Restaurants Stocks

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc Valuation – March 2019 #CMG

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (Chipotle), incorporated on January 30, 1998, together with its subsidiaries, operates Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants. The Company’s Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants serve a menu of burritos, tacos, burrito bowls (a burrito without the tortilla) and salads. As of December 31, 2016, the Company managed its operations and restaurants based on 11 regions. As of December 31, 2016, the Company operated 2,198 Chipotle restaurants throughout the United States, as well as 29 international Chipotle restaurants, and it also had 23 restaurants in operation in other non-Chipotle concepts. As of December 31, 2016, 29 of its restaurants were located outside of the United States, with 17 in Canada, six in the United Kingdom, five in France and one in Frankfurt, Germany. The Company sells gift cards, which do not have an expiration date.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of CMG – March 2019

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $18,600,677,500 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.81 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 11.30% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 87.26 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 13.05 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.81 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.00 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Fail
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $7.71
MG Growth Estimate -4.25%
MG Value $0.00
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade F
MG Value based on 3% Growth $111.83
MG Value based on 0% Growth $65.56
Market Implied Growth Rate 39.38%
Current Price $672.98
% of Intrinsic Value N/A

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the lack of earnings growth over the last five years, and the lack of dividends. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $12.51 in 2015 to an estimated $7.71 for 2019. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 39.38% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $113.79. The company does not pay a dividend. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 87.26, which was above the industry average of 33.53. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-0.34.

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of F.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$0.34
Graham Number $113.79
PEmg 87.26
Current Ratio 1.81
PB Ratio 13.05
Current Dividend $0.00
Dividend Yield 0.00%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2018
Total Current Assets $814,794,000
Total Current Liabilities $449,990,000
Long-Term Debt $0
Total Assets $2,265,518,000
Intangible Assets $21,939,000
Total Liabilities $824,179,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 27,947,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $11.06
Dec2018 $6.31
Dec2017 $6.17
Dec2016 $0.77
Dec2015 $15.10
Dec2014 $14.13
Dec2013 $10.47
Dec2012 $8.75
Dec2011 $6.76
Dec2010 $5.64
Dec2009 $3.95
Dec2008 $2.36
Dec2007 $2.13
Dec2006 $1.28
Dec2005 $1.43
Dec2004 $0.24
Dec2003 -$0.34
Dec2002 -$0.87
Dec2001 -$1.49

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $7.71
Dec2018 $6.86
Dec2017 $7.86
Dec2016 $9.09
Dec2015 $12.51
Dec2014 $10.53
Dec2013 $8.19
Dec2012 $6.53
Dec2011 $5.00
Dec2010 $3.77
Dec2009 $2.64
Dec2008 $1.82
Dec2007 $1.35
Dec2006 $0.75
Dec2005 $0.26
Dec2004 -$0.38
Dec2003 -$0.64

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc Valuation – June 2018 $CMG
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc Valuation – March 2017 $CMG
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc Valuation – August 2016 $CMG
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc Stock Valuation – February 2016 $CMG
Chipotle Mexican Group Inc Valuation – November 2015 Update $CMG

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McDonald’s Corp Valuation – November 2018 $MCD
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Jack in the Box Inc Valuation – July 2018 $JACK
Chuy’s Holdings Inc Valuation – July 2018 $CHUY
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc Valuation – June 2018 $CMG
Darden Restaurants Inc Valuation – May 2018 $DRI
Yum Brands Inc Valuation – April 2018 $YUM

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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