Pharmaceuticals Stocks

Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc Valuation – February 2019 $REGN

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc., incorporated on January 11, 1988, is a biopharmaceutical company that discovers, invents, develops, manufactures and commercializes medicines for the treatment of serious medical conditions. The Company commercializes medicines for eye diseases, high low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol, and an inflammatory condition and have product candidates in development in other areas, including rheumatoid arthritis, asthma, atopic dermatitis, pain, cancer, and infectious diseases. The Company’s marketed products include EYLEA (aflibercept) Injection, Praluent (alirocumab) Injection, ARCALYST (rilonacept) Injection for Subcutaneous Use, Kevzara (sarilumab) Solution for Subcutaneous Injection and ZALTRAP (ziv-aflibercept) Injection for intravenous infusion. As of December 31, 2016, the Company had 16 product candidates in clinical development, which consisted of a Trap-based clinical program and 15 fully human monoclonal antibody product candidates. Its antibodies are generated using its VelocImmune technology.

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of REGN – February 2019

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $45,297,630,364 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 4.47 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 1470.07% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 29.08 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 5.52 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 4.47 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.00 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Fail
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $14.51
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $558.51
Opinion Fairly Valued
MG Grade C+
MG Value based on 3% Growth $210.35
MG Value based on 0% Growth $123.31
Market Implied Growth Rate 10.29%
Current Price $421.90
% of Intrinsic Value 75.54%

Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the lack of dividends. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Fairly Valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $4.12 in 2015 to an estimated $14.51 for 2019. This level of demonstrated earnings growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 10.29% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value within a margin of safety relative to the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $170.59. The company does not pay a dividend. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 29.08, which was below the industry average of 39.51, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $30.26.

Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C+.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) $30.26
Graham Number $170.59
PEmg 29.08
Current Ratio 4.47
PB Ratio 5.52
Current Dividend $0.00
Dividend Yield 0.00%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2018
Total Current Assets $6,447,600,000
Total Current Liabilities $1,442,800,000
Long-Term Debt $0
Total Assets $11,734,500,000
Intangible Assets $0
Total Liabilities $2,977,200,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 114,671,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $16.10
Dec2018 $21.29
Dec2017 $10.34
Dec2016 $7.70
Dec2015 $5.52
Dec2014 $2.98
Dec2013 $3.72
Dec2012 $6.75
Dec2011 -$2.45
Dec2010 -$1.26
Dec2009 -$0.85
Dec2008 -$1.00
Dec2007 -$1.59
Dec2006 -$1.77
Dec2005 -$1.71
Dec2004 $0.74
Dec2003 -$2.13
Dec2002 -$2.83
Dec2001 -$1.81
Dec2000 -$0.66
Dec1999 -$0.74

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $14.51
Dec2018 $12.33
Dec2017 $7.25
Dec2016 $5.58
Dec2015 $4.12
Dec2014 $2.92
Dec2013 $2.33
Dec2012 $1.16
Dec2011 -$1.56
Dec2010 -$1.18
Dec2009 -$1.22
Dec2008 -$1.29
Dec2007 -$1.39
Dec2006 -$1.37
Dec2005 -$1.30
Dec2004 -$1.17
Dec2003 -$1.96

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc Valuation – April 2018 $REGN
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc Valuation – November 2016 $REGN
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc Valuation – August 2016 $REGN
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc. Annual Valuation – 2015 $REGN
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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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