Target Corporation Valuation – March 2019 #TGT

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Target Corporation (Target), incorporated on February 11, 1902, is a general merchandise retailer selling products through its stores and digital channels. The Company’s general merchandise stores offer an edited food assortment, including perishables, dry grocery, dairy and frozen items. The Company’s digital channels include a range of general merchandise, including a range of items found in its stores, along with an assortment, such as additional sizes and colors sold only online. The Company’s owned brands include Archer Farms, Market Pantry, Sutton & Dodge, Art Class, Merona, Threshold, Ava & Viv, Pillowfort, up & up, Boots & Barkley, Room Essentials, Wine Cube, Cat & Jack, Simply Balanced, Wondershop, Embark, Smith & Hawken, Xhilaration, Gilligan & O’Malley, Sonia Kashuk, Knox Rose and Spritz.


Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of TGT – March 2019

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $40,036,461,292 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 0.83 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 27.42% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 14.51 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 3.60 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 0.83 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 -4.10 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass


Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $5.34
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $205.72
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade B-
MG Value based on 3% Growth $77.48
MG Value based on 0% Growth $45.42
Market Implied Growth Rate 3.01%
Current Price $77.54
% of Intrinsic Value 37.69%

Target Corporation does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the high PB ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.58 in 2016 to an estimated $5.34 for 2020. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 3.01% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Target Corporation revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $51.81. The company pays a dividend of $2.52 per share, for a yield of 3.2%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 14.51, which was below the industry average of 27.69, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-33.33.

Target Corporation performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B-.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$33.33
Graham Number $51.81
PEmg 14.51
Current Ratio 0.83
PB Ratio 3.60
Current Dividend $2.52
Dividend Yield 3.25%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 20

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 1/1/2019
Total Current Assets $12,519,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $15,014,000,000
Long-Term Debt $10,223,000,000
Total Assets $41,290,000,000
Intangible Assets $699,000,000
Total Liabilities $29,993,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 524,200,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $5.51
Jan2019 $5.51
Jan2018 $5.29
Jan2017 $4.69
Jan2016 $5.31
Jan2015 -$2.58
Jan2014 $3.07
Jan2013 $4.52
Jan2012 $4.28
Jan2011 $4.00
Jan2010 $3.30
Jan2009 $2.86
Jan2008 $3.33
Jan2007 $3.21
Jan2006 $2.71
Jan2005 $3.51
Jan2004 $1.76
Jan2003 $1.78
Jan2002 $1.21
Jan2001 $1.38
Jan2000 $1.23

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $5.34
Jan2019 $4.72
Jan2018 $3.94
Jan2017 $3.17
Jan2016 $2.58
Jan2015 $1.70
Jan2014 $3.84
Jan2013 $4.08
Jan2012 $3.76
Jan2011 $3.44
Jan2010 $3.14
Jan2009 $3.08
Jan2008 $3.09
Jan2007 $2.85
Jan2006 $2.51
Jan2005 $2.25
Jan2004 $1.57

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Target Corp Valuation – June 2018 $TGT
Target Corp Valuation – March 2017 $TGT
Target Corp Valuation – August 2016 $TGT
Target Corporation Stock Analysis – 2015 Update $TGT
17 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – June 21, 2014

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The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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