Martin Marietta Materials Inc Valuation – February 2019 $MLM

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Martin Marietta Materials, Inc., incorporated on November 12, 1993, is a supplier of aggregates products (crushed stone, sand, and gravel) used for the construction of infrastructure, nonresidential, and residential projects. Aggregates products are also used for railroad ballast and in agricultural, utility and environmental applications. The Company’s Aggregates business operates through three segments: the Mid-America Group, Southeast Group and West Group. The Company’s business is categorized into Aggregates Business, Cement Business and Magnesia Specialties Business. Its Cement business is reported through the Cement segment. Its Magnesia Specialties business manufactures and markets magnesia-based chemical products used in industrial, agricultural, and environmental applications, and dolomitic lime sold to customers in the steel industry. Its Aggregates business consists of mining, processing, and selling granite, limestone, sand and gravel. Its Aggregates business also includes aggregates-related downstream product lines (including its building materials, such as asphalt products, ready mixed concrete, and road paving construction services). It is also a supplier of cement, ready mixed concrete, and asphalt and paving services. Its Cement business produces Portland and specialty cements.

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of MLM – February 2019

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $11,875,000,000 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.74 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 377.76% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 22.98 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 2.42 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.74 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 4.72 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $8.27
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $318.32
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade C+
MG Value based on 3% Growth $119.89
MG Value based on 0% Growth $70.28
Market Implied Growth Rate 7.24%
Current Price $190.00
% of Intrinsic Value 59.69%

Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, high PEmg ratio. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the level of debt relative to the net current assets. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $3.04 in 2015 to an estimated $8.27 for 2019. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 7.24% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $123.79. The company pays a dividend of $1.84 per share, for a yield of 1% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 22.98, which was above the industry average of 20.47. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-51.44.

Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C+.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$51.44
Graham Number $123.79
PEmg 22.98
Current Ratio 1.74
PB Ratio 2.42
Current Dividend $1.84
Dividend Yield 0.97%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 3

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2018
Total Current Assets $1,365,816,000
Total Current Liabilities $786,750,000
Long-Term Debt $2,730,439,000
Total Assets $9,551,419,000
Intangible Assets $2,900,400,000
Total Liabilities $4,602,007,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 62,918,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $8.60
Dec2018 $7.43
Dec2017 $11.25
Dec2016 $6.63
Dec2015 $4.29
Dec2014 $2.71
Dec2013 $2.61
Dec2012 $1.83
Dec2011 $1.78
Dec2010 $2.10
Dec2009 $1.91
Dec2008 $4.18
Dec2007 $6.06
Dec2006 $5.29
Dec2005 $4.08
Dec2004 $2.66
Dec2003 $1.91
Dec2002 $1.77
Dec2001 $2.19
Dec2000 $2.39
Dec1999 $2.68

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $8.27
Dec2018 $7.56
Dec2017 $6.91
Dec2016 $4.37
Dec2015 $3.04
Dec2014 $2.34
Dec2013 $2.12
Dec2012 $2.04
Dec2011 $2.50
Dec2010 $3.21
Dec2009 $3.94
Dec2008 $4.79
Dec2007 $4.73
Dec2006 $3.76
Dec2005 $2.83
Dec2004 $2.20
Dec2003 $2.04

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Martin Marietta Materials Inc Valuation – May 2018 $MLM
Martin Marietta Materials Inc Valuation – December 2016 $MLM
Martin Marietta Materials Inc Valuation – August 2016 $MLM
Martin Marietta Materials Inc Valuation – February 2016 Update $MLM
Martin Marietta Materials Inc. Valuation – October 2015 Update $MLM

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Lennar Corp Valuation – February 2019 $LEN
Vulcan Materials Co Valuation – February 2019 $VMC
PulteGroup Inc Valuation – January 2019 $PHM
Sherwin-Williams Co Valuation – January 2019 $SHW
Johnson Controls International PC Valuation – January 2019 $JCI
Cummins Inc Valuation – January 2019 $CMI
Flowserve Corp Valuation – January 2019 $FLS
Home Depot Inc Valuation – November 2018 $HD
Cavco Industries Inc Valuation – September 2018 $CVCO
LGI Homes Inc Valuation – September 2018 $LGIH

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Martin Marietta Materials Inc Valuation – May 2018 $MLM

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Martin Marietta Materials, Inc., incorporated on November 12, 1993, is a supplier of aggregates products (crushed stone, sand, and gravel) used for the construction of infrastructure, nonresidential, and residential projects. Aggregates products are also used for railroad ballast and in agricultural, utility and environmental applications. The Company’s Aggregates business operates through three segments: the Mid-America Group, Southeast Group and West Group. The Company’s business is categorized into Aggregates Business, Cement Business and Magnesia Specialties Business. Its Cement business is reported through the Cement segment. Its Magnesia Specialties business manufactures and markets magnesia-based chemical products used in industrial, agricultural, and environmental applications, and dolomitic lime sold to customers in the steel industry. Its Aggregates business consists of mining, processing, and selling granite, limestone, sand and gravel. Its Aggregates business also includes aggregates-related downstream product lines (including its building materials, such as asphalt products, ready mixed concrete, and road paving construction services). It is also a supplier of cement, ready mixed concrete, and asphalt and paving services. Its Cement business produces Portland and specialty cements.

