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Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc Valuation – February 2019 $VRTX

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, incorporated on January 4, 1989, is engaged in discovering, developing, manufacturing and commercializing medicines for serious diseases. The Company is focused on developing and commercializing therapies for the treatment of cystic fibrosis (CF) and advancing its research and development programs in other indications. The Company’s marketed medicines are ORKAMBI and KALYDECO. ORKAMBI (lumacaftor in combination with ivacaftor) is approved as a treatment for patients having two copies (homozygous) of the Delta-F508 (F508del) mutation in their cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator (CFTR) gene. KALYDECO (ivacaftor) is approved for the treatment of CF patients having the G551D mutation or other specified mutations in their CFTR gene.

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of VRTX – February 2019

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $47,416,062,908 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 5.17 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -405.57% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 56.08 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 10.89 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 5.17 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.00 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Fail
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $3.31
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $127.56
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade F
MG Value based on 3% Growth $48.04
MG Value based on 0% Growth $28.16
Market Implied Growth Rate 23.79%
Current Price $185.82
% of Intrinsic Value 145.67%

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the lack of earnings stability over the last five years, and the lack of dividends. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $-2.06 in 2015 to an estimated $3.31 for 2019. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 23.79% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $36.92. The company does not pay a dividend. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 56.08, which was above the industry average of 39.51. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $7.28.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of F.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) $7.28
Graham Number $36.92
PEmg 56.08
Current Ratio 5.17
PB Ratio 10.89
Current Dividend $0.00
Dividend Yield 0.00%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2018
Total Current Assets $3,702,290,000
Total Current Liabilities $715,482,000
Long-Term Debt $0
Total Assets $6,245,898,000
Intangible Assets $50,384,000
Total Liabilities $1,810,695,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 259,812,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.49
Dec2018 $8.09
Dec2017 $1.04
Dec2016 -$0.46
Dec2015 -$2.31
Dec2014 -$3.14
Dec2013 -$1.98
Dec2012 -$0.50
Dec2011 $0.14
Dec2010 -$3.77
Dec2009 -$3.71
Dec2008 -$3.27
Dec2007 -$3.03
Dec2006 -$1.83
Dec2005 -$2.28
Dec2004 -$2.12
Dec2003 -$2.56
Dec2002 -$1.43
Dec2001 -$0.89
Dec2000 -$0.51
Dec1999 -$0.80

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.31
Dec2018 $2.36
Dec2017 -$0.79
Dec2016 -$1.69
Dec2015 -$2.06
Dec2014 -$1.91
Dec2013 -$1.52
Dec2012 -$1.60
Dec2011 -$2.34
Dec2010 -$3.43
Dec2009 -$3.11
Dec2008 -$2.71
Dec2007 -$2.41
Dec2006 -$2.08
Dec2005 -$2.09
Dec2004 -$1.83
Dec2003 -$1.53

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc Valuation – April 2018 $VRTX
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc Valuation – August 2016 $VRTX
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Analysis – July 2015 Update $VRTX
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Annual Valuation – 2014 $VRTX

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Perrigo Company Valuation – February 2019 $PRGO
Eli Lilly and Co Valuation – January 2019 $LLY
Zoetis Inc Valuation – January 2019 $ZTS
Gilead Sciences Inc Valuation – January 2019 $GILD
Pfizer Inc Valuation – November 2018 $PFE
Nektar Therapeutics Valuation – November 2018 $NKTR
Merck & Co Inc Valuation – November 2018 $MRK
Ligand Pharmaceuticals Inc Valuation – September 2018 $LGND
Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc Valuation – August 2018 $SUPN
Lannett Co Inc Valuation – August 2018 $LCI

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc Valuation – April 2018 $VRTX

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, incorporated on January 4, 1989, is engaged in discovering, developing, manufacturing and commercializing medicines for serious diseases. The Company is focused on developing and commercializing therapies for the treatment of cystic fibrosis (CF) and advancing its research and development programs in other indications. The Company’s marketed medicines are ORKAMBI and KALYDECO. ORKAMBI (lumacaftor in combination with ivacaftor) is approved as a treatment for patients having two copies (homozygous) of the Delta-F508 (F508del) mutation in their cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator (CFTR) gene. KALYDECO (ivacaftor) is approved for the treatment of CF patients having the G551D mutation or other specified mutations in their CFTR gene.

