Mohawk Industries Inc Valuation – March 2019 #MHK

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Mohawk Industries, Inc., incorporated on December 22, 1988, is a flooring manufacturer that creates products for residential and commercial spaces around the world. The Company operates in three segments: Global Ceramic, Flooring North America (Flooring NA) and Flooring Rest of the World (Flooring ROW). The Company’s manufacturing and distribution processes provide carpet, rugs, ceramic tile, laminate, wood, stone, luxury vinyl tile (LVT) and vinyl flooring. The Company has operations in Australia, Brazil, Canada, Europe, India, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Russia and the United States.

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of MHK – March 2019

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $9,606,383,941 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.38 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 294.08% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 11.80 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.32 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.38 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 1.22 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Fail
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $11.26
MG Growth Estimate 11.73%
MG Value $359.73
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade C+
MG Value based on 3% Growth $163.21
MG Value based on 0% Growth $95.68
Market Implied Growth Rate 1.65%
Current Price $132.85
% of Intrinsic Value 36.93%

Mohawk Industries, Inc. does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, poor dividend history. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets, and the lack of dividends. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $6.32 in 2015 to an estimated $11.26 for 2019. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 1.65% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Mohawk Industries, Inc. revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $151.26. The company does not pay a dividend. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 11.8, which was below the industry average of 20.99, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-15.5.

Mohawk Industries, Inc. receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C+.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$15.50
Graham Number $151.26
PEmg 11.80
Current Ratio 1.38
PB Ratio 1.32
Current Dividend $0.00
Dividend Yield 0.00%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2018
Total Current Assets $4,509,296,000
Total Current Liabilities $3,266,239,000
Long-Term Debt $1,515,601,000
Total Assets $13,099,123,000
Intangible Assets $3,482,776,000
Total Liabilities $5,659,064,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 74,161,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $10.15
Dec2018 $11.47
Dec2017 $12.98
Dec2016 $12.48
Dec2015 $8.31
Dec2014 $7.25
Dec2013 $4.82
Dec2012 $3.61
Dec2011 $2.52
Dec2010 $2.65
Dec2009 -$0.08
Dec2008 -$21.32
Dec2007 $10.32
Dec2006 $6.70
Dec2005 $5.72
Dec2004 $5.49
Dec2003 $4.62
Dec2002 $4.39
Dec2001 $3.55
Dec2000 $3.00
Dec1999 $2.61

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $11.26
Dec2018 $11.37
Dec2017 $10.60
Dec2016 $8.71
Dec2015 $6.32
Dec2014 $4.94
Dec2013 $3.42
Dec2012 $0.97
Dec2011 -$0.62
Dec2010 -$1.58
Dec2009 -$2.37
Dec2008 -$1.89
Dec2007 $7.41
Dec2006 $5.77
Dec2005 $5.12
Dec2004 $4.61
Dec2003 $3.99

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

10 Undervalued Stocks for the Enterprising Investor – January 2019
Most Undervalued Stocks of the S&P 500 – August 2018
Mohawk Industries Inc Valuation – May 2018 $MHK
Mohawk Industries Inc Valuation – February 2017 $MHK
Mohawk Industries Inc. Analysis – October 2015 Update $MHK

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Jacobs Engineering Group Inc Valuation – March 2019 #JEC
Masco Corp Valuation – February 2019 $MAS
D.R. Horton Inc Valuation – February 2019 $DHI
Martin Marietta Materials Inc Valuation – February 2019 $MLM
Fluor Corp Valuation – February 2019 $FLR
Lennar Corp Valuation – February 2019 $LEN
Vulcan Materials Co Valuation – February 2019 $VMC
PulteGroup Inc Valuation – January 2019 $PHM
Sherwin-Williams Co Valuation – January 2019 $SHW
Johnson Controls International PC Valuation – January 2019 $JCI

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Mohawk Industries Inc Valuation – May 2018 $MHK

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Mohawk Industries, Inc., incorporated on December 22, 1988, is a flooring manufacturer that creates products for residential and commercial spaces around the world. The Company operates in three segments: Global Ceramic, Flooring North America (Flooring NA) and Flooring Rest of the World (Flooring ROW). The Company’s manufacturing and distribution processes provide carpet, rugs, ceramic tile, laminate, wood, stone, luxury vinyl tile (LVT) and vinyl flooring. The Company has operations in Australia, Brazil, Canada, Europe, India, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Russia and the United States.

MHK Chart

MHK data by YCharts

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of MHK – May 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $15,582,922,189 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.54 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 698.82% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 16.56 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 2.13 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.54 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 1.06 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Fail
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $12.62
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $485.69
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade B-
MG Value based on 3% Growth $182.92
MG Value based on 0% Growth $107.23
Market Implied Growth Rate 4.03%
Current Price $208.89
% of Intrinsic Value 43.01%

Mohawk Industries, Inc. is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the lack of dividends. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $4.94 in 2014 to an estimated $12.62 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 4.03% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Mohawk Industries, Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $180.11. The company does not pay a dividend. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 16.56, which was below the industry average of 26.36, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-12.35.

