Food Processing Stocks

McCormick & Co Valuation – February 2019 $MKC

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): McCormick & Company, Incorporated, incorporated on November 30, 1915, is engaged in manufacturing, marketing and distributing spices, seasoning mixes, condiments and other flavorful products to the food industry, including retailers, food manufacturers and foodservice businesses. The Company’s segments include consumer and industrial. The Company is involved in the manufacturing and sales of flavorful products. The Company’s sales, distribution and production facilities are located in North America, Europe and China. Its additional facilities are based in Australia, Mexico, India, Singapore, Central America, Thailand and South Africa.

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of MKC – February 2019

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $17,588,659,997 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 0.74 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 85.31% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 26.45 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 5.60 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 0.74 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 -7.77 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $5.04
MG Growth Estimate 9.37%
MG Value $137.16
Opinion Fairly Valued
MG Grade C
MG Value based on 3% Growth $73.03
MG Value based on 0% Growth $42.81
Market Implied Growth Rate 8.97%
Current Price $133.20
% of Intrinsic Value 97.12%

MCCORMICK & CO /SH NV does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Fairly Valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $3.1 in 2015 to an estimated $5.04 for 2019. This level of demonstrated earnings growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 8.97% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value within a margin of safety relative to the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into MCCORMICK & CO /SH NV revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $52.98. The company pays a dividend of $2.08 per share, for a yield of 1.6% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 26.45, which was below the industry average of 26.71, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-41.81.

MCCORMICK & CO /SH NV receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$41.81
Graham Number $52.98
PEmg 26.45
Current Ratio 0.74
PB Ratio 5.60
Current Dividend $2.08
Dividend Yield 1.56%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 20

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 11/1/2018
Total Current Assets $1,479,900,000
Total Current Liabilities $2,001,700,000
Long-Term Debt $4,052,900,000
Total Assets $10,256,400,000
Intangible Assets $7,401,200,000
Total Liabilities $7,074,200,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 133,800,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $5.18
Nov2018 $7.00
Nov2017 $3.72
Nov2016 $3.69
Nov2015 $3.11
Nov2014 $3.34
Nov2013 $2.91
Nov2012 $3.04
Nov2011 $2.79
Nov2010 $2.75
Nov2009 $2.27
Nov2008 $1.94
Nov2007 $1.73
Nov2006 $1.50
Nov2005 $1.56
Nov2004 $1.52
Nov2003 $1.48
Nov2002 $1.26
Nov2001 $0.53
Nov2000 $0.99
Nov1999 $0.72

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $5.04
Nov2018 $4.70
Nov2017 $3.49
Nov2016 $3.32
Nov2015 $3.10
Nov2014 $3.05
Nov2013 $2.86
Nov2012 $2.74
Nov2011 $2.49
Nov2010 $2.24
Nov2009 $1.92
Nov2008 $1.72
Nov2007 $1.59
Nov2006 $1.50
Nov2005 $1.42
Nov2004 $1.29
Nov2003 $1.11

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

McCormick & Co Inc Valuation – May 2018 $MKC
McCormick & Company Valuation – January 2017 $MKC
McCormick & Company Inc. Analysis – August 2015 Update $MKC
20 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 8/16/14
McCormick & Company Inc. Annual Valuation – 2014 $MKC

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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