VRTX Chart

VRTX data by YCharts

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of VRTX – April 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $40,264,575,551 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 3.28 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -143.46% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 299.57 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 20.39 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 3.28 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.00 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Fail
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $0.54
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $20.71
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade F
MG Value based on 3% Growth $7.80
MG Value based on 0% Growth $4.57
Market Implied Growth Rate 145.54%
Current Price $161.17
% of Intrinsic Value 778.11%

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the lack of earnings stability over the last five years, and the lack of dividends. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $-1.91 in 2014 to an estimated $0.54 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 145.54% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $21.69. The company does not pay a dividend. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 299.57, which was above the industry average of 29.14. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $4.41.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of F.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) $4.41
Graham Number $21.69
PEmg 299.57
Current Ratio 3.28
PB Ratio 20.39
Current Dividend $0.00
Dividend Yield 0.00%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2017
Total Current Assets $2,648,963,000
Total Current Liabilities $807,260,000
Long-Term Debt $0
Total Assets $3,546,014,000
Intangible Assets $79,384,000
Total Liabilities $1,517,435,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 256,615,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.61
Dec2017 $1.04
Dec2016 -$0.46
Dec2015 -$2.31
Dec2014 -$3.14
Dec2013 -$1.98
Dec2012 -$0.50
Dec2011 $0.14
Dec2010 -$3.77
Dec2009 -$3.71
Dec2008 -$3.27
Dec2007 -$3.03
Dec2006 -$1.83
Dec2005 -$2.28
Dec2004 -$2.12
Dec2003 -$2.56
Dec2002 -$1.43
Dec2001 -$0.89
Dec2000 -$0.51
Dec1999 -$0.80
Dec1998 -$0.65

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $0.54
Dec2017 -$0.79
Dec2016 -$1.69
Dec2015 -$2.06
Dec2014 -$1.91
Dec2013 -$1.52
Dec2012 -$1.60
Dec2011 -$2.34
Dec2010 -$3.43
Dec2009 -$3.11
Dec2008 -$2.71
Dec2007 -$2.41
Dec2006 -$2.08
Dec2005 -$2.09
Dec2004 -$1.83
Dec2003 -$1.53
Dec2002 -$0.97

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc Valuation – August 2016 $VRTX
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Analysis – July 2015 Update $VRTX
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Annual Valuation – 2014 $VRTX

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

AmerisourceBergen Corp Valuation – April 2018 $ABC
Perrigo Company PLC Valuation – April 2018 $PRGO
AbbVie Inc Valuation – April 2018 $ABBV
Eli Lilly and Co. Valuation – March 2018 $LLY
Zoetis Inc Valuation – March 2018 $ZTS
Gilead Sciences Inc Valuation – March 2018 $GILD
Pfizer Inc Valuation – February 2018 $PFE
Merck & Co Inc Valuation – February 2018 $MRK
Johnson & Johnson Valuation – February 2018 $JNJ
Bristol-Myers Squibb Co Valuation – September 2017 $BMY

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc Valuation – August 2016 $VRTX

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – August 2016.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRTX) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated is engaged in the business of discovering, developing, manufacturing and commercializing medicines for serious diseases. The Company operates in pharmaceuticals segment. Its business is focused on developing and commercializing therapies for the treatment of cystic fibrosis (CF) and advancing its research and development programs in other indications. Its marketed medicines are ORKAMBI and KALYDECO, which are approved to treat patients with CF having specific mutations in their CF transmembrane conductance regulator (CFTR) gene. It has multiple development programs in the field of CF, including VX-661, VX-371, and VX-152 and VX-440. It is engaged in various other research and mid- and early-stage development programs, such as programs in the areas of oncology, pain and neurology. Its oncology drug candidates include VX-970, VX-803 and VX-984; pain drug candidates include VX-150 and VX-241, and acute spinal cord injury drug candidate include VX-210.

VRTX Chart

VRTX data by YCharts

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Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Recent valuations of the components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average are available for free members, including this one of Microsoft Corporation.  In addition, here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of VRTX – August 2016

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $23,974,743,678 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 2.33 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -45.95% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 -63.54 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 24.19 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 2.33 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.09 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Fail
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

VRTX value chart August 2016

EPSmg -$1.53
MG Growth Estimate 0.64%
MG Value $0.00
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade D
MG Value based on 3% Growth -$22.16
MG Value based on 0% Growth -$12.99
Market Implied Growth Rate -36.02%
Current Price $97.09
% of Intrinsic Value N/A

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, the poor dividend history, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the lack of earnings stability over the last five years, and the lack of dividends. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $-1.6 in 2012 to an estimated $-1.53 for 2016. This level of negative earnings does not support a positive valuation.As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $1.89. The company does not pay a dividend. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was -63.54, which was below the industry average of 38.69, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-0.46.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

VRTX charts August 2016

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$0.46
Graham Number $1.89
PEmg -63.54
Current Ratio 2.33
PB Ratio 24.19
Current Dividend $0.00
Dividend Yield 0.00%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