Mohawk Industries, Inc. performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B-.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$12.35
Graham Number $180.11
PEmg 16.56
Current Ratio 1.54
PB Ratio 2.13
Current Dividend $0.00
Dividend Yield 0.00%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 3/1/2018
Total Current Assets $4,297,039,000
Total Current Liabilities $2,795,910,000
Long-Term Debt $1,585,651,000
Total Assets $12,560,372,000
Intangible Assets $3,412,604,000
Total Liabilities $5,222,429,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 74,929,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $15.20
Dec2017 $12.98
Dec2016 $12.48
Dec2015 $8.31
Dec2014 $7.25
Dec2013 $4.82
Dec2012 $3.61
Dec2011 $2.52
Dec2010 $2.65
Dec2009 -$0.08
Dec2008 -$21.32
Dec2007 $10.32
Dec2006 $6.70
Dec2005 $5.72
Dec2004 $5.49
Dec2003 $4.62
Dec2002 $4.39
Dec2001 $3.55
Dec2000 $3.00
Dec1999 $2.61
Dec1998 $1.89

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $12.62
Dec2017 $10.60
Dec2016 $8.71
Dec2015 $6.32
Dec2014 $4.94
Dec2013 $3.42
Dec2012 $0.97
Dec2011 -$0.62
Dec2010 -$1.58
Dec2009 -$2.37
Dec2008 -$1.89
Dec2007 $7.41
Dec2006 $5.77
Dec2005 $5.12
Dec2004 $4.61
Dec2003 $3.99
Dec2002 $3.48

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Mohawk Industries Inc Valuation – February 2017 $MHK
Mohawk Industries Inc. Analysis – October 2015 Update $MHK
14 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 1/25/14
Mohawk Industries (MHK) Annual Valuation

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Jacobs Engineering Group Inc Valuation – May 2018 $JEC
Masco Corp Valuation – May 2018 $MAS
D.R. Horton Inc Valuation – May 2018 $DHI
Martin Marietta Materials Inc Valuation – May 2018 $MLM
Fluor Corporation Valuation – April 2018 $FLR
Lennar Corp Valuation – April 2018 $LEN
Vulcan Materials Co Valuation – April 2018 $VMC
PulteGroup Inc Valuation – March 2018 $PHM
Sherwin-Williams Co Valuation – March 2018 $SHW
Cummins Inc Valuation – March 2018 $CMI

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Mohawk Industries Inc Valuation – February 2017 $MHK

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – January 2017.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Mohawk Industries Inc (MHK) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Mohawk Industries, Inc. is a flooring manufacturer that creates products for residential and commercial spaces around the world. The Company’s manufacturing and distribution processes provide carpet, rugs, ceramic tile, laminate, wood, stone, luxury vinyl tile (LVT) and vinyl flooring. It operates in three segments: Global Ceramic, which designs, manufactures, sources, distributes and markets a line of ceramic tile, porcelain tile and natural stone products; Flooring North America (Flooring NA), which designs, manufactures, sources, distributes and markets carpet, laminate, carpet pad, rugs, hardwood and vinyl, including LVT, in a range of colors, textures and patterns, and Flooring Rest of the World (Flooring ROW), which designs, manufactures, sources, distributes and markets laminate, hardwood flooring, roofing elements, insulation boards, medium-density fiberboard, chipboards and vinyl flooring products. Its trademarks include American Olean, Bigelow, Lees, Quick-Step and Unilin.

MHK Chart

MHK data by YCharts

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To read the details of this valuation, you must be logged in as a premium member. If you are not a premium member, please consider becoming one.

Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Recent valuations of the components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average are available for free members, including this one of Microsoft Corporation.  In addition, here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.

[/level-free]
[not-level-free]

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of MHK – February 2017

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $15,927,144,677 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.20 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -353.25% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 24.71 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 2.84 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.20 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 1.97 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Fail
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $8.72
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $335.57
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade C-
MG Value based on 3% Growth $126.38
MG Value based on 0% Growth $74.09
Market Implied Growth Rate 8.11%
Current Price $215.39
% of Intrinsic Value 64.19%

Mohawk Industries, Inc. does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, the poor dividend history, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets, and the lack of dividends. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $0.97 in 2012 to an estimated $8.72 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 8.11% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Mohawk Industries, Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $146.59. The company does not pay a dividend. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 24.71, which was below the industry average of 28.49, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-15.8.

