Construction Stocks

Jacobs Engineering Group Inc Valuation – March 2019 #JEC

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Jacobs Engineering Group Inc., incorporated on January 8, 1987, is a technical professional services company. The Company provides a range of technical, professional and construction services to industrial, commercial and governmental clients. The Company’s services include Project Services; Process, Scientific, and Systems Consulting Services; Construction Services, and Operations and Maintenance Services. The Company operates four lines of business (LOBs): Petroleum and Chemicals; Buildings and Infrastructure; Aerospace and Technology, and Industrial. It caters its services to various sectors, such as oil and gas exploration, production and refining; chemicals and polymers; programs for various national governments, including aerospace, defense, and environmental programs; buildings (including specialized buildings for clients operating in the fields of healthcare, education, and high technology; governmental complexes; other specialized civic and mission critical buildings, installations, and laboratories; and retail and commercial buildings); infrastructure and telecommunications; mining and minerals; pharmaceuticals and biotechnology; power; pulp and paper; technology and manufacturing, and food and consumer products.

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of JEC – March 2019

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $10,214,039,442 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.58 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 2.27% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 28.76 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.80 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.58 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 1.48 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $2.55
MG Growth Estimate -0.71%
MG Value $18.04
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade F
MG Value based on 3% Growth $36.93
MG Value based on 0% Growth $21.65
Market Implied Growth Rate 10.13%
Current Price $73.24
% of Intrinsic Value 405.88%

Jacobs Engineering Group Inc does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history, and the high PEmg ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the net current assets, and the lack of earnings growth over the last five years. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $2.67 in 2015 to an estimated $2.55 for 2019. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 10.13% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Jacobs Engineering Group Inc revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $61.47. The company pays a dividend of $0.75 per share, for a yield of 1% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 28.76, which was above the industry average of 20.99. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-15.36.

Jacobs Engineering Group Inc scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of F.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$15.36
Graham Number $61.47
PEmg 28.76
Current Ratio 1.58
PB Ratio 1.80
Current Dividend $0.75
Dividend Yield 1.02%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 2

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2018
Total Current Assets $4,898,862,000
Total Current Liabilities $3,094,724,000
Long-Term Debt $2,668,993,000
Total Assets $12,945,259,000
Intangible Assets $5,323,116,000
Total Liabilities $7,104,225,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 143,578,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $4.08
Sep2018 $1.17
Sep2017 $2.42
Sep2016 $1.73
Sep2015 $2.40
Sep2014 $2.48
Sep2013 $3.23
Sep2012 $2.94
Sep2011 $2.60
Sep2010 $1.96
Sep2009 $3.21
Sep2008 $3.38
Sep2007 $2.35
Sep2006 $1.64
Sep2005 $1.12
Sep2004 $1.01
Sep2003 $1.00
Sep2002 $0.99
Sep2001 $0.81
Sep2000 $0.48
Sep1999 $0.62

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.55
Sep2018 $1.87
Sep2017 $2.29
Sep2016 $2.34
Sep2015 $2.67
Sep2014 $2.75
Sep2013 $2.86
Sep2012 $2.72
Sep2011 $2.64
Sep2010 $2.61
Sep2009 $2.73
Sep2008 $2.30
Sep2007 $1.65
Sep2006 $1.25
Sep2005 $1.03
Sep2004 $0.94
Sep2003 $0.86

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Jacobs Engineering Group Inc Valuation – May 2018 $JEC
Jacobs Engineering Group Inc Valuation – January 2017 $JEC
Jacobs Engineering Group Inc Valuation – August 2016 $JEC
Jacobs Engineering Group Inc Valuation – January 2016 Update $JEC
Jacobs Engineering Group Analysis – October 2015 Update $JEC

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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