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Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 6/1/2016
Total Current Assets $1,454,150,000
Total Current Liabilities $622,855,000
Long-Term Debt $74,921,000
Total Assets $2,548,982,000
Intangible Assets $334,724,000
Total Liabilities $1,567,628,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 244,482,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $0.04
Dec2015 -$2.31
Dec2014 -$3.14
Dec2013 -$1.98
Dec2012 -$0.50
Dec2011 $0.14
Dec2010 -$3.77
Dec2009 -$3.71
Dec2008 -$3.27
Dec2007 -$3.03
Dec2006 -$1.83
Dec2005 -$2.28
Dec2004 -$2.12
Dec2003 -$2.56
Dec2002 -$1.43
Dec2001 -$0.89
Dec2000 -$0.51
Dec1999 -$0.80
Dec1998 -$0.65
Dec1997 -$0.41
Dec1996 -$1.07

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate -$1.53
Dec2015 -$2.06
Dec2014 -$1.91
Dec2013 -$1.52
Dec2012 -$1.60
Dec2011 -$2.34
Dec2010 -$3.43
Dec2009 -$3.11
Dec2008 -$2.71
Dec2007 -$2.41
Dec2006 -$2.08
Dec2005 -$2.09
Dec2004 -$1.83
Dec2003 -$1.53
Dec2002 -$0.97
Dec2001 -$0.71
Dec2000 -$0.64

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Analysis – July 2015 Update $VRTX
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Annual Valuation – 2014 $VRTX

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Amgen Inc Valuation – August 2016 $AMGN
Pfizer Inc Valuation – August 2016 $PFE
Abbott Laboratories Valuation – August 2016 $ABT
Johnson & Johnson Valuation – August 2016 $JNJ
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc Valuation – August 2016 $REGN
AmerisourceBergen Corp Valuation – July 2016 $ABC
Perrigo Co PLC Valuation – July 2016 $PRGO
AbbVie Inc Valuation – July 2016 $ABBV
Gilead Sciences Inc Valuation – July 2016 $GILD
Eli Lilly and Company Valuation – July 2016 $LLY

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Analysis – July 2015 Update $VRTX

VertexPharma-logo2Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 5 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – July 2015.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (Vertex) is a global biotechnology company. The Company is engaged in the business of discovering, developing, manufacturing and commercializing small molecule drugs. The Company uses precision medicine approaches to create transformative drugs for patients with serious diseases in specialty markets. Vertex’s business is focused on developing and commercializing therapies for the treatment of cystic fibrosis (CF). It is also engaged in other research and early-stage development programs, including programs in the areas of oncology and neurology. The Company’s product candidates include KALYDECO (ivacaftor), Lumacaftor in combination with Ivacaftor, VX-661 in combination with Ivacaftor, VX-803, VX-970 and VX-222. The Company’s product KALYDECO is available in the market.

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Defensive Investor – must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 2/7

  1. Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion - PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – current ratio greater than 2 - PASS
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years - FAIL
  4. Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years - FAIL
  5. Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period - FAIL
  6. Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 - FAIL
  7. Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 - FAIL

Enterprising Investor – must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 3/5

  1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – current ratio greater than 1.5 - PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 - PASS
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years - FAIL
  4. Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend - FAIL
  5. Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago - PASS

Valuation Summary

Key Data:

Recent Price $133.39
MG Value $0.00
MG Opinion Overvalued
Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) $0.70
Current Ratio 4.49
PB Ratio 32.72

Balance Sheet – March 2015

Current Assets $1,358,200,000
Current Liabilities $302,400,000
Total Debt $785,700,000
Total Assets $2,165,800,000
Intangible Assets $68,900,000
Total Liabilities $1,189,400,000
Outstanding Shares 239,500,000

Earnings Per Share

2015 (estimate) -$1.90
2014 -$3.14
2013 -$1.98
2012 -$0.50
2011 $0.14
2010 -$3.77
2009 -$3.71
2008 -$3.27
2007 -$3.03
2006 -$1.83
2005 -$2.28

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham

2015 (estimate) -$1.92
2014 -$1.91
2013 -$1.52
2012 -$1.60
2011 -$2.34
2010 -$3.43

Dividend History
Vertex Pharmaceuticals does not pay a dividend.

Conclusion:

Vertex Pharmaceuticals does not qualify for either the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings growth or stability over the last ten years, the lack of dividends, as well as the poor PEmg and PB ratios.  The Enterprising Investor is concerned with the lack of dividends and lack of earnings stability over the last five years.  As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should explore other opportunities or proceed with a speculative attitude.  As for a valuation, the company appears to be overvalued due to its negative EPSmg.  The fact the company is regularly losing money leads the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, to return an estimate of intrinsic value falling below the price.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Disclaimer:  The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  Logo taken from Wikipedia for the sole purpose of identifying the company; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.