MLM Chart

MLM data by YCharts

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of MLM – May 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $12,202,862,167 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 3.79 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 346.11% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 25.20 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 2.63 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 3.79 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 1.41 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $7.73
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $297.55
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade B-
MG Value based on 3% Growth $112.07
MG Value based on 0% Growth $65.69
Market Implied Growth Rate 8.35%
Current Price $194.77
% of Intrinsic Value 65.46%

Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the level of debt relative to the net current assets. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.34 in 2014 to an estimated $7.73 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 8.35% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $115.39. The company pays a dividend of $1.72 per share, for a yield of 0.9% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 25.2, which was below the industry average of 26.36, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-26.6.

Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B-.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$26.60
Graham Number $115.39
PEmg 25.20
Current Ratio 3.79
PB Ratio 2.63
Current Dividend $1.72
Dividend Yield 0.88%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 2

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2017
Total Current Assets $2,631,160,000
Total Current Liabilities $694,216,000
Long-Term Debt $2,727,294,000
Total Assets $8,992,511,000
Intangible Assets $2,227,523,000
Total Liabilities $4,312,911,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 63,214,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $7.95
Dec2017 $11.25
Dec2016 $6.63
Dec2015 $4.29
Dec2014 $2.71
Dec2013 $2.61
Dec2012 $1.83
Dec2011 $1.78
Dec2010 $2.10
Dec2009 $1.91
Dec2008 $4.18
Dec2007 $6.06
Dec2006 $5.29
Dec2005 $4.08
Dec2004 $2.66
Dec2003 $1.91
Dec2002 $1.77
Dec2001 $2.19
Dec2000 $2.39
Dec1999 $2.68
Dec1998 $2.48

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $7.73
Dec2017 $6.91
Dec2016 $4.37
Dec2015 $3.04
Dec2014 $2.34
Dec2013 $2.12
Dec2012 $2.04
Dec2011 $2.50
Dec2010 $3.21
Dec2009 $3.94
Dec2008 $4.79
Dec2007 $4.73
Dec2006 $3.76
Dec2005 $2.83
Dec2004 $2.20
Dec2003 $2.04
Dec2002 $2.17

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Martin Marietta Materials Inc Valuation – December 2016 $MLM
Martin Marietta Materials Inc Valuation – August 2016 $MLM
Martin Marietta Materials Inc Valuation – February 2016 Update $MLM
Martin Marietta Materials Inc. Valuation – October 2015 Update $MLM
Martin Marietta Materials Inc. Analysis – Initial Coverage $MLM

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Fluor Corporation Valuation – April 2018 $FLR
Lennar Corp Valuation – April 2018 $LEN
Vulcan Materials Co Valuation – April 2018 $VMC
PulteGroup Inc Valuation – March 2018 $PHM
Sherwin-Williams Co Valuation – March 2018 $SHW
Cummins Inc Valuation – March 2018 $CMI
Johnson Controls International PLC Valuation – March 2018 $JCI
Flowserve Corp Valuation – February 2018 $FLS
Corning Inc Valuation – February 2018 $GLW
Home Depot Inc Valuation – February 2018 $HD

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Martin Marietta Materials Inc Valuation – December 2016 $MLM

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – December 2016.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Martin Marietta Materials Inc (MLM) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. is a supplier of aggregates products (crushed stone, sand and gravel) for the construction industry, used for the construction of infrastructure, non-residential, and residential projects. The Company operates through three businesses: Aggregates Business, Cement Business and Magnesia Specialties Business. The Company conducts its Aggregates business through three segments: the Mid-America Group, Southeast Group, and West Group. The Company’s Cement business operates through the Cement segment. The Company’s Magnesia Specialties segment includes its magnesia-based chemicals and dolomitic lime businesses. Its Aggregates Business is engaged in mining, processing and selling granite, limestone, sand, gravel and other aggregate products. Its Cement business is engaged in producing Portland and specialty cements. In addition, aggregates products are used for railroad ballast and in agricultural, utility and environmental applications.

MLM Chart

MLM data by YCharts

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To read the details of this valuation, you must be logged in as a premium member. If you are not a premium member, please consider becoming one.

Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Recent valuations of the components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average are available for free members, including this one of Microsoft Corporation.  In addition, here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.

