Construction Stocks

D.R. Horton Inc Valuation – February 2019 $DHI

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): D.R. Horton, Inc., incorporated on July 1, 1991, is a homebuilding company. The Company has operations in 84 markets in 29 states across the United States. The Company’s segments include its 44 homebuilding divisions, its financial services operations and its other business activities. It operates under the names of D.R. Horton, America’s Builder, Express Homes, Emerald Homes, Regent Homes, Crown Communities and Pacific Ridge Homes.

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of DHI – February 2019

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $14,964,927,009 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 9.26 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 169.76% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 12.44 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.64 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 9.26 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.30 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $3.22
MG Growth Estimate 12.97%
MG Value $110.91
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade A-
MG Value based on 3% Growth $46.70
MG Value based on 0% Growth $27.38
Market Implied Growth Rate 1.97%
Current Price $40.08
% of Intrinsic Value 36.14%

D. R. Horton Inc qualifies for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor. In fact, the company meets all of the requirements of both investor types, a rare accomplishment indicative of the company’s strong financial position. . The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.73 in 2015 to an estimated $3.22 for 2019. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 1.97% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into D. R. Horton Inc revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $44.1. The company pays a dividend of $0.5 per share, for a yield of 1.2% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 12.44, which was below the industry average of 20.47, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $18.75.

D. R. Horton Inc fares extremely well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring an A-.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) $18.75
Graham Number $44.10
PEmg 12.44
Current Ratio 9.26
PB Ratio 1.64
Current Dividend $0.50
Dividend Yield 1.25%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 5

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2018
Total Current Assets $12,363,900,000
Total Current Liabilities $1,335,500,000
Long-Term Debt $3,342,300,000
Total Assets $14,535,800,000
Intangible Assets $158,400,000
Total Liabilities $5,237,600,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 380,100,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.62
Sep2018 $3.81
Sep2017 $2.74
Sep2016 $2.36
Sep2015 $2.03
Sep2014 $1.50
Sep2013 $1.33
Sep2012 $2.77
Sep2011 $0.23
Sep2010 $0.77
Sep2009 -$1.73
Sep2008 -$8.34
Sep2007 -$2.27
Sep2006 $3.90
Sep2005 $4.62
Sep2004 $2.32
Sep2003 $1.37
Sep2002 $1.44
Sep2001 $1.11
Sep2000 $0.84
Sep1999 $0.63

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.22
Sep2018 $2.84
Sep2017 $2.24
Sep2016 $1.99
Sep2015 $1.73
Sep2014 $1.49
Sep2013 $1.22
Sep2012 $0.35
Sep2011 -$1.33
Sep2010 -$1.92
Sep2009 -$2.43
Sep2008 -$1.83
Sep2007 $1.61
Sep2006 $3.27
Sep2005 $2.70
Sep2004 $1.63
Sep2003 $1.21

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

D.R. Horton Inc Valuation – May 2018 $DHI
Stocks Trading Closest to Net Current Asset Value – April 2017
15 Best Stocks for Value Investors This Week – 1/14/17
D.R. Horton Inc Valuation – January 2017 $DHI
10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – August 2016

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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