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Vertex Pharmaceuticals Annual Valuation – 2014 $VRTX

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 5 Highest Dividend Yields Among Undervalued Companies for the Enterprising Investor.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a specific look at how Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (Vertex) is in the business of discovering, developing, manufacturing and commercializing small molecule drugs for the treatment of serious diseases. The Company’s two products are INCIVEK (telaprevir), which is approved for the treatment of patients with genotype 1 hepatitis C virus (HCV), infection, and KALYDECO (ivacaftor), which is approved in the United States for the treatment of patients six years of age and older with cystic fibrosis (CF), who have at least one copy of the G551D mutation in the cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator (CFTR), gene. The Company has ongoing clinical programs involving drug candidates intended for the treatment of HCV infection, CF, rheumatoid arthritis, influenza and epilepsy. INCIVEK (telaprevir) achieved initial commercial acceptance following its approval in May 2011. It started marketing KALYDECO in the United States in January 2012.

VRTX Chart

VRTX data by YCharts

Defensive Investor – must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 2/7

  1. Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion – PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – current ratio greater than 2 - PASS
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years - FAIL
  4. Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years - FAIL
  5. Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period - FAIL
  6. Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 – FAIL
  7. Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 – FAIL

Enterprising Investor – must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 3/5

  1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – current ratio greater than 1.5 – PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 – PASS
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years – FAIL
  4. Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend - FAIL
  5. Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago – PASS

Valuation Summary

Key Data:

Recent Price $93.77
MG Opinion Overvalued
Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) $1.96
Current Ratio 3.83
PB Ratio 17.99

Balance Sheet – 3/31/2014

Current Assets $1,430,300,000
Current Liabilities $373,500,000
Total Debt $522,900,000
Total Assets $2,197,100,000
Intangible Assets $31,000,000
Total Liabilities $966,200,000
Outstanding Shares 236,200,000

Earnings Per Share

2014 (estimate) -$3.28
2013 -$1.98
2012 -$0.50
2011 $0.14
2010 -$3.77
2009 -$3.71
2008 -$3.27
2007 -$3.03
2006 -$1.84
2005 -$2.28
2004 -$2.12

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham

2014 (estimate) -$1.95
2013 -$1.52
2012 -$1.60
2011 -$2.34
2010 -$3.43
2009 -$3.11

Conclusion:

 

Vertex Pharmaceuticals does not qualify for either the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor. The Defensive Investor has major concerns with the lack of earnings stability over the last ten years, the lack of dividends, the insufficient earnings growth, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns with the lack of dividend payments and the insufficient earnings stability over the last five years. As a result, value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should explore other opportunities such as through a review of ModernGraham’s valuation of Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and ModernGraham’s valuation of Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY). As for a valuation, the company appears significantly overvalued considering it has not earned a profit in all but one of the last ten years. Such a demonstrated result does not fare well in the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s valuation formula.

 

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Disclaimer:  The author did not hold a position in Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) or in any other company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  Logo taken from wikipedia for the sole purpose of identifying the company; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.

Bristol-Myers Squibb Co Valuation – April 2019 #BMY

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Bristol-Myers Squibb Company, incorporated on August 11, 1933, is engaged in the discovery, development, licensing, manufacturing, marketing, distribution and sale of biopharmaceutical products. The Company’s pharmaceutical products include chemically synthesized drugs, or small molecules, and products produced from biological processes called biologics. Small molecule drugs are administered orally in the form of a pill or tablet. Biologics are administered to patients through injections or by infusion. The Company’s products include Empliciti, Opdivo, Sprycel, Yervoy, Eliquis, Orencia, Baraclude, Hepatitis C Franchise, Reyataz Franchise and Sustiva Franchise. It offers products for a range of therapeutic classes, which include virology, including human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection; oncology; immunoscience, and cardiovascular. Its products are sold to wholesalers, retail pharmacies, hospitals, government entities and the medical profession across the world.

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of BMY – April 2019

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $76,654,092,495 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.61 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 51.08% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 17.33 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 5.44 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.61 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.87 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $2.71
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $104.21
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade B
MG Value based on 3% Growth $39.25
MG Value based on 0% Growth $23.01
Market Implied Growth Rate 4.42%
Current Price $46.91
% of Intrinsic Value 45.02%

Bristol-Myers Squibb Co is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, high PB ratio. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.24 in 2015 to an estimated $2.71 for 2019. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 4.42% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Bristol-Myers Squibb Co revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $28.16. The company pays a dividend of $1.61 per share, for a yield of 3.4%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 17.33, which was below the industry average of 45.96, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-2.26.

