rate 4.42%
Current Price $33.86
% of Intrinsic Value 1917.37%

Tapestry Inc is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years, and the high PB ratio. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the lack of earnings growth over the last five years. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $2.61 in 2015 to an estimated $1.95 for 2019. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 4.42% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Tapestry Inc revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $25.42. The company pays a dividend of $1.35 per share, for a yield of 4%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 17.34, which was below the industry average of 27.33, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-3.17.

Tapestry Inc receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C+.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$3.17
Graham Number $25.42
PEmg 17.34
Current Ratio 2.74
PB Ratio 2.99
Current Dividend $1.35
Dividend Yield 3.99%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 9/1/2018
Total Current Assets $2,467,500,000
Total Current Liabilities $899,400,000
Long-Term Debt $1,594,500,000
Total Assets $6,703,300,000
Intangible Assets $3,213,500,000
Total Liabilities $3,393,700,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 292,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.55
Jun2018 $1.38
Jun2017 $2.09
Jun2016 $1.65
Jun2015 $1.45
Jun2014 $2.79
Jun2013 $3.61
Jun2012 $3.53
Jun2011 $2.92
Jun2010 $2.33
Jun2009 $1.91
Jun2008 $2.17
Jun2007 $1.76
Jun2006 $1.27
Jun2005 $0.86
Jun2004 $0.57
Jun2003 $0.33
Jun2002 $0.24
Jun2001 $0.19
Jun2000 $0.14
Jun1999 $0.06

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.95
Jun2018 $1.73
Jun2017 $2.04
Jun2016 $2.21
Jun2015 $2.61
Jun2014 $3.14
Jun2013 $3.17
Jun2012 $2.82
Jun2011 $2.38
Jun2010 $2.04
Jun2009 $1.79
Jun2008 $1.60
Jun2007 $1.20
Jun2006 $0.83
Jun2005 $0.55
Jun2004 $0.36
Jun2003 $0.23

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Tapestry Inc Valuation – April 2018 $TPR

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Disclaimer:

The author held a long position in TPR but did not hold a position in any other company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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