Mohawk Industries, Inc. receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C-.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$15.80
Graham Number $146.59
PEmg 24.71
Current Ratio 1.20
PB Ratio 2.84
Current Dividend $0.00
Dividend Yield 0.00%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

[/not-level-free]

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 9/1/2016
Total Current Assets $3,576,314,000
Total Current Liabilities $2,983,320,000
Long-Term Debt $1,165,577,000
Total Assets $10,420,593,000
Intangible Assets $3,208,536,000
Total Liabilities $4,755,151,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 74,613,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $12.50
Dec2015 $8.31
Dec2014 $7.25
Dec2013 $4.82
Dec2012 $3.61
Dec2011 $2.52
Dec2010 $2.65
Dec2009 -$0.08
Dec2008 -$21.32
Dec2007 $10.32
Dec2006 $6.70
Dec2005 $5.72
Dec2004 $5.49
Dec2003 $4.62
Dec2002 $4.39
Dec2001 $3.55
Dec2000 $3.00
Dec1999 $2.61
Dec1998 $1.89
Dec1997 $1.32
Dec1996 $0.95

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $8.72
Dec2015 $6.32
Dec2014 $4.94
Dec2013 $3.42
Dec2012 $0.97
Dec2011 -$0.62
Dec2010 -$1.58
Dec2009 -$2.37
Dec2008 -$1.89
Dec2007 $7.41
Dec2006 $5.77
Dec2005 $5.12
Dec2004 $4.61
Dec2003 $3.99
Dec2002 $3.48
Dec2001 $2.85
Dec2000 $2.31

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Mohawk Industries Inc. Analysis – October 2015 Update $MHK
14 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 1/25/14
Mohawk Industries (MHK) Annual Valuation

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Quanta Services Inc Valuation – August 2016 $PWR
Jacobs Engineering Group Inc Valuation – August 2016 $JEC
PPG Industries Inc Valuation – August 2016 $PPG
D.R. Horton Inc Valuation – August 2016 $DHI
Martin Marietta Materials Inc Valuation – August 2016 $MLM
Fluor Corporation Valuation – August 2016 $FLR
Vulcan Materials Co Valuation – July 2016 $VMC
PulteGroup Inc Valuation – July 2016 $PHM
Sherwin-Williams Co Valuation – July 2016 $SHW
Cummins Inc Valuation – July 2016 $CMI

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Mohawk Industries Inc. Analysis – October 2015 Update $MHK

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – September 2015.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Mohawk Industries Inc. (MHK) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Mohawk Industries, Inc. is a flooring manufacturer that creates products for residential and commercial spaces around the world. The Company operates in three segments: the Carpet segment, the Ceramic segment, and the Laminate and Wood segment. The Carpet segment designs, manufactures, sources, distributes and markets its carpet and rug product lines in a range of colors, textures and patterns for residential and commercial applications. The Ceramic segment designs, manufactures, sources, distributes and markets a line of ceramic tile, porcelain tile and natural stone products. The Laminate and Wood segment designs, manufactures, sources, licenses, distributes and markets laminate and hardwood flooring. Its manufacturing and distribution processes provide carpet, rugs, ceramic tile, laminate, wood, stone and vinyl flooring. Its brands include American Olean, Bigelow, Daltile, Durkan, Karastan, Kerama Marazzi, Lees, Marazzi, Mohawk, Pergo, Quick-Step and Unilin.

[level-free]

To read the details of this valuation, you must be logged in as a premium member. If you are not a premium member, please consider becoming one.

Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Here is a free sample valuation pdf, and here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.

[/level-free]
[level-mg-stocks-screens-subscriber]

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of MHK – October 2015

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $13,910,261,039 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.20 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -576.94% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 30.61 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 3.08 Fail
Score
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.20 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 2.93 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Fail
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

MHK value Chart October 2015

EPSmg $6.28
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $241.78
Opinion Fairly Valued
MG Value based on 3% Growth $91.06
MG Value based on 0% Growth $53.38
Market Implied Growth Rate 11.05%
Current Price $192.22
% of Intrinsic Value 79.50%

Mohawk Industries Inc. does not qualify for either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, lack of dividends, and the high PEmg and PB ratios.  The Enterprising Investor is concerned by the level of debt relative to the current assets and the lack of dividends.  As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed with a cautious speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be fairly valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from a loss of $0.62 in 2011 to an estimated gain of $6.28 for 2015.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 11.05% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value within a margin of safety relative to the price.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Mohawk Industries Inc. (MHK)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

MHK Charts October 2015

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$26.42
Graham Number $107.86
PEmg 30.61
Current Ratio 1.20
PB Ratio 3.08
Dividend Yield 0.00%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

 

[/level-mg-stocks-screens-subscriber]