Bristol-Myers Squibb Co performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$2.26
Graham Number $28.16
PEmg 17.33
Current Ratio 1.61
PB Ratio 5.44
Current Dividend $1.61
Dividend Yield 3.43%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 12

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2018
Total Current Assets $17,160,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $10,654,000,000
Long-Term Debt $5,646,000,000
Total Assets $34,986,000,000
Intangible Assets $7,629,000,000
Total Liabilities $20,859,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 1,637,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $4.10
Dec2018 $3.01
Dec2017 $0.61
Dec2016 $2.65
Dec2015 $0.93
Dec2014 $1.20
Dec2013 $1.54
Dec2012 $1.16
Dec2011 $2.16
Dec2010 $1.79
Dec2009 $5.34
Dec2008 $2.62
Dec2007 $1.09
Dec2006 $0.81
Dec2005 $1.52
Dec2004 $1.21
Dec2003 $1.59
Dec2002 $1.06
Dec2001 $0.95
Dec2000 $1.84
Dec1999 $1.81

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.71
Dec2018 $1.90
Dec2017 $1.36
Dec2016 $1.65
Dec2015 $1.24
Dec2014 $1.45
Dec2013 $1.85
Dec2012 $2.21
Dec2011 $2.69
Dec2010 $2.74
Dec2009 $2.91
Dec2008 $1.61
Dec2007 $1.15
Dec2006 $1.20
Dec2005 $1.35
Dec2004 $1.29
Dec2003 $1.37

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Bristol-Myers Squibb Company Valuation – June 2018 $BMY
Bristol-Myers Squibb Co Valuation – September 2017 $BMY
Bristol-Myers Squibb Company Valuation – February 2016 $BMY
27 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 12/20/14
Bristol-Myers Squibb Company Annual Valuation – 2014 $BMY

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Biogen Inc Valuation – March 2019 #BIIB
Mylan NV Valuation – March 2019 #MYL
Celgene Corp Valuation – March 2019 #CELG
Amgen Inc Valuation – March 2019 #AMGN
AbbVie Inc Valuation – March 2019 #ABBV
Allergan PLC Valuation – February 2019 $AGN
Incyte Corp Valuation – February 2019 $INCY
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc Valuation – February 2019 $REGN
Alexion Pharmaceuticals Inc Valuation – February 2019 $ALXN
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc Valuation – February 2019 $VRTX

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Biogen Inc Valuation – March 2019 #BIIB

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Biogen Inc., incorporated on April 1, 1997, is a biopharmaceutical company. The Company focuses on discovering, developing, manufacturing and delivering therapies to people living with serious neurological, rare and autoimmune diseases. The Company markets products, including TECFIDERA, AVONEX, PLEGRIDY, TYSABRI, ZINBRYTA and FAMPYRA for multiple sclerosis (MS), FUMADERM for the treatment of severe plaque psoriasis and SPINRAZA for the treatment of spinal muscular atrophy (SMA). The Company also has a collaboration agreement with Genentech, Inc. (Genentech), a member of the Roche Group, with respect to RITUXAN for the treatment of non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma, chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) and other conditions, GAZYVA indicated for the treatment of CLL and follicular lymphoma, and other anti-CD20 therapies.

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of BIIB – March 2019

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $46,257,034,108 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 2.32 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 314.38% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 11.41 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 3.61 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 2.32 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 1.37 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Fail
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $20.61
MG Growth Estimate 12.91%
MG Value $707.38
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade B
MG Value based on 3% Growth $298.87
MG Value based on 0% Growth $175.20
Market Implied Growth Rate 1.45%
Current Price $235.16
% of Intrinsic Value 33.24%

Biogen Inc qualifies for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor. The Defensive Investor is only initially concerned with the poor dividend history. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the net current assets, and the lack of dividends. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $11.08 in 2015 to an estimated $20.61 for 2019. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 1.45% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Biogen Inc revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $202.57. The company does not pay a dividend. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 11.41, which was below the industry average of 47.6, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-23.06.