[/level-free]
[not-level-free]

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of MLM – December 2016

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $14,524,343,710 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.97 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 12.10% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 51.68 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 3.46 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.97 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 2.62 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $4.36
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $167.96
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade C-
MG Value based on 3% Growth $63.26
MG Value based on 0% Growth $37.08
Market Implied Growth Rate 21.59%
Current Price $225.45
% of Intrinsic Value 134.23%

Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the level of debt relative to the net current assets. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.04 in 2012 to an estimated $4.36 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 21.59% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $98.75. The company pays a dividend of $1.62 per share, for a yield of 0.7% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 51.68, which was above the industry average of 28.49. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-31.8.

Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C-.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$31.80
Graham Number $98.75
PEmg 51.68
Current Ratio 1.97
PB Ratio 3.46
Current Dividend $1.62
Dividend Yield 0.72%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 1

[/not-level-free]

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 9/1/2016
Total Current Assets $1,191,525,000
Total Current Liabilities $604,909,000
Long-Term Debt $1,536,810,000
Total Assets $7,373,201,000
Intangible Assets $2,231,532,000
Total Liabilities $3,217,869,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 63,723,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $6.62
Dec2015 $4.29
Dec2014 $2.71
Dec2013 $2.61
Dec2012 $1.83
Dec2011 $1.78
Dec2010 $2.10
Dec2009 $1.91
Dec2008 $4.18
Dec2007 $6.06
Dec2006 $5.29
Dec2005 $4.08
Dec2004 $2.66
Dec2003 $1.91
Dec2002 $1.77
Dec2001 $2.19
Dec2000 $2.39
Dec1999 $2.68
Dec1998 $2.48
Dec1997 $2.13
Dec1996 $1.71

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $4.36
Dec2015 $3.04
Dec2014 $2.34
Dec2013 $2.12
Dec2012 $2.04
Dec2011 $2.50
Dec2010 $3.21
Dec2009 $3.94
Dec2008 $4.79
Dec2007 $4.73
Dec2006 $3.76
Dec2005 $2.83
Dec2004 $2.20
Dec2003 $2.04
Dec2002 $2.17
Dec2001 $2.38
Dec2000 $2.41

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Martin Marietta Materials Inc Valuation – February 2016 Update $MLM
Martin Marietta Materials Inc. Valuation – October 2015 Update $MLM
Martin Marietta Materials Inc. Analysis – Initial Coverage $MLM

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Quanta Services Inc Valuation – August 2016 $PWR
Jacobs Engineering Group Inc Valuation – August 2016 $JEC
PPG Industries Inc Valuation – August 2016 $PPG
D.R. Horton Inc Valuation – August 2016 $DHI
Martin Marietta Materials Inc Valuation – August 2016 $MLM
Fluor Corporation Valuation – August 2016 $FLR
Vulcan Materials Co Valuation – July 2016 $VMC
PulteGroup Inc Valuation – July 2016 $PHM
Sherwin-Williams Co Valuation – July 2016 $SHW
Cummins Inc Valuation – July 2016 $CMI

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Martin Marietta Materials Inc Valuation – August 2016 $MLM

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Companies Benjamin Graham Would Invest In Today - July 2016.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Martin Marietta Materials Inc (MLM) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. is a supplier of aggregates products (crushed stone, sand and gravel) for the construction industry, used for the construction of infrastructure, non-residential, and residential projects. The Company operates through three businesses: Aggregates Business, Cement Business and Magnesia Specialties Business. The Company conducts its Aggregates business through three segments: the Mid-America Group, Southeast Group, and West Group. The Company’s Cement business operates through the Cement segment. The Company’s Magnesia Specialties segment includes its magnesia-based chemicals and dolomitic lime businesses. Its Aggregates Business is engaged in mining, processing and selling granite, limestone, sand, gravel and other aggregate products. Its Cement business is engaged in producing Portland and specialty cements. In addition, aggregates products are used for railroad ballast and in agricultural, utility and environmental applications.

MLM Chart

MLM data by YCharts

[level-free]
To read the details of this valuation, you must be logged in as a premium member. If you are not a premium member, please consider becoming one.

Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Here is a free sample valuation pdf, and here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.

[/level-free]
[not-level-free]

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of MLM – August 2016

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $12,572,246,422 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.86 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 13.89% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 44.64 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 3.15 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.86 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 2.96 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

MLM value chart August 2016

EPSmg $4.44
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $171.04
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade C-
MG Value based on 3% Growth $64.42
MG Value based on 0% Growth $37.76
Market Implied Growth Rate 18.07%
Current Price $198.31
% of Intrinsic Value 115.94%

Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the level of debt relative to the net current assets. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.04 in 2012 to an estimated $4.44 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 18.07% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $98.75. The company pays a dividend of $1.6 per share, for a yield of 0.8% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 44.64, which was above the industry average of 28.02. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-32.88.

Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C-.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

MLM charts August 2016

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$32.88
Graham Number $98.75
PEmg 44.64
Current Ratio 1.86
PB Ratio 3.15
Current Dividend $1.60
Dividend Yield 0.81%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

[/not-level-free]

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 6/1/2016
Total Current Assets $1,121,929,000
Total Current Liabilities $601,604,000
Long-Term Debt $1,541,062,000
Total Assets $7,233,305,000
Intangible Assets $2,201,110,000
Total Liabilities $3,219,853,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 63,802,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $6.86
Dec2015 $4.29
Dec2014 $2.71
Dec2013 $2.61
Dec2012 $1.83
Dec2011 $1.78
Dec2010 $2.10
Dec2009 $1.91
Dec2008 $4.20
Dec2007 $6.06
Dec2006 $5.29
Dec2005 $4.08
Dec2004 $2.66
Dec2003 $1.91
Dec2002 $1.77
Dec2001 $2.19
Dec2000 $2.39
Dec1999 $2.68
Dec1998 $2.48
Dec1997 $2.13
Dec1996 $1.71

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $4.44
Dec2015 $3.04
Dec2014 $2.34
Dec2013 $2.12
Dec2012 $2.04
Dec2011 $2.50
Dec2010 $3.21
Dec2009 $3.95
Dec2008 $4.80
Dec2007 $4.73
Dec2006 $3.76
Dec2005 $2.83
Dec2004 $2.20
Dec2003 $2.04
Dec2002 $2.17
Dec2001 $2.38
Dec2000 $2.41

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Martin Marietta Materials Inc Valuation – February 2016 Update $MLM
Martin Marietta Materials Inc. Valuation – October 2015 Update $MLM
Martin Marietta Materials Inc. Valuation – October 2015 Update $MLM
Martin Marietta Materials Inc. Analysis – Initial Coverage $MLM

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Fluor Corporation Valuation – August 2016 $FLR
Vulcan Materials Co Valuation – July 2016 $VMC
PulteGroup Inc Valuation – July 2016 $PHM
Sherwin-Williams Co Valuation – July 2016 $SHW
Cummins Inc Valuation – July 2016 $CMI
Corning Inc Valuation – May 2016 $GLW
Flowserve Corporation Valuation – May 2016 $FLS
Lennar Corporation Valuation – May 2016 $LEN
Quanta Services Inc Valuation – February 2016 $PWR
Martin Marietta Materials Inc Valuation – February 2016 Update $MLM

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Martin Marietta Materials Inc Valuation – February 2016 Update $MLM

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Companies Benjamin Graham Would Invest In Today – February 2016.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Martin Marietta Materials Inc (MLM) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. is a supplier of aggregates products (crushed stone, sand, and gravel) and heavy building materials (cement) for the construction industry, including infrastructure, non-residential, residential, railroad ballast, agricultural and chemical grade stone used in environmental applications. The Company operates through three businesses: Aggregates Business, Cement Business and Magnesia Specialties Business. The Company’s Aggregates Business is engaged in mining, processing and selling granite, limestone, sand, gravel and other aggregate products. The Company’s Cement Business is engaged in producing Portland and specialty cements, such as masonry and oil well cements. The Company’s Magnesia Specialties Business includes magnesia-based chemicals and dolomitic lime businesses.

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Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Here is a free sample valuation pdf, and here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of MLM – February 2016

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $8,015,139,929 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 2.85 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -38.83% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 41.48 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.96 Pass
Score
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 2.85 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 1.46 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

MLM value Chart February 2016

EPSmg $3.00
MG Growth Estimate 3.03%
MG Value $43.68
Opinion Overvalued
MG Value based on 3% Growth $43.51
MG Value based on 0% Growth $25.51
Market Implied Growth Rate 16.49%
Current Price $124.47
% of Intrinsic Value 284.97%

Martin Marietta Materials Inc qualifies for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years, and the high PB ratio.  The Enterprising Investor is only initially concerned by the level of debt relative to the net current assets.  As a result, Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with further research into the company.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.50 in 2011 to an estimated $3.00 for 2015.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 16.49% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

MLM Charts February 2016

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$23.03
Graham Number $77.75
PEmg 41.48
Current Ratio 2.85
PB Ratio 1.96
Dividend Yield 1.29%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

 

[/not-level-free]

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information Sep2015
Total Current Assets $1,641,971,000
Total Current Liabilities $575,392,000
Long-Term Debt $1,557,616,000
Total Assets $7,438,448,000
Intangible Assets $2,131,200,000
Total Liabilities $3,187,566,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 67,108,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $4.18
Dec2014 $2.71
Dec2013 $2.61
Dec2012 $1.83
Dec2011 $1.78
Dec2010 $2.10
Dec2009 $1.91
Dec2008 $4.18
Dec2007 $6.06
Dec2006 $5.29
Dec2005 $4.08
Dec2004 $2.66
Dec2003 $1.91
Dec2002 $1.77
Dec2001 $2.19
Dec2000 $2.39
Dec1999 $2.68
Dec1998 $2.48
Dec1997 $2.13
Dec1996 $1.71

