Children's Products Stocks

Mattel Inc Valuation – March 2019 #MAT

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Mattel, Inc., incorporated on March 6, 1968, designs, manufactures, and markets a range of toy products around the world, which are sold to its customers and directly to consumers. The Company’s segments are North America, which consists of the United States and Canada; International, and American Girl. The Company’s portfolio of brands and products are grouped into approximately four brand categories, including Mattel Girls & Boys Brands, Fisher-Price Brands, American Girl Brands, and Construction and Arts & Crafts Brands.

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of MAT – March 2019

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $4,472,878,134 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.88 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -182.75% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 -12.70 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 6.69 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.88 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 2.59 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Fail
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg -$1.02
MG Growth Estimate -4.25%
MG Value $0.00
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade D
MG Value based on 3% Growth -$14.79
MG Value based on 0% Growth -$8.67
Market Implied Growth Rate -10.60%
Current Price $12.95
% of Intrinsic Value N/A

Mattel Inc does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the net current assets, and the lack of earnings stability or growth over the last five years, and the lack of dividends. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $1.7 in 2015 to an estimated $-1.02 for 2019. This level of negative earnings does not support a positive valuation.As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Mattel Inc revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $0. The company does not pay a dividend. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was -12.7, which was below the industry average of 28.42, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-6.43.

Mattel Inc scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$6.43
Graham Number $0.00
PEmg -12.70
Current Ratio 1.88
PB Ratio 6.69
Current Dividend $0.00
Dividend Yield 0.00%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2018
Total Current Assets $2,352,440,000
Total Current Liabilities $1,252,608,000
Long-Term Debt $2,851,723,000
Total Assets $5,243,465,000
Intangible Assets $1,973,952,000
Total Liabilities $4,574,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 345,726,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate -$0.57
Dec2018 -$1.54
Dec2017 -$3.07
Dec2016 $0.92
Dec2015 $1.08
Dec2014 $1.45
Dec2013 $2.58
Dec2012 $2.22
Dec2011 $2.18
Dec2010 $1.86
Dec2009 $1.45
Dec2008 $1.05
Dec2007 $1.54
Dec2006 $1.53
Dec2005 $1.01
Dec2004 $1.35
Dec2003 $1.22
Dec2002 $0.52
Dec2001 $0.68
Dec2000 -$1.01
Dec1999 -$0.21

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate -$1.02
Dec2018 -$0.91
Dec2017 -$0.20
Dec2016 $1.38
Dec2015 $1.70
Dec2014 $2.03
Dec2013 $2.23
Dec2012 $1.96
Dec2011 $1.76
Dec2010 $1.52
Dec2009 $1.34
Dec2008 $1.29
Dec2007 $1.38
Dec2006 $1.25
Dec2005 $1.06
Dec2004 $0.90
Dec2003 $0.53

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Mattel Inc Valuation – June 2018 $MAT
Mattel Inc. Valuation – June 2017 $MAT
Mattel Inc Valuation – January 2016 Update $MAT
Mattel Inc. Analysis – September 2015 Update $MAT
30 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 5/23/15

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Hasbro Inc Valuation – January 2019 $HAS
Electronic Arts Inc Valuation – November 2018 $EA
Activision Blizzard Inc Valuation – June 2018 $ATVI
Mattel Inc Valuation – June 2018 $MAT
Hasbro Inc Valuation – March 2018 $HAS
Electronic Arts Inc Valuation – February 2018 $EA
Mattel Inc. Valuation – June 2017 $MAT
Hasbro Inc Valuation – July 2016 $HAS
Electronic Arts Inc Valuation – May 2016 $EA
Mattel Inc Valuation – January 2016 Update $MAT

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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