Celgene Corp Valuation – March 2019 #CELG
Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Celgene Corporation, incorporated on April 17, 1986, is an integrated global biopharmaceutical company. The Company, together with its subsidiaries, is engaged in the discovery, development and commercialization of therapies for the treatment of cancer and inflammatory diseases through solutions in protein homeostasis, immuno-oncology, epigenetics, immunology and neuro-inflammation. The Company’s commercial-stage products include REVLIMID (lenalidomide), POMALYST/IMNOVID (pomalidomide), OTEZLA (apremilast), ABRAXANE (paclitaxel albumin-bound particles for injectable suspension), VIDAZA, azacitidine for injection (generic version of VIDAZA) and THALOMID (thalidomide). Its clinical trial activity includes trials across the disease areas of hematology, solid tumors, and inflammation and immunology. The Company also markets ISTODAX, which is an epigenetic modifier.
Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:
ModernGraham Valuation of CELG – March 2019
Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?
What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?
| Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests. | ||||
| 1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise | Market Cap > $2Bil | $61,820,626,782 | Pass | |
| 2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition | Current Ratio > 2 | 2.23 | Pass | |
| 3. Earnings Stability | Positive EPS for 10 years prior | Pass | ||
| 4. Dividend Record | Dividend Payments for 10 years prior | Fail | ||
| 5. Earnings Growth | Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end | 391.91% | Pass | |
| 6. Moderate PEmg Ratio | PEmg < 20 | 14.21 | Pass | |
| 7. Moderate Price to Assets | PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 | 10.20 | Fail | |
| Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor. | ||||
| 1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition | Current Ratio > 1.5 | 2.23 | Pass | |
| 2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition | Debt to NCA < 1.1 | 3.95 | Fail | |
| 3. Earnings Stability | Positive EPS for 5 years prior | Pass | ||
| 4. Dividend Record | Currently Pays Dividend | Fail | ||
| 5. Earnings Growth | EPSmg greater than 5 years ago | Pass | ||
Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value
| EPSmg | $6.19 |
| MG Growth Estimate | 15.00% |
| MG Value | $238.39 |
| Opinion | Undervalued |
| MG Grade | C- |
| MG Value based on 3% Growth | $89.78 |
| MG Value based on 0% Growth | $52.63 |
| Market Implied Growth Rate | 2.86% |
| Current Price | $88.00 |
| % of Intrinsic Value | 36.91% |
Celgene Corporation does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the poor dividend history, and the high PB ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the net current assets, and the lack of dividends. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.
As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.94 in 2015 to an estimated $6.19 for 2019. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 2.86% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.
At the time of valuation, further research into Celgene Corporation revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $45.81. The company does not pay a dividend. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 14.21, which was below the industry average of 47.6, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-28.36.
Celgene Corporation receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C-.
Stage 3: Information for Further Research
| Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) | -$28.36 |
| Graham Number | $45.81 |
| PEmg | 14.21 |
| Current Ratio | 2.23 |
| PB Ratio | 10.20 |
| Current Dividend | $0.00 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth | 0 |
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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures
| Balance Sheet Information | 12/1/2018 |
| Total Current Assets | $9,067,000,000 |
| Total Current Liabilities | $4,057,000,000 |
| Long-Term Debt | $19,769,000,000 |
| Total Assets | $35,480,000,000 |
| Intangible Assets | $24,216,000,000 |
| Total Liabilities | $29,319,000,000 |
| Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) | 714,000,000 |
Earnings Per Share History
| EPS History | |
| Next Fiscal Year Estimate | $10.60 |
| Dec2018 | $5.51 |
| Dec2017 | $3.64 |
| Dec2016 | $2.49 |
| Dec2015 | $1.94 |
| Dec2014 | $2.39 |
| Dec2013 | $1.68 |
| Dec2012 | $1.65 |
| Dec2011 | $1.43 |
| Dec2010 | $0.94 |
| Dec2009 | $0.83 |
| Dec2008 | -$1.73 |
| Dec2007 | $0.27 |
| Dec2006 | $0.09 |
| Dec2005 | $0.09 |
| Dec2004 | $0.08 |
| Dec2003 | $0.04 |
| Dec2002 | -$0.15 |
| Dec2001 | $0.00 |
| Dec2000 | -$0.03 |
| Dec1999 | -$0.05 |
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History
| EPSmg History | |
| Next Fiscal Year Estimate | $6.19 |
| Dec2018 | $3.72 |
| Dec2017 | $2.70 |
| Dec2016 | $2.16 |
| Dec2015 | $1.94 |
| Dec2014 | $1.83 |
| Dec2013 | $1.47 |
| Dec2012 | $1.11 |
| Dec2011 | $0.68 |
| Dec2010 | $0.23 |
| Dec2009 | -$0.11 |
| Dec2008 | -$0.47 |
| Dec2007 | $0.14 |
| Dec2006 | $0.06 |
| Dec2005 | $0.04 |
| Dec2004 | $0.00 |
| Dec2003 | -$0.03 |
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Disclaimer:
The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.