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.00
Dec2014 $2.34
Dec2013 $2.12
Dec2012 $2.04
Dec2011 $2.50
Dec2010 $3.21
Dec2009 $3.94
Dec2008 $4.79
Dec2007 $4.73
Dec2006 $3.76
Dec2005 $2.83
Dec2004 $2.20
Dec2003 $2.04
Dec2002 $2.17
Dec2001 $2.38
Dec2000 $2.41
Dec1999 $2.21

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Martin Marietta Materials Inc. Valuation – October 2015 Update $MLM
Martin Marietta Materials Inc. Analysis – Initial Coverage $MLM

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Fluor Corp Valuation – February 2016 Update $FLR
Jacobs Engineering Group Inc Valuation – January 2016 Update $JEC
Lowe’s Companies Inc Valuation – January 2016 Update $LOW
PulteGroup Inc Valuation – January 2016 Update $PHM
Flowserve Corp Valuation – November 2015 Update $FLS
Lennar Corporation Valuation – November 2015 Update $LEN
Home Depot Inc. Valuation – November 2015 Update $HD
Quanta Services Inc. Valuation – October 2015 Update $PWR
Fluor Corporation Valuation – October 2015 Update $FLR
Martin Marietta Materials Inc. Valuation – October 2015 Update $MLM

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Martin Marietta Materials Inc. Valuation – October 2015 Update $MLM

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – September 2015.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Martin Marietta Materials Inc. (MLM) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. is a supplier of aggregates products (crushed stone, sand, and gravel) and heavy building materials (cement) for the construction industry, including infrastructure, non-residential, residential, railroad ballast, agricultural and chemical grade stone used in environmental applications. The Company operates through three businesses: Aggregates Business, Cement Business and Magnesia Specialties Business. The Company’s Aggregates Business is engaged in mining, processing and selling granite, limestone, sand, gravel and other aggregate products. The Company’s Cement Business is engaged in producing Portland and specialty cements, such as masonry and oil well cements. The Company’s Magnesia Specialties Business includes magnesia-based chemicals and dolomitic lime businesses.

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To read the details of this valuation, you must be logged in as a premium member. If you are not a premium member, please consider becoming one.

Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Here is a free sample valuation pdf, and here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of MLM – October 2015

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $10,097,760,194 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 4.85 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -35.99% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 47.88 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 2.37 Pass
Score
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 4.85 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 1.17 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

MLM value Chart October 2015

EPSmg $3.15
MG Growth Estimate 3.91%
MG Value $51.36
Opinion Overvalued
MG Value based on 3% Growth $45.64
MG Value based on 0% Growth $26.75
Market Implied Growth Rate 19.69%
Current Price $150.71
% of Intrinsic Value 293.44%

Martin Marietta Materials Inc. qualifies for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned by the insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years along with the high PEmg ratio, while the Enterprising Investor is only concerned by the level of debt relative to the net current assets.  As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with further research into the company.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.50 in 2011 to an estimated $3.15 for 2015.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 19.69% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Martin Marietta Materials Inc. (MLM)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

MLM Charts October 2015

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$21.08
Graham Number $81.77
PEmg 47.88
Current Ratio 4.85
PB Ratio 2.37
Dividend Yield 1.06%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

 

[/level-mg-stocks-screens-subscriber]

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Total Current Assets $1,765,249,000
Total Current Liabilities $363,834,000
Long-Term Debt $1,642,035,000
Total Assets $7,499,654,000
Intangible Assets $2,133,124,000
Total Liabilities $3,190,881,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 67,633,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $4.62
Dec14 $2.71
Dec13 $2.61
Dec12 $1.83
Dec11 $1.78
Dec10 $2.10
Dec09 $1.91
Dec08 $4.18
Dec07 $6.06
Dec06 $5.29
Dec05 $4.08
Dec04 $2.66
Dec03 $1.91
Dec02 $1.77
Dec01 $2.19
Dec00 $2.39
Dec99 $2.68
Dec98 $2.48
Dec97 $2.13
Dec96 $1.71
Dec95 $1.47

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.15
Dec14 $2.34
Dec13 $2.12
Dec12 $2.04
Dec11 $2.50
Dec10 $3.21
Dec09 $3.94
Dec08 $4.79
Dec07 $4.73
Dec06 $3.76
Dec05 $2.83
Dec04 $2.20
Dec03 $2.04
Dec02 $2.17
Dec01 $2.38
Dec00 $2.41
Dec99 $2.31

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Martin Marietta Materials Inc. Analysis – Initial Coverage $MLM

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Jacobs Engineering Group Analysis – October 2015 Update $JEC
D.R. Horton Inc. Analysis – October 2015 Update $DHI
The Best Companies of the Construction Industry – October 2015
Mohawk Industries Inc. Analysis – October 2015 Update $MHK
PulteGroup Inc. Analysis – October 2015 Update $PHM
Masco Corporation Analysis – September 2015 Update $MAS
Flowserve Corporation Analysis – August 2015 Update $FLS
Alexander & Baldwin Inc Analysis – Initial Coverage $ALEX
Lennar Corporation Analysis – August 2015 Update $LEN
Aecom Analysis – Initial Coverage $ACM

