Banks Stocks

US Bancorp Valuation – March 2019 #USB

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): U.S. Bancorp, incorporated on April 2, 1929, is a multi-state financial services holding company. The Company provides a full range of financial services, including lending and depository services, cash management, capital markets, and trust and investment management services. It also engages in credit card services, merchant and automated teller machine (ATM) processing, mortgage banking, insurance, brokerage and leasing. The Company’s banking subsidiary, U.S. Bank National Association, is engaged in the general banking business, principally in domestic markets. U.S. Bank National Association provides a range of products and services to individuals, businesses, institutional organizations, governmental entities and other financial institutions.

USB Chart

USB data by YCharts

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of USB – March 2019

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

 

Defensive Investor; must pass all 6 of the following tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $81,855,808,103 Pass
2. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
3. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
4. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 69.13% Pass
5. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 13.24 Pass
6. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.60 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass all 3 of the following tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
2. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
3. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $3.86
MG Growth Estimate 4.20%
MG Value $65.26
Opinion Fairly Valued
MG Grade A-
MG Value based on 3% Growth $56.00
MG Value based on 0% Growth $32.83
Market Implied Growth Rate 2.37%
Current Price $51.14
% of Intrinsic Value 78.36%

U.S. Bancorp qualifies for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor. In fact, the company meets all of the requirements of both investor types, a rare accomplishment indicative of the company’s strong financial position . The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Fairly Valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $3.02 in 2015 to an estimated $3.86 for 2019. This level of demonstrated earnings growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 2.37% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value within a margin of safety relative to the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into U.S. Bancorp revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $51.57. The company pays a dividend of $1.34 per share, for a yield of 2.6%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 13.24, which was below the industry average of 16.75, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry.

U.S. Bancorp fares extremely well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring an A-.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Graham Number $51.57
PEmg 13.24
PB Ratio 1.60
Dividend Yield 2.62%
TTM Dividend $1.34
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 8

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2018
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation $41,340,000,000
Total Assets $467,374,000,000
Intangible Assets $12,761,000,000
Total Liabilities $415,717,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 1,617,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $4.24
Dec2018 $4.14
Dec2017 $3.51
Dec2016 $3.24
Dec2015 $3.16
Dec2014 $3.08
Dec2013 $3.00
Dec2012 $2.84
Dec2011 $2.46
Dec2010 $1.73
Dec2009 $0.97
Dec2008 $1.61
Dec2007 $2.43
Dec2006 $2.61
Dec2005 $2.42
Dec2004 $2.18
Dec2003 $1.93
Dec2002 $1.65
Dec2001 $0.88
Dec2000 $1.50
Dec1999 $2.06

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.86
Dec2018 $3.59
Dec2017 $3.28
Dec2016 $3.13
Dec2015 $3.02
Dec2014 $2.84
Dec2013 $2.54
Dec2012 $2.19
Dec2011 $1.85
Dec2010 $1.66
Dec2009 $1.75
Dec2008 $2.17
Dec2007 $2.41
Dec2006 $2.32
Dec2005 $2.05
Dec2004 $1.79
Dec2003 $1.60

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

US Bancorp Valuation – May 2018 $USB
12 Best Stocks for Value Investors This Week – 2/4/17
U.S. Bancorp Valuation – February 2017 $USB
15 Best Undervalued Stocks of the Week – 8/20/16
US Bancorp Valuation – August 2016 $USB

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Citizens Financial Group Inc Valuation – February 2019 $CFG
BB&T Corp Valuation – February 2019 $BBT
M&T Bank Corp Valuation – February 2019 $MTB
Bank of America Corp Valuation – January 2019 $BAC
Fifth Third Bancorp Valuation – January 2019 $FITB
Zions Bancorp Valuation – January 2019 $ZION
Regions Financial Corp Valuation – January 2019 $RF
Huntington Bancshares Inc Valuation – January 2019 $HBAN
PNC Financial Services Group Inc Valuation – January 2019 $PNC
KeyCorp Valuation – January 2019 $KEY

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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