Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Dollar Tree, Inc., incorporated on February 22, 2008, is an operator of discount variety stores. As of January 28, 2017, the Company operated 14,334 stores in 48 states and the District of Columbia, and five Canadian provinces. The Company’s segments include Dollar Tree and Family Dollar. The Dollar Tree segment is the operator of discount variety stores offering merchandise at a fixed price. The Family Dollar segment operates a chain of general merchandise retail discount stores providing consumers with a selection of merchandise in neighborhood stores. The Company’s stores operate under the names of Dollar Tree, Family Dollar and Dollar Tree Canada. As of January 28, 2017, the Dollar Tree segment included 6,360 stores operating under the Dollar Tree and Dollar Tree Canada brands, 11 distribution centers in the United States and two in Canada and a Store Support Center in Chesapeake, Virginia. The Family Dollar segment consists of its operations under the Family Dollar brand, 11 distribution centers and a Store Support Center in Matthews, North Carolina. As of January 28, 2017, the Company offered 7,100 items in its stores. The Company offers a range of everyday basic products, and supplements these basic, everyday items with seasonal, closeout and promotional merchandise.
Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:
Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?
|Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.|
|1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise||Market Cap > $2Bil||$24,548,986,071||Pass|
|2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Current Ratio > 2||2.22||Pass|
|3. Earnings Stability||Positive EPS for 10 years prior||Pass|
|4. Dividend Record||Dividend Payments for 10 years prior||Fail|
|5. Earnings Growth||Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end||220.13%||Pass|
|6. Moderate PEmg Ratio||PEmg < 20||23.23||Fail|
|7. Moderate Price to Assets||PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50||3.10||Fail|
|Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.|
|1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Current Ratio > 1.5||2.22||Pass|
|2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Debt to NCA < 1.1||1.93||Fail|
|3. Earnings Stability||Positive EPS for 5 years prior||Pass|
|4. Dividend Record||Currently Pays Dividend||Fail|
|5. Earnings Growth||EPSmg greater than 5 years ago||Pass|
Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value
|MG Growth Estimate||10.62%|
|MG Value based on 3% Growth||$64.38|
|MG Value based on 0% Growth||$37.74|
|Market Implied Growth Rate||7.37%|
|% of Intrinsic Value||78.11%|
Dollar Tree, Inc. does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the poor dividend history, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the net current assets, and the lack of dividends. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.
As for a valuation, the company appears to be Fairly Valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.6 in 2015 to an estimated $4.44 for 2019. This level of demonstrated earnings growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 7.37% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value within a margin of safety relative to the price.
At the time of valuation, further research into Dollar Tree, Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $53.48. The company does not pay a dividend. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 23.23, which was below the industry average of 27.69, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-16.58.
Dollar Tree, Inc. scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D+.
Stage 3: Information for Further Research
|Net Current Asset Value (NCAV)||-$16.58|
|Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth||0|
|ModernGraham tagged articles||Morningstar|
|Google Finance||MSN Money|
|Yahoo Finance||Seeking Alpha|
Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures
|Balance Sheet Information||10/1/2018|
|Total Current Assets||$4,749,500,000|
|Total Current Liabilities||$2,135,700,000|
|Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)||238,700,000|
Earnings Per Share History
|Next Fiscal Year Estimate||$4.20|
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History
|Next Fiscal Year Estimate||$4.44|
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The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours. See my current holdings here. This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions. ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner. Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.