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Martin Marietta Materials Inc. Analysis – Initial Coverage $MLM

MLMcompanylogoBenjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 5 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – July 2015.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Martin Marietta Materials Inc. (MLM) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. is a supplier of aggregates products (crushed stone, sand, and gravel) and heavy building materials (cement) for the construction industry, including infrastructure, non-residential, residential, railroad ballast, agricultural and chemical grade stone used in environmental applications. The Company operates through three businesses: Aggregates Business, Cement Business and Magnesia Specialties Business. The Company’s Aggregates Business is engaged in mining, processing and selling granite, limestone, sand, gravel and other aggregate products. The Company’s Cement Business is engaged in producing Portland and specialty cements, such as masonry and oil well cements. The Company’s Magnesia Specialties Business includes magnesia-based chemicals and dolomitic lime businesses.

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To read the rest of this valuation, you must be logged in as a premium member. If you are not a premium member, please consider becoming one.
[/level-free]
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Defensive Investor – must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 4/7

  1. Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion - PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – current ratio greater than 2 - PASS
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years - PASS
  4. Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years - PASS
  5. Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period - FAIL
  6. Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 - FAIL
  7. Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 - FAIL

Enterprising Investor – must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 4/5

  1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – current ratio greater than 1.5 - PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 - FAIL
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years - PASS
  4. Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend - PASS
  5. Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago - PASS

Valuation Summary

Key Data:

Recent Price $161.05
MG Value $56.52
MG Opinion Overvalued
Value Based on 3% Growth $46.99
Value Based on 0% Growth $27.55
Market Implied Growth Rate 20.60%
Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$26.51
PEmg 49.70
Current Ratio 3.73
PB Ratio 2.51

Balance Sheet – March 2015

Current Assets $1,282,000,000
Current Liabilities $344,000,000
Total Debt $1,567,000,000
Total Assets $7,418,000,000
Intangible Assets $2,166,000,000
Total Liabilities $3,077,000,000
Outstanding Shares 67,700,000

Earnings Per Share

2015 (estimate) $4.90
2014 $2.71
2013 $2.61
2012 $1.83
2011 $1.78
2010 $2.10
2009 $1.91
2008 $4.18
2007 $6.06
2006 $5.29

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham

2015 (estimate) $3.24
2014 $2.34
2013 $2.12
2012 $2.04
2011 $2.50
2010 $3.21

Dividend History

Free Cash Flow

Conclusion:

Martin Marietta Materials Inc. qualifies for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years, as well as the high PEmg and PB ratios.  The Enterprising Investor is only initially concerned by the level of debt relative to the net current assets.  As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with the evaluation.  As for a valuation, the company appears to be overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.50 in 2011 to an estimated $3.24 for 2015.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 20.6% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Martin Marietta Materials Inc. (MLM)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Disclaimer:  The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  Logo taken from Wikipedia for the sole purpose of identifying the company; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.

[/level-mg-stocks-screens-subscriber]

Home Depot Inc Valuation – April 2019 #HD

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): The Home Depot, Inc. (The Home Depot), incorporated on June 29, 1978, is a home improvement retailer. The Company sells an assortment of building materials, home improvement products, and lawn and garden products, and provides various services. The Home Depot stores averaged approximately 104,000 square feet of enclosed space, with over 24,000 additional square feet of outside garden area, as of January 29, 2017. The Home Depot stores serve three primary customer groups: do-it-yourself (DIY) customers, do-it-for-me (DIFM) customers and professional customers. The Company had approximately 2,278 stores located throughout the United States, including the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and the territories of the United States Virgin Islands and Guam, Canada and Mexico, as of January 29, 2017.

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of HD – April 2019

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $223,054,839,544 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.11 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 257.09% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 23.75 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 -120.72 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.11 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 14.79 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $8.51
MG Growth Estimate 14.05%
MG Value $311.32
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade C-
MG Value based on 3% Growth $123.35
MG Value based on 0% Growth $72.31
Market Implied Growth Rate 7.63%
Current Price $202.06
% of Intrinsic Value 64.90%

Home Depot Inc does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $4.39 in 2016 to an estimated $8.51 for 2020. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 7.63% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Home Depot Inc revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $0. The company pays a dividend of $4.12 per share, for a yield of 2% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 23.75, which was above the industry average of 21.52. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-24.38.