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Total Current Assets $3,608,622,000
Total Current Liabilities $3,001,531,000
Long-Term Debt $1,777,828,000
Total Assets $10,165,670,000
Intangible Assets $3,225,510,000
Total Liabilities $5,557,436,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 73,756,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $8.20
Dec14 $7.25
Dec13 $4.82
Dec12 $3.61
Dec11 $2.52
Dec10 $2.65
Dec09 -$0.08
Dec08 -$21.32
Dec07 $10.37
Dec06 $6.70
Dec05 $5.72
Dec04 $5.49
Dec03 $4.62
Dec02 $4.39
Dec01 $3.55
Dec00 $3.00
Dec99 $2.61
Dec98 $1.89
Dec97 $1.32
Dec96 $0.95
Dec95 $0.13

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $6.28
Dec14 $4.94
Dec13 $3.42
Dec12 $0.97
Dec11 -$0.62
Dec10 -$1.57
Dec09 -$2.36
Dec08 -$1.87
Dec07 $7.43
Dec06 $5.77
Dec05 $5.12
Dec04 $4.61
Dec03 $3.99
Dec02 $3.48
Dec01 $2.85
Dec00 $2.31
Dec99 $1.77

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

14 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 1/25/14
Mohawk Industries (MHK) Annual Valuation

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

PulteGroup Inc. Analysis – October 2015 Update $PHM
Masco Corporation Analysis – September 2015 Update $MAS
Flowserve Corporation Analysis – August 2015 Update $FLS
Alexander & Baldwin Inc Analysis – Initial Coverage $ALEX
Lennar Corporation Analysis – August 2015 Update $LEN
Aecom Analysis – Initial Coverage $ACM
Quanta Services Inc. Analysis – July 2015 Update $PWR
Fluor Corporation Analysis – July 2015 Update $FLR
Martin Marietta Materials Inc. Analysis – Initial Coverage $MLM
D.R. Horton Inc. Analysis – July 2015 Update $DHI

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Mohawk Industries (MHK) Annual Valuation

moneyCompany Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Mohawk Industries, Inc. (Mohawk) is a producer of floor covering products for residential and commercial applications in the United States and residential applications in Europe. The Company is a carpet and rug manufacturer and manufacturers, marketers and distributors of ceramic tile, natural stone and hardwood flooring in the United States, as well as a producer of laminate flooring in the United States and Europe. The Company has three reporting segments: the Mohawk segment, the Dal-Tile segment and the Unilin segment. The Company has recently expanded its international presence through investments in Australia, Brazil, China, France, Mexico and Russia. In January 2013, the Company acquired Pergo. In April 2013, it completed the acquisition of the Marazzi Group. In May 2013, the Company acquired Spano Group.

Defensive and Enterprising Investor Tests (What is the significance of these tests, and what is PEmg ratio?):

Defensive Investor – must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 3/7

  1. Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion – PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – current ratio greater than 2 – PASS
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years – FAIL
  4. Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years – FAIL
  5. Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period – FAIL
  6. Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 – FAIL
  7. Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 – PASS

Enterprising Investor – must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 2/5

  1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – current ratio greater than 1.5 – PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 – FAIL
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years – FAIL
  4. Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend – FAIL
  5. Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago – PASS

Valuation Summary (Explanation of the ModernGraham Valuation Model)

Key Data:

MG Value $137.24
MG Opinion Fairly Valued
Value Based on 3% Growth $51.69
Value Based on 0% Growth $30.30
Market Implied Growth Rate 16.34%
Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$14.48
PEmg 41.17
Current Ratio 2.30
PB Ratio 2.46

Balance Sheet – 9/30/2013 

Current Assets $3,188,500,000
Current Liabilities $1,385,200,000
Total Debt $2,257,400,000
Total Assets $8,564,200,000
Intangible Assets $2,525,000,000
Total Liabilities $4,239,700,000
Outstanding Shares 72,620,000

Earnings Per Share

2013 (estimate) $5.23
2012 $3.61
2011 $2.52
2010 $2.70
2009 -$0.08
2008 -$21.32
2007 $10.32
2006 $6.70
2005 $5.30
2004 $5.46
2003 $4.62

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham 

2013 (estimate) $3.56
2012 $0.98
2011 -$0.61
2010 -$1.56
2009 -$2.40
2008 -$1.94

Conclusion:

Mohawk Industries has seen some rapid growth over the last few years, but it does not qualify for either the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor.  The company’s earnings have lacked stability over the last 5-10 years, it does not pay a dividend, and it is trading at a high PEmg ratio.  As a result, value investors seeking to follow Benjamin Graham’s methods should review other opportunities, while keeping in mind the 7 Key Tips to Value Investing.  As for a valuation, the company has achieved a substantial level of growth over the last 5 years, having risen EPSmg (normalized earnings) from -$2.40 in 2009 to an estimated $3.56 for 2013.  This level of growth provides some support to the market’s implied estimate for growth of 16.34%, and the company therefore appears to be fairly valued at the present time.

What do you think?  What value would you put on Mohawk Industries (MHK)?  Is the company not suitable for Defensive Investors or Enterprising Investors?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

If you like our valuations, why not check out ModernGraham Stocks & Screens?  It’s a great way to review the valuations while screening for things like low PE ratio, undervalued companies, etc.!

