Restaurants Stocks

McDonald’s Corp Valuation – April 2019 #MCD

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): McDonald’s Corporation (McDonald’s), incorporated on December 21, 1964, operates and franchises McDonald’s restaurants. The Company’s restaurants serve a locally relevant menu of food and drinks sold at various price points in over 100 countries. The Company’s segments include U.S., International Lead Markets, High Growth Markets and Foundational Markets and Corporate. McDonald’s franchised restaurants are owned and operated under various structures, including conventional franchise, developmental license or affiliate. The Company is primarily a franchisor. Under a conventional franchise arrangement, the Company owns the land and building or secures a long-term lease for the restaurant location and the franchisee pays for equipment, signs, seating and decor.

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of MCD – April 2019

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $145,486,766,371 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.36 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 43.92% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 27.19 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 -23.60 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.36 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 28.78 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $6.99
MG Growth Estimate 5.72%
MG Value $139.32
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade C
MG Value based on 3% Growth $101.36
MG Value based on 0% Growth $59.42
Market Implied Growth Rate 9.35%
Current Price $190.08
% of Intrinsic Value 136.43%

Mcdonald’s Corp does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $5.06 in 2015 to an estimated $6.99 for 2019. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 9.35% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Mcdonald’s Corp revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $0. The company pays a dividend of $4.19 per share, for a yield of 2.2%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 27.19, which was below the industry average of 34.9, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-45.07.

Mcdonald’s Corp receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$45.07
Graham Number $0.00
PEmg 27.19
Current Ratio 1.36
PB Ratio -23.60
Current Dividend $4.19
Dividend Yield 2.20%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 20

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2018
Total Current Assets $4,053,200,000
Total Current Liabilities $2,973,500,000
Long-Term Debt $31,075,300,000
Total Assets $32,811,200,000
Intangible Assets $2,331,500,000
Total Liabilities $39,069,600,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 776,900,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $7.98
Dec2018 $7.54
Dec2017 $6.37
Dec2016 $5.44
Dec2015 $4.80
Dec2014 $4.82
Dec2013 $5.55
Dec2012 $5.36
Dec2011 $5.27
Dec2010 $4.58
Dec2009 $4.11
Dec2008 $3.76
Dec2007 $1.98
Dec2006 $2.83
Dec2005 $2.04
Dec2004 $1.79
Dec2003 $1.15
Dec2002 $0.70
Dec2001 $1.25
Dec2000 $1.46
Dec1999 $1.39

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $6.99
Dec2018 $6.26
Dec2017 $5.55
Dec2016 $5.15
Dec2015 $5.06
Dec2014 $5.17
Dec2013 $5.22
Dec2012 $4.91
Dec2011 $4.43
Dec2010 $3.83
Dec2009 $3.28
Dec2008 $2.74
Dec2007 $2.14
Dec2006 $2.05
Dec2005 $1.56
Dec2004 $1.31
Dec2003 $1.11

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

McDonald’s Corp Valuation – November 2018 $MCD
McDonald’s Corporation Valuation – February 2018 $MCD
5 Overvalued Dow Components – December 2016
McDonald’s Corp Valuation – November 2016 $MCD
5 Overvalued Dow Components – July 2016

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

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Yum Brands Inc Valuation – February 2019 $YUM
Starbucks Corporation Valuation – January 2019 $SBUX
McDonald’s Corp Valuation – November 2018 $MCD
Sonic Corp Valuation – August 2018 $SONC
Jack in the Box Inc Valuation – July 2018 $JACK
Chuy’s Holdings Inc Valuation – July 2018 $CHUY
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc Valuation – June 2018 $CMG
Darden Restaurants Inc Valuation – May 2018 $DRI

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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