Home Depot Inc receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C-.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$24.38
Graham Number $0.00
PEmg 23.75
Current Ratio 1.11
PB Ratio -120.72
Current Dividend $4.12
Dividend Yield 2.04%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 9

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 1/1/2019
Total Current Assets $18,529,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $16,716,000,000
Long-Term Debt $26,807,000,000
Total Assets $44,003,000,000
Intangible Assets $2,252,000,000
Total Liabilities $45,881,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 1,122,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $9.69
Jan2019 $9.73
Jan2018 $7.29
Jan2017 $6.45
Jan2016 $5.46
Jan2015 $4.71
Jan2014 $3.76
Jan2013 $3.00
Jan2012 $2.47
Jan2011 $2.01
Jan2010 $1.57
Jan2009 $1.34
Jan2008 $2.37
Jan2007 $2.79
Jan2006 $2.72
Jan2005 $2.26
Jan2004 $1.88
Jan2003 $1.56
Jan2002 $1.29
Jan2001 $1.10
Jan2000 $1.00

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $8.51
Jan2019 $7.52
Jan2018 $6.12
Jan2017 $5.25
Jan2016 $4.39
Jan2015 $3.64
Jan2014 $2.92
Jan2013 $2.36
Jan2012 $2.01
Jan2011 $1.86
Jan2010 $1.91
Jan2009 $2.15
Jan2008 $2.50
Jan2007 $2.46
Jan2006 $2.18
Jan2005 $1.81
Jan2004 $1.51

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Home Depot Inc Valuation – November 2018 $HD
Home Depot Inc Valuation – February 2018 $HD
Home Depot Inc Valuation – February 2017 $HD
Home Depot Inc. Valuation – November 2015 Update $HD
30 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 11/15/14

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Lowe’s Companies Inc Valuation – March 2019 #LOW
Quanta Services Inc Valuation – March 2019 #PWR
Mohawk Industries Inc Valuation – March 2019 #MHK
Jacobs Engineering Group Inc Valuation – March 2019 #JEC
Masco Corp Valuation – February 2019 $MAS
D.R. Horton Inc Valuation – February 2019 $DHI
Martin Marietta Materials Inc Valuation – February 2019 $MLM
Fluor Corp Valuation – February 2019 $FLR
Lennar Corp Valuation – February 2019 $LEN
Vulcan Materials Co Valuation – February 2019 $VMC

Disclaimer:

The author held a long position in HD but did not hold a position in any other company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Lowe’s Companies Inc Valuation – March 2019 #LOW

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Lowe’s Companies, Inc. (Lowe’s), incorporated on August 1, 1952, is a home improvement company. The Company operates approximately 2,370 home improvement and hardware stores. The Company offers a range of products for maintenance, repair, remodeling and decorating. The Company offers home improvement products in categories, including Lumber and Building Materials; Tools and Hardware; Appliances; Fashion Fixtures; Rough Plumbing and Electrical; Lawn and Garden; Seasonal and Outdoor Living; Paint; Flooring; Millwork, and Kitchens. The Company also supports the communities that focus on K-12 public education and community improvement projects. The Company serves its customers in the United States, Canada and Mexico.

LOW Chart

LOW data by YCharts

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of LOW – March 2019

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $84,769,831,466 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 0.98 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 184.80% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 25.07 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 23.25 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 0.98 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 -53.50 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $4.22
MG Growth Estimate 11.58%
MG Value $133.62
Opinion Fairly Valued
MG Grade C-
MG Value based on 3% Growth $61.19
MG Value based on 0% Growth $35.87
Market Implied Growth Rate 8.28%
Current Price $105.79
% of Intrinsic Value 79.17%

Lowe’s Companies, Inc. does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Fairly Valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.38 in 2016 to an estimated $4.22 for 2020. This level of demonstrated earnings growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 8.28% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value within a margin of safety relative to the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Lowe’s Companies, Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $24.75. The company pays a dividend of $1.85 per share, for a yield of 1.7% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 25.07, which was above the industry average of 20.99. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-20.77.

Lowe’s Companies, Inc. receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C-.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$20.77
Graham Number $24.75
PEmg 25.07
Current Ratio 0.98
PB Ratio 23.25
Current Dividend $1.85
Dividend Yield 1.75%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 20

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 1/1/2019
Total Current Assets $14,228,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $14,497,000,000
Long-Term Debt $14,391,000,000
Total Assets $34,508,000,000
Intangible Assets $303,000,000
Total Liabilities $30,864,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 801,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $6.00
Jan2019 $2.84
Jan2018 $4.09
Jan2017 $3.47
Jan2016 $2.73
Jan2015 $2.71
Jan2014 $2.14
Jan2013 $1.69
Jan2012 $1.43
Jan2011 $1.42
Jan2010 $1.21
Jan2009 $1.49
Jan2008 $1.86
Jan2007 $1.99
Jan2006 $1.73
Jan2005 $1.35
Jan2004 $1.13
Jan2003 $0.93
Jan2002 $0.65
Jan2001 $0.52
Jan2000 $0.44

