Texas Instruments Inc Valuation – March 2019 #TXN

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Texas Instruments Incorporated, incorporated on December 23, 1938, designs, makes and sells semiconductors to electronics designers and manufacturers across the world. The Company operates through two segments: Analog and Embedded Processing. As of December 31, 2016, the Company had design, manufacturing or sales operations in more than 30 countries.


Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of TXN – March 2019

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $100,065,963,125 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 3.27 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 131.11% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 24.10 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 11.50 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 3.27 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.77 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass


Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $4.43
MG Growth Estimate 13.46%
MG Value $156.82
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade B
MG Value based on 3% Growth $64.21
MG Value based on 0% Growth $37.64
Market Implied Growth Rate 7.80%
Current Price $106.73
% of Intrinsic Value 68.06%

Texas Instruments Incorporated is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.33 in 2015 to an estimated $4.43 for 2019. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 7.79% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Texas Instruments Incorporated revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $31.69. The company pays a dividend of $2.63 per share, for a yield of 2.5%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 24.07, which was below the industry average of 35.5, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-0.05.

Texas Instruments Incorporated performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$0.05
Graham Number $31.69
PEmg 24.07
Current Ratio 3.27
PB Ratio 11.48
Current Dividend $2.63
Dividend Yield 2.47%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 15


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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2018
Total Current Assets $8,097,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $2,474,000,000
Long-Term Debt $4,319,000,000
Total Assets $17,137,000,000
Intangible Assets $5,079,000,000
Total Liabilities $8,143,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 969,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $4.69
Dec2018 $5.59
Dec2017 $3.61
Dec2016 $3.48
Dec2015 $2.82
Dec2014 $2.57
Dec2013 $1.91
Dec2012 $1.51
Dec2011 $1.88
Dec2010 $2.62
Dec2009 $1.15
Dec2008 $1.44
Dec2007 $1.84
Dec2006 $2.78
Dec2005 $1.39
Dec2004 $1.05
Dec2003 $0.60
Dec2002 -$0.20
Dec2001 -$0.12
Dec2000 $1.71
Dec1999 $0.83

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $4.43
Dec2018 $4.07
Dec2017 $3.17
Dec2016 $2.78
Dec2015 $2.33
Dec2014 $2.09
Dec2013 $1.84
Dec2012 $1.78
Dec2011 $1.87
Dec2010 $1.90
Dec2009 $1.60
Dec2008 $1.78
Dec2007 $1.81
Dec2006 $1.57
Dec2005 $0.83
Dec2004 $0.57
Dec2003 $0.41

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Texas Instruments Inc Valuation – May 2018 $TXN
5 Best Stocks for Value Investors This Week – 2/18/17
Texas Instruments Inc Valuation – February 2017 $TXN
Texas Instruments Inc Valuation – August 2016 $TXN
15 Best Stocks For Value Investors This Week – 2/13/16

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The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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