Norfolk Southern Corp Valuation – February 2019 $NSC
Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Norfolk Southern Corporation, incorporated on August 24, 2009, is a holding company engaged principally in the rail transportation business. As of December 31, 2016, the Company operated approximately 19,500 miles of road primarily in the East and Midwest. The Company is engaged in the rail transportation of raw materials, intermediate products and finished goods primarily in the Southeast, East and Midwest, and through interchange with rail carriers, to and from the rest of the United States. It also transports overseas freight through several Atlantic and Gulf Coast ports. It offers an intermodal network in the eastern half of the United States. The Company’s system reaches various manufacturing plants, electric generating facilities, mines, distribution centers and other businesses located in its service area.
Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:
ModernGraham Valuation of NSC – February 2019
Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?
What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?
| Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests. | ||||
| 1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise | Market Cap > $2Bil | $49,083,342,742 | Pass | |
| 2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition | Current Ratio > 2 | 0.72 | Fail | |
| 3. Earnings Stability | Positive EPS for 10 years prior | Pass | ||
| 4. Dividend Record | Dividend Payments for 10 years prior | Pass | ||
| 5. Earnings Growth | Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end | 157.89% | Pass | |
| 6. Moderate PEmg Ratio | PEmg < 20 | 17.13 | Pass | |
| 7. Moderate Price to Assets | PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 | 3.26 | Fail | |
| Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor. | ||||
| 1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition | Current Ratio > 1.5 | 0.72 | Fail | |
| 2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition | Debt to NCA < 1.1 | -14.49 | Fail | |
| 3. Earnings Stability | Positive EPS for 5 years prior | Pass | ||
| 4. Dividend Record | Currently Pays Dividend | Pass | ||
| 5. Earnings Growth | EPSmg greater than 5 years ago | Pass | ||
Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value
| EPSmg | $10.71 |
| MG Growth Estimate | 13.24% |
| MG Value | $374.73 |
| Opinion | Undervalued |
| MG Grade | C- |
| MG Value based on 3% Growth | $155.35 |
| MG Value based on 0% Growth | $91.07 |
| Market Implied Growth Rate | 4.31% |
| Current Price | $183.52 |
| % of Intrinsic Value | 48.97% |
Norfolk Southern Corp. does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, high PB ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.
As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $5.69 in 2015 to an estimated $10.71 for 2019. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 4.31% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.
At the time of valuation, further research into Norfolk Southern Corp. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $114.11. The company pays a dividend of $3.04 per share, for a yield of 1.7% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 17.13, which was below the industry average of 19.16, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-69.65.
Norfolk Southern Corp. receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C-.
Stage 3: Information for Further Research
| Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) | -$69.65 |
| Graham Number | $114.11 |
| PEmg | 17.13 |
| Current Ratio | 0.72 |
| PB Ratio | 3.26 |
| Current Dividend | $3.04 |
| Dividend Yield | 1.66% |
| Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth | 2 |
Useful Links:
| ModernGraham tagged articles | Morningstar |
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| GuruFocus | SEC Filings |
Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures
| Balance Sheet Information | 12/1/2018 |
| Total Current Assets | $1,862,000,000 |
| Total Current Liabilities | $2,591,000,000 |
| Long-Term Debt | $10,560,000,000 |
| Total Assets | $36,239,000,000 |
| Intangible Assets | $0 |
| Total Liabilities | $20,877,000,000 |
| Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) | 273,000,000 |
Earnings Per Share History
| EPS History | |
| Next Fiscal Year Estimate | $10.10 |
| Dec2018 | $9.51 |
| Dec2017 | $18.61 |
| Dec2016 | $5.62 |
| Dec2015 | $5.10 |
| Dec2014 | $6.39 |
| Dec2013 | $6.04 |
| Dec2012 | $5.37 |
| Dec2011 | $5.45 |
| Dec2010 | $4.00 |
| Dec2009 | $2.76 |
| Dec2008 | $4.52 |
| Dec2007 | $3.68 |
| Dec2006 | $3.57 |
| Dec2005 | $3.11 |
| Dec2004 | $2.31 |
| Dec2003 | $1.37 |
| Dec2002 | $1.18 |
| Dec2001 | $0.97 |
| Dec2000 | $0.45 |
| Dec1999 | $0.63 |
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History
| EPSmg History | |
| Next Fiscal Year Estimate | $10.71 |
| Dec2018 | $10.36 |
| Dec2017 | $9.98 |
| Dec2016 | $5.67 |
| Dec2015 | $5.69 |
| Dec2014 | $5.81 |
| Dec2013 | $5.25 |
| Dec2012 | $4.71 |
| Dec2011 | $4.28 |
| Dec2010 | $3.70 |
| Dec2009 | $3.54 |
| Dec2008 | $3.77 |
| Dec2007 | $3.20 |
| Dec2006 | $2.74 |
| Dec2005 | $2.15 |
| Dec2004 | $1.53 |
| Dec2003 | $1.07 |
Recommended Reading:
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Disclaimer:
The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.
