Restaurants Stocks

Yum Brands Inc Valuation – February 2019 $YUM

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): YUM! Brands, Inc., incorporated on May 30, 1997, is engaged in restaurant business. As of December 31, 2016, the Company operated or franchised over 43,500 restaurants in more than 135 countries and territories operating under the KFC, Pizza Hut or Taco Bell (collectively the Concepts) brands. The Company operates through three segments: The KFC Division, which includes the operations of the KFC concept around the world; The Pizza Hut Division, which includes the operations of the Pizza Hut concept around the world, and The Taco Bell Division, which includes the operations of the Taco Bell concept around the world. Through its KFC, Pizza Hut and Taco Bell Concepts, the Company develops, operates or franchises a system of restaurants, which prepare, package and sell a menu of priced food items.

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of YUM – February 2019

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $29,581,245,821 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 0.93 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 40.94% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 24.18 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 -3.82 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 0.93 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 -103.73 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $3.92
MG Growth Estimate 6.84%
MG Value $86.92
Opinion Fairly Valued
MG Grade D+
MG Value based on 3% Growth $56.81
MG Value based on 0% Growth $33.30
Market Implied Growth Rate 7.84%
Current Price $94.72
% of Intrinsic Value 108.98%

Yum! Brands, Inc. does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Fairly Valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.69 in 2015 to an estimated $3.92 for 2019. This level of demonstrated earnings growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 7.84% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value within a margin of safety relative to the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Yum! Brands, Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $0. The company pays a dividend of $1.44 per share, for a yield of 1.5% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 24.18, which was below the industry average of 31.73, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-33.9.

Yum! Brands, Inc. scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D+.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$33.90
Graham Number $0.00
PEmg 24.18
Current Ratio 0.93
PB Ratio -3.82
Current Dividend $1.44
Dividend Yield 1.52%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 1

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2018
Total Current Assets $1,207,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $1,301,000,000
Long-Term Debt $9,751,000,000
Total Assets $4,130,000,000
Intangible Assets $767,000,000
Total Liabilities $12,056,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 320,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.52
Dec2018 $4.69
Dec2017 $3.77
Dec2016 $4.10
Dec2015 $2.90
Dec2014 $2.32
Dec2013 $2.36
Dec2012 $3.38
Dec2011 $2.74
Dec2010 $2.38
Dec2009 $2.22
Dec2008 $1.96
Dec2007 $1.68
Dec2006 $1.46
Dec2005 $1.28
Dec2004 $1.21
Dec2003 $1.01
Dec2002 $0.94
Dec2001 $0.81
Dec2000 $0.69
Dec1999 $0.98

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.92
Dec2018 $3.93
Dec2017 $3.40
Dec2016 $3.14
Dec2015 $2.69
Dec2014 $2.60
Dec2013 $2.70
Dec2012 $2.76
Dec2011 $2.37
Dec2010 $2.10
Dec2009 $1.88
Dec2008 $1.64
Dec2007 $1.43
Dec2006 $1.27
Dec2005 $1.13
Dec2004 $1.01
Dec2003 $0.91

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Yum Brands Inc Valuation – April 2018 $YUM
Yum Brands Inc Valuation – December 2016 $YUM
5 of the Worst Stocks to Invest In – August 2016
Yum! Brands Inc Valuation – August 2016 $YUM
5 Speculative and Overvalued Companies to Avoid – March 2015

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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