Biogen Inc performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$23.06
Graham Number $202.57
PEmg 11.41
Current Ratio 2.32
PB Ratio 3.61
Current Dividend $0.00
Dividend Yield 0.00%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2018
Total Current Assets $7,640,900,000
Total Current Liabilities $3,295,200,000
Long-Term Debt $5,936,500,000
Total Assets $25,288,900,000
Intangible Assets $8,826,400,000
Total Liabilities $12,257,300,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 200,200,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $27.58
Dec2018 $21.58
Dec2017 $11.92
Dec2016 $16.93
Dec2015 $15.34
Dec2014 $12.37
Dec2013 $7.81
Dec2012 $5.76
Dec2011 $5.04
Dec2010 $3.94
Dec2009 $3.35
Dec2008 $2.65
Dec2007 $1.99
Dec2006 $0.63
Dec2005 $0.47
Dec2004 $0.07
Dec2003 -$4.92
Dec2002 $0.85
Dec2001 $1.78
Dec2000 $0.72
Dec1999 $0.47

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $20.61
Dec2018 $16.63
Dec2017 $13.73
Dec2016 $13.63
Dec2015 $11.08
Dec2014 $8.29
Dec2013 $5.90
Dec2012 $4.68
Dec2011 $3.89
Dec2010 $3.04
Dec2009 $2.34
Dec2008 $1.61
Dec2007 $0.61
Dec2006 -$0.25
Dec2005 -$0.58
Dec2004 -$0.83
Dec2003 -$0.93

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Biogen Inc Valuation – June 2018 $BIIB
Biogen Inc Valuation – July 2017 $BIIB
Biogen Inc Valuation – February 2016 Update $BIIB
13 Best Stocks For Value Investors This Week – 10/17/15
Biogen Inc. Valuation – October 2015 Update $BIIB

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Mylan NV Valuation – March 2019 #MYL
Celgene Corp Valuation – March 2019 #CELG
Amgen Inc Valuation – March 2019 #AMGN
AbbVie Inc Valuation – March 2019 #ABBV
Allergan PLC Valuation – February 2019 $AGN
Incyte Corp Valuation – February 2019 $INCY
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc Valuation – February 2019 $REGN
Alexion Pharmaceuticals Inc Valuation – February 2019 $ALXN
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc Valuation – February 2019 $VRTX
Perrigo Company Valuation – February 2019 $PRGO

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Mylan NV Valuation – March 2019 #MYL

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Mylan N.V., incorporated on July 7, 2014, is a global pharmaceutical company. The Company develops, licenses, manufactures, markets and distributes generic, brand name and over-the-counter (OTC) products in a range of dosage forms and therapeutic categories. It operates through three segments on a geographic basis, North America, Europe and Rest of World. The Company’s Cold-EEZE family of brands includes OTC cold remedies sold as lozenges, gummies, oral sprays, caplets, QuickMelts and oral liquid dose forms in the United States. The North America segment is primarily made up of its operations in the United States and Canada. The Europe segment is made up its operations in approximately 35 countries within the region. The Rest of World segment is primarily made up of its operations in India, Australia, Japan and New Zealand. Also included in the Rest of World segment are its operations in markets, which include countries in Africa (including South Africa), as well as Brazil and other countries throughout Asia and the Middle East. The Company conducts active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) business through Mylan Laboratories Limited (Mylan India). As of December 31, 2016, it offers product portfolios, including approximately 7,500 marketed products around the world, to customers in over 165 countries and territories. It operates a global vertically integrated manufacturing platform around the world and API operations. It also operates research and development (R&D) network that delivers product pipeline, including a range of dosage forms, therapeutic categories and biosimilars.

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of MYL – March 2019

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $14,663,296,197 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.39 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 78.36% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 13.86 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.21 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.39 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 7.39 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Fail
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $2.05
MG Growth Estimate 2.18%
MG Value $26.36
Opinion Fairly Valued
MG Grade C
MG Value based on 3% Growth $29.73
MG Value based on 0% Growth $17.43
Market Implied Growth Rate 2.68%
Current Price $28.42
% of Intrinsic Value 107.80%

Mylan NV does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, poor dividend history. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets, and the lack of dividends. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Fairly Valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.79 in 2015 to an estimated $2.05 for 2019. This level of demonstrated earnings growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 2.68% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value within a margin of safety relative to the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Mylan NV revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $46.77. The company does not pay a dividend. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 13.86, which was below the industry average of 47.6, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-27.49.

Mylan NV receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$27.49
Graham Number $46.77
PEmg 13.86
Current Ratio 1.39
PB Ratio 1.21
Current Dividend $0.00
Dividend Yield 0.00%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2018
Total Current Assets $6,367,700,000
Total Current Liabilities $4,587,800,000
Long-Term Debt $13,161,200,000
Total Assets $32,734,900,000
Intangible Assets $23,412,400,000
Total Liabilities $20,567,800,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 516,500,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $4.12
Dec2018 $0.68
Dec2017 $1.30
Dec2016 $0.92
Dec2015 $1.70
Dec2014 $2.34
Dec2013 $1.58
Dec2012 $1.52
Dec2011 $1.22
Dec2010 $0.68
Dec2009 $0.30
Dec2008 -$1.05
Mar2007 $0.99
Mar2006 $0.79
Mar2005 $0.74
Mar2004 $1.21
Mar2003 $0.96
Mar2002 $0.91
Mar2001 $0.13
Mar2000 $0.52
Mar1999 $0.41