Disclaimer:  The author did not hold a position in Mohawk Industries (MHK) or any of the other companies listed in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.

Photo Credit:  Andrew Magill

Home Depot Inc Valuation – April 2019 #HD

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): The Home Depot, Inc. (The Home Depot), incorporated on June 29, 1978, is a home improvement retailer. The Company sells an assortment of building materials, home improvement products, and lawn and garden products, and provides various services. The Home Depot stores averaged approximately 104,000 square feet of enclosed space, with over 24,000 additional square feet of outside garden area, as of January 29, 2017. The Home Depot stores serve three primary customer groups: do-it-yourself (DIY) customers, do-it-for-me (DIFM) customers and professional customers. The Company had approximately 2,278 stores located throughout the United States, including the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and the territories of the United States Virgin Islands and Guam, Canada and Mexico, as of January 29, 2017.

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of HD – April 2019

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $223,054,839,544 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.11 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 257.09% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 23.75 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 -120.72 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.11 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 14.79 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $8.51
MG Growth Estimate 14.05%
MG Value $311.32
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade C-
MG Value based on 3% Growth $123.35
MG Value based on 0% Growth $72.31
Market Implied Growth Rate 7.63%
Current Price $202.06
% of Intrinsic Value 64.90%

Home Depot Inc does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $4.39 in 2016 to an estimated $8.51 for 2020. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 7.63% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Home Depot Inc revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $0. The company pays a dividend of $4.12 per share, for a yield of 2% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 23.75, which was above the industry average of 21.52. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-24.38.

Home Depot Inc receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C-.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$24.38
Graham Number $0.00
PEmg 23.75
Current Ratio 1.11
PB Ratio -120.72
Current Dividend $4.12
Dividend Yield 2.04%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 9

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 1/1/2019
Total Current Assets $18,529,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $16,716,000,000
Long-Term Debt $26,807,000,000
Total Assets $44,003,000,000
Intangible Assets $2,252,000,000
Total Liabilities $45,881,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 1,122,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $9.69
Jan2019 $9.73
Jan2018 $7.29
Jan2017 $6.45
Jan2016 $5.46
Jan2015 $4.71
Jan2014 $3.76
Jan2013 $3.00
Jan2012 $2.47
Jan2011 $2.01
Jan2010 $1.57
Jan2009 $1.34
Jan2008 $2.37
Jan2007 $2.79
Jan2006 $2.72
Jan2005 $2.26
Jan2004 $1.88
Jan2003 $1.56
Jan2002 $1.29
Jan2001 $1.10
Jan2000 $1.00

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $8.51
Jan2019 $7.52
Jan2018 $6.12
Jan2017 $5.25
Jan2016 $4.39
Jan2015 $3.64
Jan2014 $2.92
Jan2013 $2.36
Jan2012 $2.01
Jan2011 $1.86
Jan2010 $1.91
Jan2009 $2.15
Jan2008 $2.50
Jan2007 $2.46
Jan2006 $2.18
Jan2005 $1.81
Jan2004 $1.51

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Home Depot Inc Valuation – November 2018 $HD
Home Depot Inc Valuation – February 2018 $HD
Home Depot Inc Valuation – February 2017 $HD
Home Depot Inc. Valuation – November 2015 Update $HD
30 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 11/15/14

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Lowe’s Companies Inc Valuation – March 2019 #LOW
Quanta Services Inc Valuation – March 2019 #PWR
Mohawk Industries Inc Valuation – March 2019 #MHK
Jacobs Engineering Group Inc Valuation – March 2019 #JEC
Masco Corp Valuation – February 2019 $MAS
D.R. Horton Inc Valuation – February 2019 $DHI
Martin Marietta Materials Inc Valuation – February 2019 $MLM
Fluor Corp Valuation – February 2019 $FLR
Lennar Corp Valuation – February 2019 $LEN
Vulcan Materials Co Valuation – February 2019 $VMC

Disclaimer:

The author held a long position in HD but did not hold a position in any other company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Lowe’s Companies Inc Valuation – March 2019 #LOW

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Lowe’s Companies, Inc. (Lowe’s), incorporated on August 1, 1952, is a home improvement company. The Company operates approximately 2,370 home improvement and hardware stores. The Company offers a range of products for maintenance, repair, remodeling and decorating. The Company offers home improvement products in categories, including Lumber and Building Materials; Tools and Hardware; Appliances; Fashion Fixtures; Rough Plumbing and Electrical; Lawn and Garden; Seasonal and Outdoor Living; Paint; Flooring; Millwork, and Kitchens. The Company also supports the communities that focus on K-12 public education and community improvement projects. The Company serves its customers in the United States, Canada and Mexico.