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $4.22
Jan2019 $3.28
Jan2018 $3.34
Jan2017 $2.82
Jan2016 $2.38
Jan2015 $2.10
Jan2014 $1.72
Jan2013 $1.49
Jan2012 $1.42
Jan2011 $1.47
Jan2010 $1.55
Jan2009 $1.71
Jan2008 $1.75
Jan2007 $1.61
Jan2006 $1.33
Jan2005 $1.06
Jan2004 $0.85

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Best Dividend Paying Stocks for Dividend Growth Investors – February 2019
Best Dividend Paying Stocks for Dividend Growth Investors – August 2018
Best Dividend Paying Stocks for Dividend Growth Investors – June 2018
Lowe’s Companies Inc Valuation – June 2018 $LOW
Lowe’s Companies Inc Valuation – March 2017 $LOW

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Quanta Services Inc Valuation – March 2019 #PWR
Mohawk Industries Inc Valuation – March 2019 #MHK
Jacobs Engineering Group Inc Valuation – March 2019 #JEC
Masco Corp Valuation – February 2019 $MAS
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Martin Marietta Materials Inc Valuation – February 2019 $MLM
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Lennar Corp Valuation – February 2019 $LEN
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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Quanta Services Inc Valuation – March 2019 #PWR

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Quanta Services, Inc. (Quanta), incorporated on August 19, 1997, is a provider of specialty contracting services, offering infrastructure solutions primarily to the electric power and oil and gas industries in the United States, Canada and Australia, and selected other international markets. The Company operates through two segments: Electric Power Infrastructure Services, and Oil and Gas Infrastructure Services. The services it provides include the design, installation, upgrade, repair and maintenance of infrastructure within each of the industries it serves, such as electric power transmission and distribution networks, substation facilities, renewable energy facilities, pipeline transmission and distribution systems and facilities, and infrastructure services for the offshore and inland water energy markets.

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of PWR – March 2019

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $4,963,069,313 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.84 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 158.99% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 15.34 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.47 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.84 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.68 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $2.28
MG Growth Estimate 7.85%
MG Value $55.18
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade B+
MG Value based on 3% Growth $33.07
MG Value based on 0% Growth $19.39
Market Implied Growth Rate 3.42%
Current Price $34.99
% of Intrinsic Value 63.41%

Quanta Services Inc is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, poor dividend history. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.5 in 2015 to an estimated $2.28 for 2019. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 3.42% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Quanta Services Inc revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $41.66. The company pays a dividend of $0.04 per share, for a yield of 0.1% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 15.34, which was below the industry average of 20.99, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-0.95.

Quanta Services Inc performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B+.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$0.95
Graham Number $41.66
PEmg 15.34
Current Ratio 1.84
PB Ratio 1.47
Current Dividend $0.04
Dividend Yield 0.11%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 1

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2018
Total Current Assets $3,326,104,000
Total Current Liabilities $1,806,127,000
Long-Term Debt $1,040,532,000
Total Assets $7,075,787,000
Intangible Assets $2,180,059,000
Total Liabilities $3,470,334,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 151,310,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.30
Dec2018 $1.90
Dec2017 $2.00
Dec2016 $1.26
Dec2015 $1.59
Dec2014 $1.35
Dec2013 $1.87
Dec2012 $1.44
Dec2011 $0.62
Dec2010 $0.72
Dec2009 $0.81
Dec2008 $0.87
Dec2007 $0.89
Dec2006 $0.15
Dec2005 $0.25
Dec2004 -$0.08
Dec2003 -$0.30
Dec2002 -$7.77
Dec2001 $1.10
Dec2000 $1.42
Dec1999 $0.67

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.28
Dec2018 $1.72
Dec2017 $1.63
Dec2016 $1.46
Dec2015 $1.50
Dec2014 $1.37
Dec2013 $1.28
Dec2012 $0.96
Dec2011 $0.74
Dec2010 $0.76
Dec2009 $0.72
Dec2008 $0.59
Dec2007 $0.36
Dec2006 -$0.46
Dec2005 -$0.96
Dec2004 -$1.42
Dec2003 -$1.72

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Quanta Services Inc Valuation – May 2018 $PWR
14 Best Stocks for Value Investors This Week – 2/11/17
Quanta Services Inc Valuation – February 2017 $PWR
15 Best Undervalued Stocks of the Week – 8/20/16
Quanta Services Inc Valuation – August 2016 $PWR

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Mohawk Industries Inc Valuation – March 2019 #MHK
Jacobs Engineering Group Inc Valuation – March 2019 #JEC
Masco Corp Valuation – February 2019 $MAS
D.R. Horton Inc Valuation – February 2019 $DHI
Martin Marietta Materials Inc Valuation – February 2019 $MLM
Fluor Corp Valuation – February 2019 $FLR
Lennar Corp Valuation – February 2019 $LEN
Vulcan Materials Co Valuation – February 2019 $VMC
PulteGroup Inc Valuation – January 2019 $PHM
Sherwin-Williams Co Valuation – January 2019 $SHW

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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