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.05
Dec2018 $1.14
Dec2017 $1.44
Dec2016 $1.54
Dec2015 $1.79
Dec2014 $1.71
Dec2013 $1.29
Dec2012 $0.94
Dec2011 $0.57
Dec2010 $0.28
Dec2009 $0.17
Dec2008 $0.25
Mar2007 $0.91
Mar2006 $0.89
Mar2005 $0.89
Mar2004 $0.89
Mar2003 $0.68

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Mylan NV Valuation – June 2018 $MYL
Mylan NV Valuation – March 2017 $MYL
Mylan NV Valuation – January 2016 Update $MYL
32 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 12/6/14
Mylan Inc. Annual Valuation – 2014 $MYL

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Amgen Inc Valuation – March 2019 #AMGN
AbbVie Inc Valuation – March 2019 #ABBV
Allergan PLC Valuation – February 2019 $AGN
Incyte Corp Valuation – February 2019 $INCY
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc Valuation – February 2019 $REGN
Alexion Pharmaceuticals Inc Valuation – February 2019 $ALXN
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc Valuation – February 2019 $VRTX
Perrigo Company Valuation – February 2019 $PRGO
Eli Lilly and Co Valuation – January 2019 $LLY
Zoetis Inc Valuation – January 2019 $ZTS

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Celgene Corp Valuation – March 2019 #CELG

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Celgene Corporation, incorporated on April 17, 1986, is an integrated global biopharmaceutical company. The Company, together with its subsidiaries, is engaged in the discovery, development and commercialization of therapies for the treatment of cancer and inflammatory diseases through solutions in protein homeostasis, immuno-oncology, epigenetics, immunology and neuro-inflammation. The Company’s commercial-stage products include REVLIMID (lenalidomide), POMALYST/IMNOVID (pomalidomide), OTEZLA (apremilast), ABRAXANE (paclitaxel albumin-bound particles for injectable suspension), VIDAZA, azacitidine for injection (generic version of VIDAZA) and THALOMID (thalidomide). Its clinical trial activity includes trials across the disease areas of hematology, solid tumors, and inflammation and immunology. The Company also markets ISTODAX, which is an epigenetic modifier.

CELG Chart

CELG data by YCharts

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of CELG – March 2019

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $61,820,626,782 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 2.23 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 391.91% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 14.21 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 10.20 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 2.23 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 3.95 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Fail
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $6.19
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $238.39
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade C-
MG Value based on 3% Growth $89.78
MG Value based on 0% Growth $52.63
Market Implied Growth Rate 2.86%
Current Price $88.00
% of Intrinsic Value 36.91%

Celgene Corporation does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the poor dividend history, and the high PB ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the net current assets, and the lack of dividends. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.94 in 2015 to an estimated $6.19 for 2019. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 2.86% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Celgene Corporation revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $45.81. The company does not pay a dividend. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 14.21, which was below the industry average of 47.6, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-28.36.

Celgene Corporation receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C-.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$28.36
Graham Number $45.81
PEmg 14.21
Current Ratio 2.23
PB Ratio 10.20
Current Dividend $0.00
Dividend Yield 0.00%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2018
Total Current Assets $9,067,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $4,057,000,000
Long-Term Debt $19,769,000,000
Total Assets $35,480,000,000
Intangible Assets $24,216,000,000
Total Liabilities $29,319,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 714,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $10.60
Dec2018 $5.51
Dec2017 $3.64
Dec2016 $2.49
Dec2015 $1.94
Dec2014 $2.39
Dec2013 $1.68
Dec2012 $1.65
Dec2011 $1.43
Dec2010 $0.94
Dec2009 $0.83
Dec2008 -$1.73
Dec2007 $0.27
Dec2006 $0.09
Dec2005 $0.09
Dec2004 $0.08
Dec2003 $0.04
Dec2002 -$0.15
Dec2001 $0.00
Dec2000 -$0.03
Dec1999 -$0.05

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $6.19
Dec2018 $3.72
Dec2017 $2.70
Dec2016 $2.16
Dec2015 $1.94
Dec2014 $1.83
Dec2013 $1.47
Dec2012 $1.11
Dec2011 $0.68
Dec2010 $0.23
Dec2009 -$0.11
Dec2008 -$0.47
Dec2007 $0.14
Dec2006 $0.06
Dec2005 $0.04
Dec2004 $0.00
Dec2003 -$0.03

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Celgene Corp Valuation – June 2018 $CELG
Celgene Corporation Valuation – March 2017 $CELG
Celgene Corp Valuation – December 2015 Update $CELG
Celgene Corporation Analysis – September 2015 Update $CELG
Celgene Corporation Stock Analysis – May 2015 Quarterly Update