LOW Chart

LOW data by YCharts

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of LOW – March 2019

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $84,769,831,466 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 0.98 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 184.80% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 25.07 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 23.25 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 0.98 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 -53.50 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $4.22
MG Growth Estimate 11.58%
MG Value $133.62
Opinion Fairly Valued
MG Grade C-
MG Value based on 3% Growth $61.19
MG Value based on 0% Growth $35.87
Market Implied Growth Rate 8.28%
Current Price $105.79
% of Intrinsic Value 79.17%

Lowe’s Companies, Inc. does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Fairly Valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.38 in 2016 to an estimated $4.22 for 2020. This level of demonstrated earnings growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 8.28% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value within a margin of safety relative to the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Lowe’s Companies, Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $24.75. The company pays a dividend of $1.85 per share, for a yield of 1.7% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 25.07, which was above the industry average of 20.99. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-20.77.

Lowe’s Companies, Inc. receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C-.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$20.77
Graham Number $24.75
PEmg 25.07
Current Ratio 0.98
PB Ratio 23.25
Current Dividend $1.85
Dividend Yield 1.75%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 20

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 1/1/2019
Total Current Assets $14,228,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $14,497,000,000
Long-Term Debt $14,391,000,000
Total Assets $34,508,000,000
Intangible Assets $303,000,000
Total Liabilities $30,864,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 801,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $6.00
Jan2019 $2.84
Jan2018 $4.09
Jan2017 $3.47
Jan2016 $2.73
Jan2015 $2.71
Jan2014 $2.14
Jan2013 $1.69
Jan2012 $1.43
Jan2011 $1.42
Jan2010 $1.21
Jan2009 $1.49
Jan2008 $1.86
Jan2007 $1.99
Jan2006 $1.73
Jan2005 $1.35
Jan2004 $1.13
Jan2003 $0.93
Jan2002 $0.65
Jan2001 $0.52
Jan2000 $0.44

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $4.22
Jan2019 $3.28
Jan2018 $3.34
Jan2017 $2.82
Jan2016 $2.38
Jan2015 $2.10
Jan2014 $1.72
Jan2013 $1.49
Jan2012 $1.42
Jan2011 $1.47
Jan2010 $1.55
Jan2009 $1.71
Jan2008 $1.75
Jan2007 $1.61
Jan2006 $1.33
Jan2005 $1.06
Jan2004 $0.85

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Best Dividend Paying Stocks for Dividend Growth Investors – February 2019
Best Dividend Paying Stocks for Dividend Growth Investors – August 2018
Best Dividend Paying Stocks for Dividend Growth Investors – June 2018
Lowe’s Companies Inc Valuation – June 2018 $LOW
Lowe’s Companies Inc Valuation – March 2017 $LOW

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Quanta Services Inc Valuation – March 2019 #PWR
Mohawk Industries Inc Valuation – March 2019 #MHK
Jacobs Engineering Group Inc Valuation – March 2019 #JEC
Masco Corp Valuation – February 2019 $MAS
D.R. Horton Inc Valuation – February 2019 $DHI
Martin Marietta Materials Inc Valuation – February 2019 $MLM
Fluor Corp Valuation – February 2019 $FLR
Lennar Corp Valuation – February 2019 $LEN
Vulcan Materials Co Valuation – February 2019 $VMC
PulteGroup Inc Valuation – January 2019 $PHM

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Quanta Services Inc Valuation – March 2019 #PWR

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Quanta Services, Inc. (Quanta), incorporated on August 19, 1997, is a provider of specialty contracting services, offering infrastructure solutions primarily to the electric power and oil and gas industries in the United States, Canada and Australia, and selected other international markets. The Company operates through two segments: Electric Power Infrastructure Services, and Oil and Gas Infrastructure Services. The services it provides include the design, installation, upgrade, repair and maintenance of infrastructure within each of the industries it serves, such as electric power transmission and distribution networks, substation facilities, renewable energy facilities, pipeline transmission and distribution systems and facilities, and infrastructure services for the offshore and inland water energy markets.

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of PWR – March 2019

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $4,963,069,313 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.84 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 158.99% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 15.34 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.47 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.84 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.68 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $2.28
MG Growth Estimate 7.85%
MG Value $55.18
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade B+
MG Value based on 3% Growth $33.07
MG Value based on 0% Growth $19.39
Market Implied Growth Rate 3.42%
Current Price $34.99
% of Intrinsic Value 63.41%

Quanta Services Inc is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, poor dividend history. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.5 in 2015 to an estimated $2.28 for 2019. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 3.42% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Quanta Services Inc revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $41.66. The company pays a dividend of $0.04 per share, for a yield of 0.1% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 15.34, which was below the industry average of 20.99, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-0.95.

Quanta Services Inc performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B+.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$0.95
Graham Number $41.66
PEmg 15.34
Current Ratio 1.84
PB Ratio 1.47
Current Dividend $0.04
Dividend Yield 0.11%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 1

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2018
Total Current Assets $3,326,104,000
Total Current Liabilities $1,806,127,000
Long-Term Debt $1,040,532,000
Total Assets $7,075,787,000
Intangible Assets $2,180,059,000
Total Liabilities $3,470,334,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 151,310,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.30
Dec2018 $1.90
Dec2017 $2.00
Dec2016 $1.26
Dec2015 $1.59
Dec2014 $1.35
Dec2013 $1.87
Dec2012 $1.44
Dec2011 $0.62
Dec2010 $0.72
Dec2009 $0.81
Dec2008 $0.87
Dec2007 $0.89
Dec2006 $0.15
Dec2005 $0.25
Dec2004 -$0.08
Dec2003 -$0.30
Dec2002 -$7.77
Dec2001 $1.10
Dec2000 $1.42
Dec1999 $0.67

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.28
Dec2018 $1.72
Dec2017 $1.63
Dec2016 $1.46
Dec2015 $1.50
Dec2014 $1.37
Dec2013 $1.28
Dec2012 $0.96
Dec2011 $0.74
Dec2010 $0.76
Dec2009 $0.72
Dec2008 $0.59
Dec2007 $0.36
Dec2006 -$0.46
Dec2005 -$0.96
Dec2004 -$1.42
Dec2003 -$1.72

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Quanta Services Inc Valuation – May 2018 $PWR
14 Best Stocks for Value Investors This Week – 2/11/17
Quanta Services Inc Valuation – February 2017 $PWR
15 Best Undervalued Stocks of the Week – 8/20/16
Quanta Services Inc Valuation – August 2016 $PWR

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Mohawk Industries Inc Valuation – March 2019 #MHK
Jacobs Engineering Group Inc Valuation – March 2019 #JEC
Masco Corp Valuation – February 2019 $MAS
D.R. Horton Inc Valuation – February 2019 $DHI
Martin Marietta Materials Inc Valuation – February 2019 $MLM
Fluor Corp Valuation – February 2019 $FLR
Lennar Corp Valuation – February 2019 $LEN
Vulcan Materials Co Valuation – February 2019 $VMC
PulteGroup Inc Valuation – January 2019 $PHM
Sherwin-Williams Co Valuation – January 2019 $SHW

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

10 Undervalued Stocks for the Enterprising Investor – January 2019

Copy of 10 most undervalued enterprisingThere are a number of great companies in the market today. By using the ModernGraham Valuation Model, I’ve selected the ten most undervalued companies reviewed by ModernGraham. Each company has been determined to be suitable for the Enterprising Investor according to the ModernGraham approach.

Defensive Investors are defined as investors who need to select only the companies that present the least amount of risk. Enterprising Investors, on the other hand, are able to do substantial research and can select companies that present a moderate (though still low) amount of risk. Each company suitable for the Defensive Investor is also suitable for Enterprising Investors.

Prudential Financial Inc (PRU)

Prudential Financial Inc is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.17 in 2014 to an estimated $12.54 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 0.45% annual earnings loss over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Prudential Financial Inc revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $185.87. The company pays a dividend of $3 per share, for a yield of 3.1%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 7.6, which was below the industry average of 30.02, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry.  (See the full valuation)

Signet Jewelers Ltd. (SIG)

Signet Jewelers Ltd. is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $3.86 in 2014 to an estimated $6.07 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 0.22% annual earnings loss over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Signet Jewelers Ltd. revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $61.99. The company pays a dividend of $1.04 per share, for a yield of 2.1%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 8.06, which was below the industry average of 30.22, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-3.32.  (See the full valuation)

Synchrony Financial (SYF)

Synchrony Financial is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $0.93 in 2014 to an estimated $2.8 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 2% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Synchrony Financial revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $36.58. The company pays a dividend of $0.56 per share, for a yield of 1.6% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 12.5, which was below the industry average of 22.96, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry.  (See the full valuation)

Lydall, Inc. (LDL)

Lydall, Inc. is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the small size, insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the lack of dividends. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.05 in 2014 to an estimated $2.48 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 4.59% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Lydall, Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $33.93. The company does not pay a dividend. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 17.67, which was below the industry average of 18.51, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $5.29.  (See the full valuation)

LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB)

LyondellBasell Industries NV is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the level of debt relative to the net current assets. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $6.13 in 2014 to an estimated $10.84 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 0.41% annual earnings loss over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into LyondellBasell Industries NV revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $77.64. The company pays a dividend of $3.55 per share, for a yield of 4.3%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 7.68, which was below the industry average of 20.47, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-16.01.  (See the full valuation)

Mohawk Industries, Inc. (MHK)

Mohawk Industries, Inc. is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the lack of dividends. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $4.94 in 2014 to an estimated $12.62 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 4.03% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Mohawk Industries, Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $180.11. The company does not pay a dividend. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 16.56, which was below the industry average of 26.36, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-12.35.  (See the full valuation)

Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN)

Tyson Foods, Inc. is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the level of debt relative to the net current assets. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.13 in 2014 to an estimated $5.52 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 2.07% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Tyson Foods, Inc. revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $73.4. The company pays a dividend of $0.9 per share, for a yield of 1.3% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 12.65, which was below the industry average of 24.35, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-26.88.  (See the full valuation)

Lincoln National Corporation (LNC)

Lincoln National Corporation is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $4.25 in 2014 to an estimated $7.01 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 0.58% annual earnings loss over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Lincoln National Corporation revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $117.31. The company pays a dividend of $0.87 per share, for a yield of 1.7% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 7.33, which was below the industry average of 30.63, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry.  (See the full valuation)

Alliance Data Systems Corporation (ADS)

Alliance Data Systems Corporation is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the poor dividend history, and the high PB ratio. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $6.88 in 2014 to an estimated $14.23 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 3.11% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Alliance Data Systems Corporation revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $128.46. The company pays a dividend of $2.08 per share, for a yield of 1% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 14.72, which was below the industry average of 33.86, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-70.39.  (See the full valuation)

Citizens Financial Group Inc (CFG)

Citizens Financial Group Inc is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $-0.89 in 2014 to an estimated $2.67 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 3.59% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Citizens Financial Group Inc revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $55.04. The company pays a dividend of $0.64 per share, for a yield of 1.5% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 15.67, which was below the industry average of 22.06, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry.  (See the full valuation)

 

Disclaimer: 

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours. See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice and all readers are encouraged to speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investing decisions.  Please also read our full disclaimer.

Simpson Manufacturing Co Inc Valuation – August 2018 $SSD

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc., incorporated on February 23, 1999, through its subsidiary, Simpson Strong-Tie Company Inc. (SST), designs, engineers and manufactures wood construction products, including connectors, truss plates, fastening systems, fasteners and pre-fabricated lateral systems used in light-frame construction. The Company’s segments are North America, Europe, Asia/Pacific, and Administrative & All Other. The North America segment includes operations primarily in the United States and Canada. The Europe segment includes operations primarily in France, the United Kingdom, Germany, Denmark, Switzerland, Portugal, Poland, the Netherlands and Belgium. The Asia/Pacific segment includes operations primarily in Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, China, Taiwan, and Vietnam.

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of SSD – August 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $3,375,258,071 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 3.81 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 257.22% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 34.31 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 3.76 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 3.81 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.00 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $2.12
MG Growth Estimate 14.95%
MG Value $81.39
Opinion Fairly Valued
MG Grade C
MG Value based on 3% Growth $30.73
MG Value based on 0% Growth $18.01
Market Implied Growth Rate 12.90%
Current Price $72.71
% of Intrinsic Value 89.33%

Simpson Manufacturing Co, Inc. is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Fairly Valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.06 in 2014 to an estimated $2.12 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 12.9% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value within a margin of safety relative to the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Simpson Manufacturing Co, Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $35.02. The company pays a dividend of $0.81 per share, for a yield of 1.1% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 34.31, which was above the industry average of 24.98. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $9.81.

Simpson Manufacturing Co, Inc. receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) $9.81
Graham Number $35.02
PEmg 34.31
Current Ratio 3.81
PB Ratio 3.76
Current Dividend $0.81
Dividend Yield 1.11%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 4

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 6/1/2018
Total Current Assets $640,166,000
Total Current Liabilities $167,992,000
Long-Term Debt $0
Total Assets $1,085,887,000
Intangible Assets $163,159,000
Total Liabilities $182,085,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 46,677,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.88
Dec2017 $1.94
Dec2016 $1.86
Dec2015 $1.38
Dec2014 $1.29
Dec2013 $1.05
Dec2012 $0.87
Dec2011 $1.04
Dec2010 $0.58
Dec2009 $0.25
Dec2008 $1.10
Dec2007 $1.40
Dec2006 $2.10
Dec2005 $2.02
Dec2004 $1.67
Dec2003 $1.21
Dec2002 $1.05
Dec2001 $0.82
Dec2000 $0.80
Dec1999 $0.79
Dec1998 $0.65

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.12
Dec2017 $1.66
Dec2016 $1.44
Dec2015 $1.20
Dec2014 $1.06
Dec2013 $0.88
Dec2012 $0.79
Dec2011 $0.79
Dec2010 $0.81
Dec2009 $1.07
Dec2008 $1.54
Dec2007 $1.73
Dec2006 $1.80
Dec2005 $1.55
Dec2004 $1.25
Dec2003 $1.01
Dec2002 $0.88

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

5 Best Stocks for Value Investors This Week – 2/18/17
Simpson Manufacturing Co Valuation – February 2017 $SSD

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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