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Amgen Inc Valuation – March 2019 #AMGN
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Alexion Pharmaceuticals Inc Valuation – February 2019 $ALXN
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Perrigo Company Valuation – February 2019 $PRGO
Eli Lilly and Co Valuation – January 2019 $LLY
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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Amgen Inc Valuation – March 2019 #AMGN

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Amgen Inc., incorporated on October 31, 1986, is a biotechnology company. The Company discovers, develops, manufactures and delivers various human therapeutics. The Company operates in the human therapeutics segment. The Company’s marketed products portfolio includes Neulasta (pegfilgrastim); erythropoiesis-stimulating agents (ESAs), such as Aranesp (darbepoetin alfa) and EPOGEN (epoetin alfa); Sensipar/Mimpara (cinacalcet); XGEVA (denosumab); Prolia (denosumab); NEUPOGEN (filgrastim), and other marketed products, such as KYPROLIS (carfilzomib), Vectibix (panitumumab), Nplate (romiplostim), Repatha (evolocumab), BLINCYTO (blinatumomab), IMLYGIC (talimogene laherparepvec) and Corlanor (ivabradine). The Company focuses its research and development on human therapeutics for the treatment of serious illness in the areas of oncology/hematology, cardiovascular disease, inflammation, bone health, nephrology and neuroscience.

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of AMGN – March 2019

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $116,179,300,700 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 2.79 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 99.02% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 18.15 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 9.57 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 2.79 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 1.22 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $10.29
MG Growth Estimate 6.62%
MG Value $223.61
Opinion Fairly Valued
MG Grade B-
MG Value based on 3% Growth $149.20
MG Value based on 0% Growth $87.46
Market Implied Growth Rate 4.82%
Current Price $186.70
% of Intrinsic Value 83.49%

Amgen, Inc. is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the poor dividend history, and the high PB ratio. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the level of debt relative to the net current assets. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Fairly Valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $7.14 in 2015 to an estimated $10.29 for 2019. This level of demonstrated earnings growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 4.82% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value within a margin of safety relative to the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Amgen, Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $76.93. The company pays a dividend of $5.28 per share, for a yield of 2.8%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 18.15, which was below the industry average of 47.6, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-25.43.

Amgen, Inc. performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B-.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$25.43
Graham Number $76.93
PEmg 18.15
Current Ratio 2.79
PB Ratio 9.57
Current Dividend $5.28
Dividend Yield 2.83%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 8

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2018
Total Current Assets $37,618,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $13,488,000,000
Long-Term Debt $29,510,000,000
Total Assets $66,416,000,000
Intangible Assets $22,142,000,000
Total Liabilities $53,916,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 641,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $13.25
Dec2018 $12.62
Dec2017 $2.69
Dec2016 $10.24
Dec2015 $9.06
Dec2014 $6.70
Dec2013 $6.64
Dec2012 $5.52
Dec2011 $4.04
Dec2010 $4.79
Dec2009 $4.51
Dec2008 $3.77
Dec2007 $2.82
Dec2006 $2.48
Dec2005 $2.93
Dec2004 $1.81
Dec2003 $1.69
Dec2002 -$1.21
Dec2001 $1.03
Dec2000 $1.05
Dec1999 $1.02

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $10.29
Dec2018 $8.63
Dec2017 $6.78
Dec2016 $8.42
Dec2015 $7.14
Dec2014 $5.97
Dec2013 $5.43
Dec2012 $4.73
Dec2011 $4.22
Dec2010 $4.09
Dec2009 $3.60
Dec2008 $3.02
Dec2007 $2.54
Dec2006 $2.11
Dec2005 $1.70
Dec2004 $1.02
Dec2003 $0.65

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Amgen Inc Valuation – June 2018 $AMGN
6 Best Stocks for Value Investors This Week – 3/26/17
Amgen Inc Valuation – March 2017 $AMGN
21 Best Undervalued Stocks of the Week – 8/27/16
Amgen Inc Valuation – August 2016 $AMGN

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

AbbVie Inc Valuation – March 2019 #ABBV
Allergan PLC Valuation – February 2019 $AGN
Incyte Corp Valuation – February 2019 $INCY
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc Valuation – February 2019 $REGN
Alexion Pharmaceuticals Inc Valuation – February 2019 $ALXN
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc Valuation – February 2019 $VRTX
Perrigo Company Valuation – February 2019 $PRGO
Eli Lilly and Co Valuation – January 2019 $LLY
Zoetis Inc Valuation – January 2019 $ZTS
Gilead Sciences Inc Valuation – January 2019 $GILD

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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